Monday, October 22, 2012

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Cobram


THE GAME PLAN for Cobram – with Jason Bonnington

Best Bet
Bettor Warrior (Race 6 no. 4)
This guy is no star but he is versatile and genuine so whether he pushes forward early or restrains to lob a midfield role expect him to break though at around flip of the coin odds.

Best Value
Apollos Gift (Race 1 no. 9)
This fellow is pretty talented and really should have gone close to winning at Tabcorp Park last start when charging home from the rear but galloping in the lane. He is back to the stand here but has won three of five from the strands and is worth a wager around the $3 mark.

Splendid Choice (Race 4 no. 6)
His figure formline looks very ordinary but he is a brutal sort of pacer who I can see really appreciating a little drop in grade where he can bully his rivals into submission today. He faces a couple of handy ones here but may well be a shade too strong.

The Money Race – Race 2
Only two scenarios here; either Lombo Hot Gun (1) holds them all wide early with One More Smile (8) right on his back or Lombo Hot Gun (1) gets crossed at the start & the race becomes much tougher. I advise relying on the former (more likely) scenario & smashing exotics like this.

Quinella
Lombo Hot Gun (1) & One More Smile (8) for plenty.

Trifectas
1,8/ 1,8/ 5,6,7,10 - $40 gets 500%
1,8/ 5,6,7,10/ 1,8 - $20 gets 250%

Quaddies
1,2,6/ 1,3,7,9/ 4/ 4 - $40 gets 333.33%
1,2,6/ 1,3,7,9/ 4/ 1,6,7,8,9 - $30 gets 50%
1,2,6/ 1,3,7,9/ 1,3,5,6,7/ 4 - $30 gets 50%



Black Bookers – (Racing Tonight)
On Fire Within (Race 2 no. 6)
This bloke trialled impressively at Shepparton a couple of weeks back then turned in an eye-catching performance at that same track last time out when a mile off them on turning but still good enough to charge home into fourth. He has drawn poorly over the sprint trip today but is going well and may be worth an each way ticket at good odds. Click here to view the run.

Hezfullarunning (Race 5 no. 9)
He had his hoof on the till for some time prior to breaking through at Bendigo last start when bullying his way to the front and leading his rivals a merry dance. The second line draw won’t concern him here as he doesn’t have much gate speed anyway so look for another big performance form the John Newberry-trained 5YO. Click here to view the run.

Black Bookers – (Cranbourne Sunday Twilight)
Hereux Homme
It certainly wasn’t the strongest race you’ll ever see but this bloke absolutely grew wings late on a day where backmarkers and those making wide runs were not suited at all. He was first up too and should go close in a similarly weak affair wherever he lines up next. Click here to view the run.

Star Trialler – (Racing Tonight)
Rainbow Jay Jay
This guy has any amount of ability and has been trialling nicely both at Bendigo and Shepparton before throwing his chances away by breaking gait whenever he gets to the races. Punters will be tiring of the Jekyll and Hyde act but he may be worth one more chance on an each way basis in the opening event today. Click here to view his most recent trial.

Programme In Review
Yet another tricky night @ the office yesterday @ Cranbourne but HRV form analyst Michael Polster came home strong, boxing Trifectas of $101 and $232.40 with his top four selections in races seven & eight respectively.

Lone Black Booker Mossdale Allan provided Good Form followers with a cracking start to their night, paying $7.30 and never looking like getting beaten in the opening event after being isolated by the Good Form boys as a horse to follow.

Interestingly, every winner at Cranbourne either led or utilised the sprint lane for success. This is a great lesson for young players about the importance of mapping speed and positions in restricted and lower grade races!



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