Friday, February 28, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Despite the fact that this is a non-metropolitan meeting @ Vic harness HQ there are some significant opportunities to have a punt & win. My love of heat-into-final affairs is very well known and I reckon of we play hard through the first half of tonight’s card, which includes three finals, we should set ourselves up for a decent crack at the Quad.

Best Bets/ Formula 3 ($90 gets 30 units)
The Gingerbreadman (Race 1 no. 10) $2.50
This bloke is ablaze @ the minute and while he does face some stern opposition here, particularly from untapped filly Sandy Kay (11) I think his versatility and turn of foot will prove a bit too much for his rivals here tonight.

Quite A Moment (Race 3 no. 10) $1.50
She is the stone cold stinking moral of the night. Not only is she a Breeders Crown winner, but she was absolutely arrogant winning the stronger of two heats this series so only an error or act of God could see her rolled in this.

Earth Angel (Race 4 no. 6) $2.60
Like so many of David Aiken’s team, this mare has developed from handy but unspectacular performer to potential rising star this preparation. Her biggest threat in this race was Dieing Secret but now that girl’s been scratched I think she’ll be too good.

Best Value ($10 x $30)
Wills Son (Race 2 no. 1) $9
The key to this bet is my premise that he’ll get a soft run in behind likely leader Vote Pedro (2) here and may be able to out-sprint that guy in the lane. There’s little doubt that Burninupthestarzzz (10) and Valley Of Diamonds (12) are the class runners here but both are front-of-the-field horses who may be worth risking from their second line draws.

The Money Races

Race 1
As mentioned above, this looks a two-horse match-race between The Gingerbreadman (10) and Sandy Kay (11) with the former horse favoured to be a shade too strong. If those two both feature on the podium we SHOULD get one of the skinny Tricks outline below.

10/ 11/ 1,5,8,9. $40 gets 1000%
10/ 1,5,8,9/ 11. $10 gets 250%
11/ 10/ 1,5,8,9. $10 gets 250%

Race 3
This isn’t so much a two-horse race as a case of Quite A Moment (10) being a clear top tip and Patch Pepperell (9) being an almost-as-clear second elect. One again, if the two big guns both feature on the podium we should get a result, hopefully with something at decent odds joining them there.

10/ 9/ 1,2,4,5,6,11. $48 gets 800%
10/ 1,2,4,5,6,11/ 9. $12 gets 200%

The Quads (x4 for $150)
6/ 1,4/ 2,3,10,11,13/ 1,2,3,7,10,11. $70 gets 116.67%
6/ 3,5,6/ 2,3,10,11,13/ 1,2,3,7,10,11. $45 gets 50%
7/ 1,4/ 2,3,10,11,13/ 1,2,3,7,10,11. $20 gets 33.33%
7/ 3,5,6/ 2,3,10,11,13/ 1,2,3,7,10,11. $15 gets 16.67%




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