G O O D F O R M: Good Form Preview - Hunter Cup Night @ HQ

Adam Hamilton's preview

The Game Plan for Hunter Cup Night – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
After weeks of anticipation, we’re finally here; Hunter Cup night @ Melton’s Tabcorp Park. It’s a a different type of programme to recent years w/ Vic Derby heats rather than the Vic Derby decider but it’s an absolute pearler nevertheless, with incredibly competitive racing clearly the order of the night. In a rare move, I am ignoring the exotics tonight. In a word, they are too hard for me. The depth of almost every race means that its nigh-on impossible to rule anybody out of running a drum in most races so we’d be hitting and hoping and that’s not how I play. Instead we will target a series of short-priced big guns in a potentially lucrative Formula 4 while also picking the eyes out of TAB Fixed Odds Place value & having some part in the $200K Pool Guaranteed Quads.

Best Bets
Bling It On (Race 1 no. 4) $1.25 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

If I could take just one on team McCarthy’s awesome 3YO’s home it would probably be this guy. He has very good gate speed, plenty of grit and a superior turn of foot to any other classic pacer in the land. He’ll lead and win tonight.

Allblack Stride (Race 2 no. 2) $1.20 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

The word on the street is that Luke McCarthy plans to unleash the shackles on this bloke at the start and if he leads them early on they will not run him down. Even if he can’t hold Hectorjayjay (3) early he’ll get the top at some stage so the $1.20 is short but very sweet.

My High Expectations (Race 9 no. 9) $1.80 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

There’s something about this bloke that prevents him from starting very short odds in his races but that’s great for us because he wins nonetheless. His only real stumbling block tonight is the start, because if he stays in front of Blitzthemcalder (11) and Mister Zion (12) early then the lead will eb his and the race will be too.

Kyvalley Blur (Race 9 no. 11) $1.75 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

If you were pricing this race on class, the above pacer would be $1.10. A Group 1 Bill Collins Mile winner who would have started one of the favourites in tonight’s Australasian Trotting Championship final had he chosen that path, he should be too good tonight, just with even luck.

Best Value

Holdonsu (Race 1 no. 2) - $20 Place - $7.66 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

The speed of this race isn’t terribly easy to read but if this guy can cross Thats Rite (1) before handing over to Bling It On (4) as I expect, the $7.66 will look very good indeed.

Fiery Achiever (Race 5 no. 2) - $20 Place - $7.66 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

This is the majesty of punting. I give the above pacer almost no chance of winning this race but I do think he can cross Saab Quality (1) at the start before handing over to his stablemate Alchemy (3) and if he does, then he can clearly figure on the dais.

Lightning Joy (Race 6 no. 1) - $25 Place - $5.80 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

I have already invested on this guy at $5.80 the place for the following reasons…
1) He is an excellent beginner from the tapes that looks every chance of leading for as long as he likes.
2) If he does lead he’s a super chance of being the one to hand things over to hot favourite My High Expectations (9).
3) He’s actually a very smart customer who would almost certainly fill a hole here if points 1 & 2 go to plan.

The Hunter Cup

Im Corzin Terror - $20 Win x $30 Place - ($18/$5) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

Anybody who’s heard me on any media platform this week knows that I am tipping this bloke on top and while the $21 that was on offer earlier in the week is gone I still think $15 is OK value. Don’t get me wrong, I think at least six or eight horses can win tonight’s Grand Circuit feature but this guy is a brilliant sit-sprint stayer that will only need a predicted fast tempo & a cart into the race to give you a great run for your folding.

Easy On The Eye ($18/$5) - $10 Win x $15 Place - TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

I’m not quite as keen on this bloke but I do believe he’s been badly overlooked. A blistering beginner from the tapes on his day, I think he’ll be in the firing line – or even I front – within 100m of the start and if he is. I think he’s got the staying prowess to be a massive Each Way hope.

The Quads (x2) – Click here to bet on the Quaddie now

3,6,7,9,11/ 9/ 6,7,9/ 7,9,11,12,14. $80 gets 133.33%
3,6,7,9,11/ 9/ 6,7,9/ 1,2,4,13. $20 gets 33.33%

The Game Plan for Melton with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).
Best Bets ($100 All Up Win)

(Race 1 No.4 Bling It On) $1.25 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy took out the Breeders Crown here at Melton last season. He is flying at the moment as evidenced by his blistering win at Cranbourne last start and he will be very hard to beat in the first heat of the Derby.

