Friday, February 21, 2014

Good Form Peview - Friday @ HQ

The Game Plan for Tabcorp Park – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
The good news is that it’s been a profitable past couple of days. In fact we’re up $422 since Wednesday so my plan is to re-invest all that and a little bit more on our major Metropolitan meeting of the week! More than anything, tonight is a fun card for punting so while we may not make our fortune we will get to be involved in seven of the 10 races and hopefully make some sort of profit w/ the Game Plan outlined below.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
Vox Populi (Race 1 no. 13) $1.90
Anybody who religiously follows the Trots would have seen this bloke produce a Herculean performance when missing the start hopelessly last Saturday night at Ballarat and still rallying late to jag second place. We can sometimes overrate how good those kinds of runs are but his effort was out of this world and he’ll win here if he does everything right.

Best Value ($15 Each Way)
Bon Jovi (Race 4 no. 5) $7.50
This is a pretty speculative investment because the only way this bloke can win is if he finds the front. Fortunately, I think there’s a great chance that will happen, even with a little speed drawn inside him, and if he does lob the top the short course trip and lack of obvious pressure will make him a massive winning hope.

Best Roughie ($5 x $15)
Shes An Image (Race 3 no. 3) $10
This is another speculative investment. Simply put, this mare should have the early speed to find the pegs first if Chris Lang really wants to and from there she can hand up to any horse she likes. It’s also worth noting that she ripped out the fastest final half in last week’s E B Cochran Cup so the fact that she was beaten so far may not mean as much as you may originally have thought.

The Money Races
Race 2
This is a very unusual race as virtually no horses off the front line have much exposed gate speed so what happens early is something of a mystery but that doesn’t change the fact that Fon Design (2), Call Me Bond (6) and The Gingerbreadman (12) are your key winning hopes and Live In Doubt (10) looks the next best horse.

2,6,12/ 2,6,10,12/ 2,6,10,12. $23 gets 127.78%
2,6,12/ 2,6,10,12/ 3,9,13. $27 gets 100%

Race 6
Two heats for this final were run last Saturday night and I’m leaning very heavily to the qualifier won by Cold Major (4) as the key form race for tonight. To that end I’m expecting Cold Major (4) to lead and win here with his only serious threat coming from the horse who finished second to him last week, Waltzing With Cullen (6).  

4/ 6/ 1,5,7,11. $20 gets 500%
4/ 1,5,7,11/ 6. $15 gets 366.67%
6/ 4/ 1,5,7,11. $10 gets 250%
6/ 1,5,7,11/ 4. $5 gets 125%

Race 10
Mister Grizzly (5) will lead here, Saab Quality (7) will sit parked and That’s Mister Ali (6) will sit off that pair and come with one big run. All things being equal they will comprise the Trifecta btu racing is racing so we’ll also have a saver.

5,6,7 Boxed. $30 gets 500%
5,6,7/ 5,6,7/ 2,4,8. $20 gets 111.11%

The Quads (x3 for $200)
1,3,5,9/ 5,7,9,11/ 4,6/ 1,10. $62 gets 96.88%
1,2,3,5,7,9/ 5,7,9,11/ 4,6/ 1,2,10. $48 gets 33.33%
Field/ 5,7,9,11/ 4,5,6,7,11/ 1,2,5,9,10. $90 gets 10%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Adam Kelly
Best Chance
Fon Design (Race 2 no.2) $3.50
“I thought she was pretty good first up and she should be fitter for that run. She mixed it with some pretty good two-year-old’s last season and I expect her to return to a similar level this time around.
“She does get off the gate pretty good so I’d be hoping she can lead and I’d say there’s no reason for her not to hold it tonight."

Lite Jagermeister (Race 4 no.3) $3.50
“I think she is probably going to need the run a little bit tonight, even with the trial under her belt, when you are in a class of race like this they can sometimes be found out at the end of the race.

“Having said that she did race through her classes last time in and I can’t see any reason why she won’t measure up to Mares’ grade this time in."

Five Star Anvil (Race 7 no.10) $3.20
“His first two runs I’ve been pretty happy with but he is a horse that follows speed well so we will be hoping they go pretty quickly early because he has a nice sprint at the end of his races.

“He got a virus a little while ago which affected him but I think he is slowly getting back to his best so hopefully he isn’t far away."

Speed Maps

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