Thursday, January 2, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ The Rat

The Game Plan for Ballarat – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
We will keep it relatively simple tonight at Ballarat with a couple of best bets likely to start shorter than the price quoted, a little win bet on a roughie plus a money race and just the single Quaddie. For those who are dreading the thought of going back to work in the next few days, or if you have already returned to the grind, hopefully we can make a dollar on tonight's meeting.

Best Bet ($50 win)
Madam Pom Pom (Race 3 No.3) $3
This mare is first-up for Emma Stewart and after an encouraging trial at Ballarat just under two weeks ago, I think she is ready to return to her very best form. If she can do that then there is no question in my mind she is the classiest horse in the race and even if we don’t get the $3 quoted in today’s paper, she will be worth a little punt.

Keayang Storm (Race 8 No.4) $4.50
I love what this well-related son of Grinfromeartoear did on debut. He showed speed, took a sit on the highly rated Adam Cartwright (recent Group 3 runner-up) then tagged him all the way up the straight to be beaten just on a sulkies length. Considering he is a half to Keayang Cullen and had trialled well prior to debut, we can expect him to rush forward again tonight and be extremely hard to hold out at the knock. Again, we may not see the $4.50 in today’s Herald Sun but any price is a good price about a winner.

Best Roughie ($25 win)
Narra Operative (Race 4 No.6) $13
It’s not hard to tell this guy is well down on his best form but this is a massive drop in class and just four starts back he was running third to Savesomtimetodream and Smudge Bromac in a Gunbower Cup. For that reason alone he is worth a small speculative bet if he turns up at big odds.

The Money Races ($50 flexi trifectas)
Race 2
Essentially VC Manoeuvre (5) is clearly the horse to beat and is building a nice record for the Butts but he is by no means over the line with Soho Lennon (3) a nice horse who could roll him if things go his way. We will play some trifectas here with the only other live chances in On Fire Within (1) and Missanger Management (7) to fill the other place position.

5/3/1,7. $18 gets 900%
3/5/1,7. $12 gets 600%
5/1,7/3. $14 gets 700%
3/1,7/5. $6 gets 300%

The Quaddie ($100)
2,3,4,5,6,7/10,11/4,5,7,9/1,2,3,6,10. $100 gets 41.66%

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