The feature nights @ Tabcorp Park just keep on rolling on and tonight the 3YO's will take centre stage with a vintage VHRSC Vic Derby set to be staged @ 10pm. In a rare shift away from exotics, I am focusing away from Money Races tonight as the fields are just too even to target skinny Tricks or First Fours, but I have found a tidy little All-Up plus 3 Best Value Bets, 1 Best Roughie & a quartet of Quads.
Best Bets/ All-Up ($80)
Guaranteed (Race 4 no. 6) $1.35 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
Smudge Bromac (Race 9 no. 7) $1.90 – Click here to bet on this horse now
If there was one philosophy to live by in the Victorian trots it might be that 'Class in Claimers will almost always prevail'. That's why, despite an out-dated stigma, Claimers are usually pretty good betting affairs. Tonight, we can employ the aforementioned credo by backing the above pacer who arrives here having taken on the Yarra Valley, Cobram, Bendigo and Shepparton Cups in four of his past five starts. He has also won his past two starts in Claiming Grade with relative ease and looks much too good for this lot here tonight.
Melisandre (Race 10 no. 1) $2.20 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This is the riskiest of our 3 Best Bets but I remain confident after watching this half-sister of Gotta Go Cullen spear to the lead, hand-up mid race and ultimately prove too quick for her major rival tonight in Bad Boy Cullen (3) last time out. She is in the right camp and has massive upside so I expect her to continue on her winning way tonight.
Best Value ($40 Win)
El Paco (Race 1 no. 7) $4 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Sometimes as punters, and analysts, we fall in love with horses for reasons we can't explain and for me the above trotter is one of those horses. What I do know is that he rarely, if ever, lets you down and if his recent efforts, which include a monstrous last start silver medal is anything to go by then he's in career-best form.
Steam Washed (Race 6 no. 9) $7 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
The boom has been on this mare right from her earliest days when she won six of her first seven starts. She has taken a while to really fulfil her potential but her last four starts have all beeen enormous in their own way and I think she looks ideally suited off the back row here with the likely speed war up-front early on.
Broadways Best (Race 6 no. 11) $4.20 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
Best Roughie ($10 x $30)
Arber (Race 5 no. 2) $12 – Click here to bet on this horse now
If you like backing horses at a price, then this is the guy I'd be poitning you towards tonight. A very handy customer on his day, he takes on some proper big guns here, but critically, I think on a alsowish fornt-line, he can find the peg-line first and after trialling like a demon at Ballarat recently, they may not run him down.
The Quads (x4) – Click here to bet on the Quads now
2,3,4,6/ 4,9,11/ 1,3/ 1,7,8. $72 gets 100%2,3,4,6/ 1,2,5/ 1,3/ 1,7,8. $18 gets 25%
1,8,10/ 4,9,11/ 1,3/ 1,7,8. $13.50 gets 25%
2,3,4,6/ 4,9,11/ 8/ 1,7,8. $6.50 gets 18.06%
Tabcorp
Park Trainer Talk – Emma Stewart
Best
ChanceGuaranteed (Race 4 no.6) $1.35 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a lovely horse, he’s our next up and comer we hope. His form has been good and we are just hoping he gets through and makes it into the Chariots (of Fire).
“He’s a big relaxed fella and nothing worries him too much
and he likes racing more genuine when the speeds on.
“He’s so lazy at home so he is easy to train in that way
because he doesn’t over-exert himself but he just knows how to find the line on
race day.
Others
Metro Mike (Race 5 no.3) $2.80 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I think he can go all the way, he is a really big horse but he is going to take a little bit longer because he is big and gangly and doesn’t quite know what it’s all about.
Beauty Secret (Race 6 no.4) $3.60 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“Beauty Secret just gets the job done, she’s never flashy or anything like that but every time she steps out you know what you are going to get and she always does her best.
Shake It Mama (Race 6 no.10) $9.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“Shake It Mama, she is sort of the glamour filly (mare) and she’s hot and cold. One day she’s good, one day she’s not, so you’re never really sure what you’ve got with her and she’s that way at home too, she’s quite highly strung so she can be a bit difficult.
