Friday, January 24, 2014

Good Form Preview - TGIF @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

As has become standard in recent weeks, tonight’s Tabcorp Park programme is more entrée than main with the Ballarat Pacing Cup set down for tomorrow night, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make some folding from the card. To kick things off I’m going to have a little All-Up with two horse I can’t see losing and two others I can’t see missing a hole. We’ll have to wait a while but we can also top up w three consecutive Money Races toward the end of tonight’s monster 11-race programme while having a decent crack at a Quad which should pay anything at all given the tricky nature of almost every leg.

Best Bets/All-Up ($100)

Mister One Two (Race 4 no. 4) $3.50 (Place)
I’ve top tipped this bloke but he’s more of a value proposition than a dead-set moral. I’m happy to declare that in tonight’s race, where he’ll lead or sit parked and his major rivals are both on the long. Arduous comeback trail he almost couldn’t miss a drum here if he tried.

Jaccka Murphy (Race 5 No. 4) $4 (Place)
I’m not sure the Alison Chisholm camp is travelling quite as well as it was a couple of months back but I’ve still got a fair opinion of this bloke and in a race where you can throw a blanket over them for ability, he will find the pegs first, either lead or trail from there and with the Sprint Lane exit he could not utilise last time out, he’ll almost certainly figure on the dais.

Quick Draft (Race 8 no. 5) $1.90 (Win)
This filly actually broke the Melton record for 3YO pacers last start, it’s just that she ran into an outstanding prospect in Punch Line who narrowly beat her home. Tonight she’ll be rolling on to find the top and even with the very smart Bettors Package (8) among her rivals she should be a shade too good.

V C Manoeuvre (Race 9 no. 7) $1.50 (Win)
This bloke drops in grade form starting favourite in the SA derby last start to taking on C1 rivals so he’ll only have to pace throughout to win.

The Money Races
Race 7

This is probably the riskiest of our three Money Races but it also may yield the greatest reward. Simply put, Broadways Best (6) &  Melpark Major (7) have any amount of class on their rivals and I’m tipping one of them will win and both will figure on the podium tonight. Renaissance Man (1) is a clear third pick but he’s been through a lot and isn’t the most reliable commodity these days.

6,7/ 6,7/ 1. $20 gets 1000%
6,7/ 1/ 6,7. $10 gets 500%
6,7/ 6,7/ 3,4,5,8. $20 gets 250%
6,7/ 3,4,5,8/ 6,7. $10 gets 125%

Race 8
As mentioned above, Quick Draft (5) looks to have this at her mercy but I have also got a huge opinion of Bettors Package (8). There’s certainly some little risk that the latter horse will beat the former but if things go to plan he’ll finish just behind our top tip.

5/ 8/ 1,2,7. $45 gets 1500%
5/ 1,2,7/ 8. $15 gets 500%

Race 9
VC Manoeuvre (7) should be a class above his rivals in this while the key place hopes are Guggenheim (8) who is an ultra-consistent type and On Fire Within (4) who went well at this track last start and looks the leading candidate to find the peg-line first.

7/ 8/ 4. $18 gets 1800%
7/ 4/ 8. $12 gets 1200%
7/ 8/ 1,2,3. $18 gets 600%
7/ 1,2,3/ 8. $12 gets 400%

The Quads (x2)
2,4,6,7,8/ 4,5,6,7,9,10,11/ 5,6,9/ 6,7. $70 gets 33.33%
2,4,6,7,8/ 4,5,6,7,9,10,11/ 1,3,8,10/ 6,7. $50 gets 17.86%

The Game Plan for Melton with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).

Best Bet ($100 Win)

(Race 4 No.4 Mister One Two)
This guys run last start was super, he did it tough outside the leader but never gave up trying and was only narrowly defeated at the line. I expect him to work forward to night and look for the lead. If he gets the lead he will be extremely hard to beat but even from the breeze he will be right in the finish.

Money Race

Race 9 Flexi Trifectas ($100)
7/ 4/ Field $60 gets 1000%
4/ 7/ Field $20 gets 333.33%
7/ Field/ 4 $20 gets 333.33%


4/ 4,5,6,7,10,11/ 1,2,5,8,9,10/ 1,4,6,7 $125 gets 86.80%

2,6/ 4,5,6,7/ 1,2,5,8,9,10/ 1,6,7 $25 gets 17.36%

Speed Maps

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.