Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Good Form Preview - Tuesday Night @ Shepparton

The Game Plan for Shepparton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
It might still be early in the week but I think we’ve found ourselves a pretty nice meeting at Shepparton tonight. I’m confident we can nail down atleast three winners at flip of the coin or better so we will couple together our four best chances in a formula three which should turn a good profit if we can get them home. Such is the belief in the best bets we are going to drag out a couple of money races to try and double up on our profits and then we will finish off with a Quaddie split four ways to hopefully ensure a result.

Best Bets/ All Up Formula 3 ($100 gets 25 units)
Our Artistic Leigh (Race 1 No.3) $2.60
You can put a line through this girl’s last start as she went roughly mid-race when second favourite in what was a much stronger race. Prior to that she finished fourth to NSW Oaks contender Spicy Stride and even earlier in her preparation put together two solid wins. She is likely here for a qualifier of the Victoria Oaks so expect her to get the job done on the way to better races.

Passing Thru (Race 3 No.2) $2.10
It was hard to tell just exactly where this guy was at following his first two wins in lower class but perhaps his most impressive performance was his last start third behind Yelspa. He has to sit parked in a much tougher race there and with the likelihood of crossing down to the pegs first and Kensington Palace (7) firing across at the start, he should be in the first two or three in running and looks to have a class edge from there.

Wolfpack (Race 4 No.5) $1.90
Quite simply, although this guy is first-up, he has some talent and looks classes above his rivals here. His winning strike rate of five from 32 is OK and he generally gets the job done when he should. For that reason and the fact that he should find the front in the early stages, he looks a key anchor in our Formula bet today.

Baccarat (Race 5 No.7) $2.50
In a genuine match-race I fancy this fella to just get the upper hand over his major rival Eye Like Candy (5). There is no doubt the latter has plenty of talent and is a winner of five from six however Baccarat (5) has an extra trial under his belt and really turned it on last preparation, going from a promising horse to genuine race-winner. His 10-metre sixth to Keayang Steamer two starts ago says it all. He has made a habit of cleaning up these races when he drops back in grade and hopefully if we are alive, he will finish off the Formula nicely.

The Money Races ($50 flexi trifectas)
Race 3
As mentioned, Passing Thru (2) looks to be a pretty handy horse on the rise and if the scenario ensues where Kensington Palace (7) rushes to the lead over him early, then it's almost impossible to see our top tip being beaten, however we will play one saver trifecta just in case the likely leader turns up in his best form.

2/7/3,4,9. $26 gets 866.67%
2/3,4,9/7. $18 gets 300%
7/2/3,4,9. $6 gets 200%

Race 5
This race is really going to be the turning point of our day from a punting perspective. Both Eye Like Candy (5) and Baccarat (7) looks to be panels above their rivals and for all intents and purposes they should quinella the race. With limited hopes for third we are going to play the trifecta’s outlined to try and make some extra coin from the race.

5,7/5,7/1,9,10,12. $26 gets 325%
5,7/1,9,10,12/5,7. $16 gets 200%
5,7/5,7/2,3,6,11. $8 gets 100%

The Quads (x4)
5,7/8,9/2,10/3,5,10,11. $40 gets 125%
5,7/7,11,12/2,10/3,5,10,11. $24 gets 50%
5,7/8,9/1,5,6,7,11/3,5,10,11. $32 gets 40%
5,7/7,11,12/1,5,6,7,11/3,5,10,11. $24 gets 20%

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