The Game Plan for ID Heat Night @ Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
A few things conspired against us last night @ Ballarat but it was far from a disaster & I’m once again keen that w/ an inch of luck we can make some serious folding this evening. Once again I’m leaning heavily to exotics, but playing my 4 Money Races a little more brutally than would normally be the case. I’ve also picked out three Black Figure prospects to combine in a Formula 2 and a quartet of Quads for $150.
Best Bets/ Formula 2 ($60 gets 20 units)
Nico Serrano (Race 2 no. 2) $2.50 – Click here to bet on this horse nowThis guy has been in cracking form this campaign and was a little unlucky in a stronger race than this last time out. If he leads as expected than I think he’ll go all the way.
The Restrepo of today is a very different model to the one we saw even 3 months ago. He is not a genuine staying machine so look for him to begin quickly early and do everything possible to hold the top because if he does lead them around its hard to see him getting rolled.
This bloke doesn’t have the best figure formline but he’s been plying his trade in much harder races and back to the Claiming Grade here I think he’ll play enforcer and simply bully this lot into submission tonight.
The Money Races
Cardigan Boko (1) should take a sit behind Mister Gunsen (2) and out-sprint that guy just as he did a couple of starts back. Sundons Promise (7) and Eurasian Kosmos (8) are the other key runners but it would take a big run from either for them to get the cash.
1/ 2,7,8/ 2,7,8. $26 gets 433.33%
1/ 2,7,8/ 3,9. $12 gets 200%2,7/ 1/ 2,7,8. $8 gets 200%
2,7/ 1/ 3,9. $4 gets 100%
Race 6 + Speed Map – Click here to bet on this race now
Speed Comment
Restrepo (1) isn’t the quickest beginner of all time
but this Inter Dominion heat boats a surprisingly slow front line so he’s a
huge chance of booting through and holding the early lead. If he does, then Keayang
Cullen (8) should secure a gun run in behind the leader while class runners
Abettorpunt (9) and Caribbean Blaster (11) can either make a
mid-race move or come with one, sustained run late.
---------------------------------------------------------------Once again I am relying on a particular Speed Map scenario here but if Restrepo (1) leads
and Keayang Cullen (8) secure the trail here as I expect then the former horse should win and the later horse should share a place w/ him on the podium tonight.
1/ 8/ 11. $25 gets 2500%
1/ 11/ 8. $10 gets 1000%1/ 8/ 3,4,9. $15 gets 500%
Race 7 – Click here to bet on this race now
I’ve played a little conservatively in my Quads but if I’m being totally honest I think My High Expectations (5) is a stone cold stinking moral yet again tonight. Outside of him there are a few place chances though so we could get some value in these Tricks.
5/ 2,3,8/ 1,2,3,7,8,10. $50 gets 333.33%
5/ 7,10/ 1,2,3,7,8,10. $10 gets 100%
The Quads (x8) – Click here to bet on the quaddie now
1,3,8,9/ 2/ 1/ 5. $30 gets 750%1,3,8,9/ 2/ 8,11/ 5. $20 gets 250%
1,3,8,9/ 2/ 1/ 2,3,7,8,10. $15 gets 75%
1,3,8,9/ 2/ 8,11/ 2,3,7,8,10. $10 gets 25%
1,3,8,9/ 1,3,6,7/ 1/ 5. $24 gets 150%
1,3,8,9/ 1,3,6,7/ 8,11/ 5. $16 gets 50%
1,3,8,9/ 1,3,6,7/ 1/ 2,3,7,8,10. $20 gets 25%
1,3,8,9/ 1,3,6,7/ 8,11/ 2,3,7,8,10. $16 gets 10%
Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – David Aiken
Best Chance
My High Expectations (Race 7 no.5) $1.65 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He is in this week just to keep him tight because there was a month gap between that race and the Sydney race (Chambers Challenge).
“He was really good once he got to the front, from then on he just controlled the race and he’s come through the run really well.
“He gets out the gate good and is going good. If he can find the front that makes it easier for him but the Kiwi (Boizel) is an unknown quantity but he obviously has some ability.”
Others
Cold Sister (Race 7 no.10) $18 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“We’re just so happy with her, Nathan Jack has been driving her well and she just keeps getting home and she’s getting stronger.
“She could go to the Mares races but I bypassed it last
year and I think she’s going better this year. Hopefully she’ll get an invite
to Sydney for the Chambers Challenge.”
Cold
Major (Race 4 no.1)
$3.20 – Click here to bet on this horse now“He is up a little bit in grade but he has the good draw so he is in with a chance. He’s gotten to the metro grade pretty quickly but he is consistent and always tries."
Our Warwick Lad & Stirling Point (Race 5 no.2 & 8) $5 & $51 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a bit like Cold Major in that he is up in class but the draw is okay for him. He’s always had ability from day one so if he ran a big race it wouldn’t surprise me. Stirling Point has drawn to get a soft run but I’d say he’ll be looking for a claiming race soon."
Smudge Bromac & Wartime Sweetheart (Race 6 no.6 & 10) $61 & $51 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“They are both going pretty well but it’s a very tough race, I’m not sure if either of them can win but Wartime Sweetheart has a habit of bobbing up in good races.”
Sectionals
To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Saturday night simply click here.
As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.
Fastest Last Mile – Chilli Palmer: 1:50.88
Fastest Last Half – Chilli Palmer: 53.00secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Magical Telf: 26.10secs
Sectional Superstar
Victoria May (Race 5 no.6) – $10 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Although this mare has mixed her form a little of recent times her last effort to run home in 55.09secs suggests she is close to her best again.
Her closing fraction
of 27.64secs was also admirable in the Mares races last weekend.
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