THE GAME PLAN for Melton - Jason Bonnington
Best Bet
Saucy Vision (Race 4 no. 5)
This bloke is a brilliant beginner who normally leads before
taking the trail but should almost go for an all-the-way victory tonight. He
drops in grade from taking on horses like Saint Flash, Melpark Major &
Bitobliss so looks ideally suited against this easier field.
Best All-Up
Saucy Vision (Race 4 no. 5)
Pembrook Caesar (Race 8 no. 2)
Chancellor Cullen (Race 9 no. 5)
All of these pacers will be short but when you whack them in
a multi the price doesn’t look so bad. If we take each of these pacers to win
in an All-Up & their prices in today’s Herald Sun hold up we’ll get close
around $3.50 for every $1 we invest, which is very attractive in
my opinion.
Best Exotics
Race 8 – First Fours
2/ 4,9/ 4,9/ 3,5,6,7,8,12 = $60 for 500%
2/4,9/ 3,5,6,7,8,12/ 4,9 = $30 for 250%
Race 9 - Trifectas
5/ 8/ 1,2,3,6 =$60 for 1500%
5/ 1,2,3,6/ 8 = $30 for 750%
Quad
5/ 1,2,4,10/ 4,5,6,7,9/ 1,2,5,6,7,8,10,11,13 = $90 for 50%
Jackpot Big6
1,5,7/ 5/ 1,2,4,10/ 4,5,6,7,9/ 1,2,5,6,7,8,10,11,13/ 2 =
$108 for 20%
Michael Polster
THE GAME PLAN for Melton – with Michael Polster
Best Bets
Machin Out (Race 1 no. 6)
Won just the 2 races last season but more often than not he
mixed it with some of this state’s best 3YO’s.
He is first up from a break tonight without a trial but he
doesn’t strike a strong race and with the lead more than likely his he is sure
to be extremely hard to get past.
Saucy Vision (Race 4 no. 5)
Ran a game fourth to Melpark Major in the Geelong Rocket
three back and his two efforts on this track since behind Bitobliss and Miss
Moonlite have been terrific.
He faces a substantial drop in grade tonight and looks like
holding the lead tonight so expect this bloke to be mighty hard to beat.
Pembrook Caesar (Race 8 no. 2)
Makes her Aussie debut for Craig Demmler tonight off the
back of recent trial wins at Melton and Geelong where she finished off in quick
last quarters.
She draws to advantage and first up success is on the cards
for this former Kiwi mare.
Best Trifectas
Race 6
4,5,7/ 4,5,6,7,9/ 4,5,6,7,9. $36 gets you 100%
Race 8
2/ 4,9/ 4,9. $20 gets you 1000% and 2/
4,9/ 3,4,8,9,11. $40 gets you 500%
Race 9
5/ 6,8/ 6,8. $20 gets you 1000% and 5/
6,8/ 1,2,3,4,6,8. $55 gets you 500%
Quaddie
3,4,5/ 2,4/ 4,5,7/ 2,5,7,8,11,13 . $100 gets you
92.59%
Big6
5,7/ 3,4,5/ 2,4/ 4,5,7/ 2,5,7,8,11,13/ 2,9. $100 gets
you 23.14%
BLACK BOOKERS – (Racing Tonight)
Royal Verdict (Race 3 no. 7)
Got back from this very alley at Shepparton first up from a
break and was noted making up plenty of ground out wide for fourth to Wattabout
A Smile. He will be much better for that outing and although the draw
is a little tricky he has his rivals covered ability-wise and should be tough
to hold out. Click here to see the run.
Radical Impact (Race 4 no. 4)
Talented types who was noted making up stacks of ground out
wide at Ballarat last time behind the smart Im Barney Rubble in slick
sectionals. He takes on quality performers Saucy Vision and Cut For An
Ace tonight but can cause somewhat of an upset with the right run in transit. Click here to see the run.
Lady Patti (Race 11 no. 2)
Showed us what she was made of at Kilmore last time out
where she charged home from a peg line trip to just miss behind the talented
Glenferrie Lady. She was most unlucky not to win last time and this looks a
great race for her to bust her maiden. Click here to see the run.