Major Secret (Race 8 no.12) $35 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He had to sit parked in his heat run but I thought he was very good so if he can get a nice sit on the back of a good one then he should be thereabouts.
“The draw's not ideal but it is a trailing draw so hopefully
they go quick and we can be making ground late.
“His runs this prep haven’t looked great but for him he has
been doing a pretty good job because he really doesn’t like it in front and I
thought his best run was last week, he didn’t shirk it he just kept trying so
we’ll be hoping for a nice run into the race.Sectionals
To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Saturday night simply click here.
As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.
Fastest Last Mile – Pass Them By: 1:53.52 Fastest Last Half – Magical Telf: 53.92secs Fastest Last Quarter – Paua Fella: 26.32secs
Sectional Superstar Brave Wiggy (Race 7 no.3) – $2.80 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now Shane Tritton is starting to prove he knows how to place his horses extremely well, particularly when bringing them to Melton.
This guy was charging home last week with blistering splits of 55.6sec and 26.47secs but with the added advantage of the front row draw, he look mighty hard to beat tonight.
VHRSC VICTORIA DERBY STATS
·
The Victoria Derby is widely recognised as Australia’s premier event for 3YO’s. Some of the most famous winners include:
o
Garrys Advice (1982)
o
Bag Limit (1985)
o
Westburn Grant (1989)
o
Golden Reign (1993)
o
Holmes DG (1998)
o
Courage Under Fire (1999)
o
Lombo Pocket Watch (2007)
o
Sushi Sushi (2011)
·
The
most successful driver is legendary driver Vin Knight with 4 wins, best
of the current drivers are Tony Herlihy and Gavin Lang with 3 wins
followed by Chris
Alford with 2.
·
The
key formline is always the heats which are conducted the week prior to
the event. Interestingly 5 of the last 10 winners have not won their
heat, having
qualified by running in the first 4.
·
The
longest priced winner in the last 10 editions was COURAGE TO RULE
($11.00) in 2010, while LOMBO POCKET WATCH saluted at $1.40 in 2007.
This is not a race
likely to produce a blowout winner as 9 of the last 10 winner started in
single figures.
·
The
race has proven successful for horses who can race on the pace with 1
of the last 10 winners coming home late, the other 9 winners were on the
pace or leading
the majority of the way.
·
Front
row draws have been extremely positive with 7 of the last 10 winners
starting from the front, the three winners that came from the back row
made early
moves to get up on the pace.
·
The
form in January is extremely important so in making your choice look at
3YO’s from around the country (including New Zealand), the heats the
week prior
should put the pieces in place!
*64.3% of Derby winners won their heat...despite 3 of the last 4 winners not doing this (Courage
To Rule 4th, Scandalman 2nd,
Ohoka Punter 3rd)
*Only once have the three heat winners filled the trifecta (2006 – Divisive, I Am Sam, Pay Me
Christian)
*Horses that finished 4th
have only finished top 3 in the final on 3 occasions which is 7.1%
*A heat winner has at least filled one of the placings
1 of the placings – 6 times (42.9%)
2 of the placings – 7 times (50%)
All 3 of the placings – 1 time (7.1%)
*Only 23.8% of heat winners have missed a place in the final
*57.1% of the 3rd
placegetters in the final, didn’t win their heat.
*The second derby heat has supplied 6 (42.9%), the 1st
derby heat has supplied 5 winners (35.7%) while the 3rd derby heat has only supplied 3 winners (21.4%)
*No individual heat has supplied the trifecta in the final.
*This speed map is a
representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running
at the bell lap.
Speed: GAZOLINE (2) is a born leader,
especially from the tapes, who should stroll to the top here but here’ll be
plenty of mid-race moves with the class, as you’d expect, drawn off handicaps
tonight.
Likely Leader: GAZOLINE
(2)
Best Closers: EL PACO (7),
WAIKARE ARISTOCRAT (10), SHES AN IMAGE (11) and DUKE OF THE MOMENT (12)
Race 2
*This speed map is a
representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running
at the bell lap.
