Monday, February 10, 2014

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Warragul

The Game Plan for Warragul – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Warragul can be a very tricky track to punt at and you really have to get your Speed Maps close to spot on, but fortunately for us we have a number of races today where that should not be too difficult to do. I will be relying on those Maps, in particular knowing who the leader will be in the 3 Money Races outline d below while I’m also keen to attack 1 horse straight out and another on an Each way basis.

Best Bet ($50 win)
Jodila (Race 2 no. 3) $1.80
This mare is first-up from a spell today but she mixed it with some real top-line fillies last preparation, she has terrific early speed and she has trialled successfully in anticipation of her return. The only issue will be the start if Desert Safari (1) is desperate to hold her out because if she leads she’ll prove a class above.

Best Value
Supaliner (Race 7 no. 9) $5
Almost every horse drawn off the front line in this deep and even race possesses very good gate speed and I can see some real fireworks in the first 400m, which should set the race up for an ambush artist here. If I’ve read things right then the above pacer, who has the services of Australia’s greatest reinsman, Gavin Lang, should charge at them late and go very close to scoring.

The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
Race 2
As mentioned above, I’m pretty set on the concept that Jodila (3) will lead and win her, and if she does, then Desert Safari (1) will get the gun run in behind and looks equally likely to finish second. I’m tipping there’s a good chance this will be an entirely peg-dominated affair.

3/ 1/ 8. $12 gets 1200%
3/ 8/ 1. $6 gets 600%
3/ 1/ 2,4,9,10. $24 gets 600%
3/ 2,4,9,10/ 1. $8 gets 200%

Race 3
Live In Doubt (6) has been in outstanding form this campaign and critically, he has the speed to head these off, even from the wide front line draw. If he does spear to the top he’s likely to keep that advantage around this tight circuit but either way it’s hard to see him finishing worse than second. Fon Design (3) and Blackwarrior (7) are the other key runners.

6/ 3,7/ 3,5,7,8. $30 gets 500%
3,7/ 6/ 3,5,7,8. $20 gets 333.33%

Race 4
Apollo Thirteen (1) has been outstanding in two Victorian runs to date. He has gate speed, should make great use of the polemarking draw and if he handles the step up in distance he’ll maintain his unbeaten local record. I’m banking on the fact that Craig Demmler will see the writing on the wall soon after the start and drop in right behind the favourite with Intergalactic (2) because if he does he has a little hope of winning and a massive hope of landing second place.

1/ 2/ 3. $20 gets 2000%
1/ 2/ 4,6,7. $24 gets 800%
1/ 3/ 2. $6 gets 600%

The Quads (x4)
1/ 5,6,7/ 6/ 4,6,9. $54 gets 600%
1/ 5,6,7/ 3,5,7/ 4,6,9. $18 gets 66.67%
2,3,4/ 5,6,7/ 6/ 4,6,9. $18 gets 66.67%
1/ 5,6,7/ 6/ 1,2,3,7,8. $10 gets 66.67%

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