(Race 2 No.2 Allblack Stride) $1.20 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy’s win at Cranbourne on the same day as Bling It On was every bit as good as his stable mate. He doesn’t possess a great deal of gate speed but he should press forward here and eventually find the lead and be much too good here.

(Race 6 No.9 M High Expectations) $1.80 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy is arguably Australias best trotter currently with four dominant wins from his last four outings in very strong races. He wasn’t the best away from the tapes last start but he was good enough to recover then work around the field and find the lead and prove much too good. With a clean getaway tonight he will be very hard to beat.

Best Value

(Race 8 No.9 Restrepo) $25EW ($6 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now)
This blokes win in the Ballarat Cup last start confirmed his status as one of Australias best pacers, he sat three wide without cover for the last lap then really dug deep over the final 100m to put his neck out and win. As long as that race didn’t take too much out of him he is sure to be right in the finish again and the toughness he showed at Ballarat could be a vital weapon here.

(Race 8 No.12 Caribbean Blaster) $25EW ($7 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now)
This former Victorian Cup winner has only won the one race, the South Australian Pacing Cup in recent times but he is racing as well as he ever has. His run in the Ballarat Cup last start where narrowly defeated and he has all the credentials necessary to take this race.

(Race 9 No.13 Josephine Jones) $25W/$50P ($26 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now)
This mare was forced to work wide without cover on the last lap here last week but she never stopped trying and her effort to finish as close as she did was super. This is no doubt her toughest test and she lacks the experience of some of her rivals but she looks to have a bright future and she will go around at a very good price tonight.

The Money Race

Race 1 ($50 Flexi First 4’s) – Click here to bet on this race now
4/ 5,10/ 5,10/ 3,6,7 $30 gets 500%
4/ 5,10/ 3,6,7/ 5,10 $20 gets 333.33%

Quaddies (x2) – Click here to bet on the Quaddie now

3,6,11/ 9/ 1,5,6,7,8,10/ 2,9,11,12,14 $60 gets 66.66%
3,6,11/ 3,10,11,12/ 1,5,6,7,8,10/ 2,9,11,12,14 $40 gets 13.33%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Luke McCarthy

Best Chance

Bling It On (Race 1 no.4) $1.25 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“When you go into a race it doesn’t worry you where you’ve drawn or what the tempo is, you can just seem to make your own luck at any stage. As long as he has a bit of luck he is usually hard to beat.

“It’s hard to say who is the quickest but I think his point to point speed could be the best of the three.”

Others

Allblack Stride (Race 2 no.2) $1.20 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He has got really good gate speed but I try not to use it on him, being a colt he can fire up a little bit. I’ll use him off the arm this week, he will lead and I won’t be handing up with him.”

Lettucerockthem (Race 3 no.10) $1.60 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He was one of the two-year-old’s who was up early in the piece so to still be second in the Breeders Crown was awesome. He’s a brilliant leader but we just hope he can be effective from back in the field.

“At Melton there is absolutely nothing between my three, it will be the barrier draw and who gets the best run that will decide it.”

The Gold Ace (Race 8 no.13) $9 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I thought he was average last week. He just didn’t feel the same horse but we’ve changed a few things this week and hopefully that’s enough to turn it around.”

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Dean Braun

Best Chance

Magical Telf (Race 7 no.6) $4 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I’m not sure whether he gets that trip because he was disappointing at Horsham but back to the mile this week should help.

“He trialled well on Tuesday and we are looking forward to the race because he is a very nice horse.”

Others

Im Corzin Terror (Race 8 no.14) $18 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I’m pretty happy with where he is at, he went terrific last week; a few people were potting him but he couldn’t do much more, he ran a mile in 1:53.5 sitting parked.

“I’m not saying he is as good as horses like The Gold Ace but hopefully he can get some of the money somewhere. The draw is a little bit of a worry but I don’t think he should be $21.”
“He can work if he has to on Saturday night; we preferably don’t want to but we know if he has to he can work mid-race.

