Thursday, January 16, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Yarra Valley

The Game Plan for Yarra Valley – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
As was the case yesterday @ Charlton, the sweltering conditions have served to (not literally but figuratively) decimate today’s Yarra Valley card. There are just three runners in the opening event and 23 scratchings in all but we shall battle on by taking a tricky little Formula 2 combining my three Best Bets on the programme while also targeting 1 Money Race and the Quad.
Best Bets (Formula 2: $90 gets 30 units)
Saab Quality (Race 2 no. 4) $2.20
This bloke has been pretty hard to follow ever breaking the Ballarat track record back in September last year but the fact remains that he has a huge class advantage on this lot and given Yarra Valley is pretty kind to horses who can be a little rough in their gait I suspect he’ll pace throughout and prove a shade too good.
Outer Join (Race 4 no. 8) $3.00
This is the risky one I’m hoping can add some value to our dividend today. Put simply, he can – and does – do things wrong. His particular preference is hanging in under pressure. Despite this however, he does have some ability and if Danielle Lewis can hold the leaders back here, or just stay somewhere on the fight, I can see him going straight past this lot late.
Pressplay (Race 7 no. 1) $1.20
She is the Gold Standard certainty of the day. I would not have said that last campaign as she had a habit of getting rolled in races she should have won, but her last couple of successes have been very good and if she leads as expected here they won’t get near her in the lane.
The Money Race – Race 7 ($60 Flexi Trifectas)
Just a couple of skinny Tricks here so we’ve got something else to play on before Ballarat tonight. As mentioned above, Pressplay (1) looks home here and with little pressure likely through the middle stages I am guessing it will be a peg-dominated affair where whoever lobs leaders back out of All Aussie Star (2) and General Justice (8) will be well placed to snare silver medal honours.
1/ 2,8/ 2,3,8. $40 gets 1000%
1/ 2,8/ 6,10. $20 gets 500%
The Quads (x3)
8/ 1,3,7/ 1,3,8/ 1. $46 gets 511.11%
1,7/ 1,3,7/ 1,3,8/ 1. $36 gets 200%
4,5,10/ 1,3,7/ 1,3,8/ 1. $18 gets 66.67%

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