Thursday, February 27, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Kilmore

The Game Plan for Kilmore – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
We’re off to central Victoria today for a nice little 8 race program. We should be able to isolate one or two races early to try and land a result through our best bet and money race before we play a little wider in the last legs of the Quaddie and try to jag a couple of value runners who are likely to go around over their true odds.

Best Bet ($50 win)
Tiavons Dream (Race 3 No.7) $4
We will kick it off in race 3 with a last-start Breeders Crown consolation winner admittedly that was back in August but this guy comes to the races today off the back of a Tabcorp Park trial just over two weeks ago. He finished a comfortable 10-metre second there in what was a slow mile rate but quick last quarter (28.93secs). He was mixing it with the likes of Daenerys Targaryen and Im Stately last preparation so if he returns to anywhere near his best he will be hard to beat.

Best Value ($10 win x $20 place)
Bronze Destiny (Race 7 No.12) $4.40
This fella may be having his first try at the tapes in well over a year but his two runs from the stand yielded a win and a third in good company. He is well and truly handicapped up to his form from the 20-metre backmark today but three runs in have produced a fourth and two narrow seconds in better class than this. He must face some seasoned stand start pacers and it’s only over 2150 metres but his talent will carry him a long way.

The Muse (Race 8 No.8) $4
This mare has shown plenty of ability in her six starts but is yet to break through for a win. In saying that she seems to race best along the pegline and if the polemarker HENS PARTY (1) can hold the top, or even if she is crossed and THE MUSE (8) ends up three back on the pegs, watch for a strong turn of foot late.

The Money Race ($50 flexi trifectas)
Race 4
We see the Australian debut of LOOKSMACHNIFICIENT (8) here for the Sugars camp and a win in New Zealand followed by a devastating turn of foot at the Melton trials suggests he could quickly work through his classes. In saying that he is not necessarily a good thing given there are some handy types in the race and he could land an awkward position in running if JAY DEE ZED (1) decides to hand up. For that reason I’m going to play two trifectas to try and turn a profit from the race.

Boxed 1,2,8 $30 gets 500%
1,2,8/1,2,8/3,4,6,9. $20 gets 83.33%

Quaddies (x4)
1,2,8/6,7,8,9/3/12. $24 gets 200%
1,2,8/6,7,8,9/1,4,5,6,7,9/12. $24 gets 33.33%
1,2,8/6,7,8,9/3/2,7,8,9,11. $20 gets 33.33%
1,2,8/6,7,8,9/1,4,5,6,7,9/2,7,8,9,11. $32 gets 8.88%

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