Speed: There
should be some fireworks at the start here with several quick beginners drawn
off the front and the speed should not let up with enforcers such as GARABALDI UNION (3), WEALLWANTANO (4) and
BOYZ TORQUE (7) all best when
putting the pressure on.
Likely Leader: GANGSTER BOY (1) or QUADENTATE (5)
Best Closers: GUMDROPS
(2), WEALLWANTANO (4), THE GOOD TIMES (9) and SCRUFFY MAJOR (11)
Race 3
*This speed map is a
representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running
at the bell lap.
Speed: MOTU YOUNG
JACOB (5) only knows one way with a saddle on his back so the speed will be
genuine for sure.
Likely Leader: MOTU
YOUNG JACOB (5)
Best Closers: Too
many X-factors to accurately predict
Race 4
*This speed map is a
representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running
at the bell lap.
Speed: At least
half the runners in this small field can fly the mobile arm so expect a genuine
early sizzle before GUARANTEED (6) rolls
around to dictate the race.
Likely Leader: GINGER
BLISS (4) or GUARANTEED (6)
Best Closer: CHILLI
PLAMER (3)
*This speed map is a
representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running
at the bell lap.
Speed: There is a
surprising lack of front line toe here but that may not stop a willing battle
for the early lead. Once they lob their spots there a couple of runners who
will want to inject some serious tempo but don’t expect a record breaking time.
Likely Leader: ARBER
(2) or METRO MIKE (3)
Best Closers: INKY
CULLEN (4), MAGICAL TELF (6) and THE
SMILER (8)
'
Race 6
*This speed map is a
representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running
at the bell lap.
Speed: They
should burn rubber here early with BLAZEAWAY
MACRAY (1) and GLIDING ROSE (5) both
brilliant beginners and both likely to want to hold the front. Once that burn
is over, the mid/late-race moves will come and they should run slick time.
Likely Leader: BLAZEAWAY
MACRAY (1) or GLIDING ROSE (5)
Best Closers: LOMBO
CLOUD NINE (2), BEAUTY SECRET (4), STEAM WASHED (9) and BROADWAYS BEST (11)
Race 7
*This speed map is a
representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running
at the bell lap.
Speed: Yet
another race here where they’ll sizzle early courtesy of an extraordinarily
brilliant front line of runners. That early burn will be crucial because there
should be little pressure once they find their mid-race roles.
Likely Leader: EASY
ON THE EYE (1) or BRAVE WIGGY (3)
Best Closers: Most
of the rest can get home quickly with the right kind of run.
Race 8
*This speed map is a
representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running
at the bell lap.
Speed: OUR MAXIM (1) is
a very quick beginner who should burrow through and hold the top but MAJOR CROCKER (2) and both McCarthy
runners will play a big role in how quick they go early. If LETTUCEROCKTHEM (5) cannot find the
top, expect him to turn this into a genuine staying test where only the toughest
will survive.
Likely Leader: OUR
MAXIM (1)
Best Closers: LETTUCEROCKTHEM
(5), BLING IT ON (7) and OUR SKY
MAJOR (8)
Race 9
*This speed map is a
representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running
at the bell lap.
Speed: The mere
fact that MISTER GRIZZLY (4) is
engaged should ensure a very quick beginning and with moves expected throughout
and a dual track record holder in SAAB
QUALITY (3) involved they should run along throughout.
Likely Leader: MISTER
GRIZZLY (4)
Best Closers: SAAB
QUALITY (3), WASHMEPOCKETS (6), SMUDGE BROMAC (7) and THAT’S MISTER ALI (8)
Race 10
*This speed map is a
representation of where HRVs form team believes each horse will be in running
at the bell lap.
Speed: A few of
these can get out fast but if MELISANDRE
(1) begins as quickly as she did last start, she’ll dictate terms early on
and they should not break the clock.
Likely Leader: MELISANDRE
(1), BAD BOY CULLEN (3) or VIVA
SAFARI (6)
Best Closers: PADRISIMO
(2) and WEMEN SPORTY (5)
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