“The way the race looks like being run is pretty genuine so hopefully we can get a clean getaway and find a spot somewhere.

“I’ve got no doubt with the trip at all, and even though he hasn’t always been driven that way I still believe he is better coming from off the pace in a strongly run race.”

Blitzthemcalder (Race 6 no.11) $3.80 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“It’s his first test in that grade and last week was his first run in three weeks so I’m sure he will derive a lot of benefit from that.

“It’s a massive step-up in class compared to what he has been racing but he’s come through last week good so hopefully we have a bit of luck in running.

“I think he’s 12 months away from racing these sort of horses really but it’s all a learning experience for him.”

Duke Of The Moment (Race 6 no.2) $35 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“I said to the owners last week he would probably blow out the last 100 and he did but he’s improved off that.

“He doesn’t have the ability of some of the others but he’s got great manners so hopefully he can step to the front.”

Saab Quality (Race 5 no.1) $9 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“He went terrific last week and got home good after being dropped for speed. The good draw helps and he’s trained on really good this week."

Waikare Aristocrat (Race 9 no.7) $18 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“Kyvalley Blur is one of the best trotters here so it’s hard to see us beating him but we didn’t have a lot of luck last week so I think he is some rough hope.

Sectionals

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Ballarat last Saturday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Two Eye See: 1:53.07
Fastest Last Half – Metro Mike: 54.86secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Glenferrie Breeze: 26.09secs

Sectional Superstar

Cold Sister (Race 6 no.5) – $18 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This girl rushed home in the fastest last mile of her heat of the Australasian Trotting Champinship but not only did she do that, she sustained her fractions to finish off in the quickest last half and quickest last quarter today.

If she has any luck in running she can run a race at monster odds.

Hunter Cup Stats

*13 of the last 15 AG Hunter Cup winners were having their first start in the race. The only two winners that had raced in a Hunter Cup prior to winning in the last 15 years have been

2002 – Safe and Sound
2007 – Sting Lika Bee

*Even 7 of the last 8 runner ups were also making their Hunter Cup debut.
Using that stat the following can’t win (Pembrook Benny, The Gold Ace, Mah Sish, Smoken Up, Bitobliss, Caribbean Blaster)

*10 of the last 15 winners have been 5 or 6. No 10yo or older has managed to run a place in that time. 57.7% of all the placegetters in the past 15 years has been 5yo or 6yo.

*Seven 4yo’s have attempted to win the Hunter Cup in the past 15 years. There are no winners but the results show that their young age isn’t really a barrier.
2^nd – Sailors Corner (btn hfnk), Smiling Chard (btn 3m after being 3 wide no cover last 1200m)
3^rd – Miracle Man (held up badly, should nearly have won)
5^th – The Falcon Strike (galloped away from 10m hcp), Holmes DG (galloped away)
6^th – The Gold Ace
10^th – Napoleon (galloped away, badly held up - should’ve nearly won!!)
12^th – Cigar

*In 2014 the race will revert to a standing start free for all meaning that all horses will start from the front. This should be advantageous to the more highly assessed horses as it means they cannot be handicapped.

*In recent years the race has belonged to the Kiwis with New Zealand trained horses winning 7 of the last 10 including the last 5!

*In particular it has been the team of Tim & Anthony Butt who have partnered to win 5 of the last 10 editions of the race including winning the last three in a row with MAH SISH (2013), CHOISE ACHIEVER (2012) and STUNIN CULLEN (2011).

*This takes Anthony Butt’s record in the race to 7 having partnered super mare BLOSSOM LADY to back to back victories in 1994 and 1995. Butt is clearly the most successful driver with his 7 wins, next best of the current drivers is Chris Alford with 3.

*The key formline leading into the Hunter Cup is the Ballarat Cup with 8 of the previous 10 winners of the Hunter Cup coming from the Ballarat feature. 4 of those won the Ballarat Cup while the 3 others were placed and MISTER D G finished 4^th at Ballarat before landing the Hunter Cup spoils.

Horses with number 7, 12 and 13 have the best record over the past 15 years. Therefore we can narrow it down to......EASY ON THE EYE

More Hunter Cup Stats