STAR TRIALLERS – (Racing Tonight)
Pembrook Caesar (Race 8 no. 3)
Slipped home in 27.2 to win a Melton trial 11 days ago and
was sharpened up further winning a Geelong workout last Monday night over the
talented Valiant Sue. She looks to have plenty of ability and tonight’s race looks
a good one for her to kick-start her Aussie campaign for Craig Demmler.
BLACK BOOKERS – (Bendigo Last Night)
Art Wizard
Trialled well at Ballarat prior to sitting three-deep the
trip at Bendigo last night and doing a super job to run third behind One Track
Mind. He is no star but will be winning a similar event shortly
with better luck in running. Click here to see the run.
Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk - Lance Justice
Lance Justice rates his five runners at Tabcorp Park tonight
Best Chance
Machin Out (Race 1 no. 3)
He’s ready to roll and he’s strong enough to sit outside
them if he doesn’t lead them so I reckon he’ll start off the night as a pretty
good chance. He’s forward enough that I won’t be babying him, I’ll be driving
him forward like I normally do and letting his fitness carry him the rest of
his way. He could be a special.
Others
Mark Dennis (Race 3 no. 5)
I love this horse and I think he’s going to be a little
superstar. He was off colour lat time in, he was crook and I couldn’t get him
right so I ended up turning him out for a spell but he’s a really nice little
horse. My only worry is Bob Butt hasn’t driven a winner for me but he’s a big
chance to break through. He and Machin Out have been working really strong
together so you’ll get a pretty good guide by how that bloke goes in the first.
Alchemy (Race 4 no. 2)
He’s going really well - he went pretty poor a couple of
runs back but he was probably a certainty beaten last time out. I can actually
see him holding the lead pretty easy after the start. He’s got brilliant gate
speed and I’m not sure Saucy Vision will want to cross us because when they use
him up at the start he doesn’t finish off as well. We’ll see, but the plan will
be to kick forward early on for sure.
Toulouse Lautrec (Race 9 no. 6)
We’re going to have to do it tough I suppose (outside
Chancellor Cullen). Chancellor Cullen’s obviously a very good horse so it’s
unlikely we’ll match it with him but the horse is going OK and he won’t
disgrace himself.
Because I Can (Race 9 no. 8)
He’s been racing very consistently and while the second row
draw isn’t ideal for him he’s a horse with a bit of future. It’s the same story
with him as far as rolling Chancellor Cullen but he’s got talent and he’ll
certainly mix it with the rest.
Speed Maps
For any Change of Tactics information please follow @HRVInformer on Twitter.
Race 1 – PACE GOOD EARLY – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE
DOWN
There are a few slick beginners off the front line here but DABEERS
ZARGON (2) is blistering on his day and should find the front if he so
desires. That would leave EXTRAVAGANT BEACH (1) with the gun run behind
the leader and MACHIN OUT (6) as the horse most likely to punch the
breeze. DESINDA BROMAC (4) should also lob handy and top-end runners
should dominate.
Race 2 – PACE OK EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE
DOWN
Interesting to note that HERE AND NOW (5) hasn’t
finished off his races that well when used up at the start but with the lead
once again his if he wants it here it’s hard to see him not going forward and
finding the front once more. SPARKS ON NUDGEE (1) & JUDYFREE (6) are
the other front line runners with early toe & they should lob behind the
leader and in the breeze tonight. MISS PRETENTIOUS (4) is the X Factor
on debut.
Race 3 – PACE GOOD EARLY – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
Class runner ROYAL VERDICT (7) holds the key here as
he is equally adept from the led or coming with one run but with plenty of
speed drawn inside expect him to go back early with ARTOC (1), DID IT ALONE
(3) & MARK DENNIS (5) disputing the early lead. DID IT ALONE
(4) has been dying to lead & may get his chance here with MARK
DENNIS (5) or GUAPO BROMAC (6) parked & ROYAL VERDICT (7) coming
with one run at them late.
Race 4 – PACE QUICK EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY
SETTLE DOWN
Yet another race with plenty of early speed but SAUCY
VISION (5) is quickest off them all & should find the front first
without too many hassles. His normal method is to lead and then hand up but
tonight’s race is a drop in grade from what he’s been racing in so he should
hold the top here with ALCHEMY (2) either behind the leader or in the
breeze. RADICAL IMPACT (4) & CUT FOR AN ACE (3) will be
hoping to out-sprint their rivals in the lane.
