Monday, April 28, 2014

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Cranbourne

The Game Plan for Cranbourne – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I had a terrific Thursday night raising money for Breast Cancer research with @PoggaSalter on the Ballarat trots but unfortunately after that it was a dirty weekend indeed. Tipping winners wasn’t really the issue at Melton or Bendigo but making money off them was. Rather than recoil however, I’ve spent my Sunday analysing tapes and ripping deep into today’s 10-race Cranbourne card so we can fight back like the caged punting lions that we are! I’m keen on quite a few today but I’ve limited the spread of Best Bets to just two, while identifying 4 Value runners, 1 Money race and 4 potentially fruitful little Qauds.

Best Bets ($50 Win)
Holdonsu (Race 8 no. 11) $5.50
It would be one of the greatest shocks of my punting life if this bloke comes up anything close to the $5.50 marked in today’s Herald Sun but forgetting the price for a minute he should be far too good. There’s usually some question mark over any favourite and for this guy there are two; the fact that he’s first-up for two months and the second line draw. He has gone a long way to offsetting the first by trialling very well behind Fearless Leader at this course recently however and really should outclass this lot today.

Fon Design (Race 9 no. 10) $2.50
This filly has taken a little while to fully hit her straps this campaign but her last couple have been very, very good. She also has the second line draw to contend with so we will want black figures but if we get them a straight out crack is in order for sure.

Best Value ($10 Win $15 Place)
Mor Laag (Race 2 no. 1) $9
This guy is no star but he loves nothing more than trailing the leader in his races and should do just that from his ideal polemarking draw. He would have finished a lot closer from that very position if not for being held up late at Warragul last time out and should at least place with the gun run expected here today.

Fergus Maccool (Race 6 no. 1) $11
He is another bloke who thrives on the kind of cushy peg-line trip he’s almost certain to receive today. He worked home very stylishly from three back the poles last time out and given the extreme likelihood that he’ll trail natural front-runner Classy Guy (2) expect him to get a great cart into the action and finish on the podium somewhere if he does.

Cullen Regent (Race 6 no. 10) $13
This guy can be a little frustrating for punters as he cannot make his own luck and is a completely one-dimensional sit-sprinter but when things pan out in his favour he does possess a blistering 250m burst of speed. If they walk in transit he’s in trouble but if there is some pressure he’ll be charging in the lane.

Big Bang Leonard (Race 10 no. 10) $5
This guy is yet another sit-sprinting type who needs some luck in his races but if you put a line through his disappointing effort at Geelong last start he’s clearly the best horse engaged today. He will want them to go quick early on but if there are some fireworks he’ll be dropping on them late.

The Money Race - Race 4 (Flexi Trifectas for $80)
On the score of pure class McNiven (7) should have this race on toast, outside-front-line-draw and all, but he does have some tricks that he pulls out on occasion. I still think he’ll hunt this lot down late but even if he doesn’t he should run second with the key threats coming from Sketch Me (1) and Loong Nien (4).

7/ 1,4/ 1,4. $20 gets 1000%
1,4/ 7/ 1,4. $10 gets 500%
7/ 1,4/ 3,5,8,9. $40 gets 500%
1,4/ 7/ 3,5,8,9. $10 gets 125%

The Quads (x4 gets $120)
1,6,8,10/ 1,2,7,10/ 3,10/ 11. $32 gets 100%
1,6,8,10/ 1,2,7,10/ 1,2,4,7,8,9,11/ 11. $56 gets 50%
1,6,8,10/ 1,2,7,10/ 3,10/ 3,4. $16 gets 33.33%
1,6,8,10/ 1,2,7,10/ 1,2,4,7,8,9,11/ 3,4. $16 gets 7.14%

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