Race 5 – PACE OK EARLY – GENUINE THROUGHOUT
THE FINAL LAP
SONOFANEARL (2) is an exceptional beginner from the
strands more often than not so it’s hard to see them beating him for speed at
the start. He should take and hold the top with LIGHTNING JOY (4) and DJASKER
(3) both handy in the run. Expect ME AN KEL (10) to make an
early/mid-race move to find the breeze with BACKINA LKIFETIME (7) & POSIMISTIC
(11) having one crack at the leaders late.
Race 6 – PACE GOOD EARLY – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE
DOWN
SMOOTH SISTA (3), ZOOMBA (4), CHARLOTTE TWO (5) &
MAGICAL MOLLY (7) all begin well but SMOOTH SISTA (3) holds the
key. She should hold her rivals early but with some significant pressure expect
her to surrender at some point with ZOOMBA (4) a big chance of finding
the front & MAGICAL MOLLY (7) likely to sit outside of her. FIND
TIME TO CRUISE (6) & IT IS SHE (9) should make their runs
together late and from the back.
Race 7 – PACE OK EARLY – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE
DOWN
MIGHTY SUPER POWER (1) settled surprisingly well last
start with N Jack on board but he generally gets pretty fizzed up & should
hold these all at bay if that is the case tonight. WINNIES CENTRAL (5) will
have a look for the lead but should be content in the breeze with IT TAKES
COURAGE (8) securing the gun run behind the leader and LIVIA DE
GEROLSTEIN (2) handy in the run.
Race 8 – PACE OK EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY
SETTLE DOWN
PEMBROOK CAESAR (2) holds the key here. An ex-Kiwi
campaigner, she showed speed at the start in a recent Tabcorp Park trial before
handing up & outsprinting her rivals impressively late. Expect her to find
the front & hold the lead tonight with ELEVENTH COMMAND (4) only a
small hope of beating her out early on. BETTOR BELIEVE IT (9) should get
a nice run through & settle handy while the rest should struggle in what
should be a slowly run affair.
Race 9 – PACE GOOD EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE
DOWN
The battle here will be all about who gets the sit on CHANCELLOR
CULLEN (5) as that Melton Plate winner should eventually work his way to
the front. WELL HELLO DOLLY (1) & AALYAH ROSE (3) are the
chief candidates to find the leaders back with the latter horse marginally
favoured to do so. TOULOUSE LAUTREC (6) looks very likely to face the
breeze through the final lap with stablemate BECAUSE I CAN (8) sitting
well back early and coming with one run at them late.
Race 10 – PACE OK EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE
DOWN
IM DEMIMONDAINE (4) loves the strands and while she’s
incurred a 10m penalty for her last start success expect her to push forward at
the start and vie for the lead in the first 400m. BONSPIEL DELIGHT (3) looks
most likely to deny her the lead or sit in behind her. DROP US ALINE (10) &
MISS KAI CHING (9) will either make mid-race moves or tag each other
into the race late but they will want to be good from their hefty handicaps to
win.
Race 11 – PACE GOOD EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE
DOWN
There are a number of different scenarios here given COOL
MACHRISTA (4), HENS PARTY (5) & BIG BANG PENNY (6) have all got
early toe & LADY PATTI (2) may also be ready to explode at the start
but expect either COOL MACHRISTA (4) or BIG BANG PENNY (6) to
lead with LADY PATTI (2) close enough if good enough & ADDITALLUP
(7) coming with one run late.
Race 12 – PACE QUICK EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE
DOWN
AWESOME ALTO (2) and TOUCH ME POCKET (4) are
both very quick beginners & either can lead early here without surprising.
If AWESOME ALTO (2) leads he may elect to hold the top while TOUCH ME
POCKET (4) would likely hand up to a horse like BREAK TWENTY ONE (5).
Either way BRAESIDE FALCON (7) will have to come with one late run to
win.
Tabcorp Park Barriers - Overall Stats and Winning Strike Rates
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