Good Form Preview - Monday @ Yarra Valley

The Game Plan for Yarra Valley – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
We couldn’t retire on what we profited over the last seven days but it was another winning week and I usually love punting at the picturesque Yarra Valley circuit so I’m confident of kicking the week off on a winning note. Having said that, this is a much more aggressive Game Plan than normal so it could be feast or famine with 1 good value Best Bet, 1 very good value Best Value, 2 Money races & some Quads.

Best Bet ($25 Each Way)

Jean Baptiste (Race 7 no. 8) $4.80
This bloke made a big impression in his debut Aussie prep for Lance Justice, finishing on the dais in all 7 starts and winning 3. He’s trialled pretty well in strong fields without setting the world on fire in preparation for his return but the two crucial keys for him in my opinion are that he’s the most progressive horse engaged and there should be more than enough earl/mid0race pressure to give him a chance to drop on his rivals in the lane.

Best Value ($15 Win $35 Place)

Blitzsuzy (Race 2 no. 6) $11
This filly is no superstar but what she lacks in outright brilliance she makes up for in heart and after facing some very handy horses at her past four or five runs I think she’ll relish the big drop in grade that this race represents. I also think she’ll be hugely advantaged by a solid speed throughout and a crucial switch to the Ross Sugars barn.

The Money Race (Flexi Trifectas for $50 Each)

Race 3
This is aggressive. Simply put, I think Invasive (8) and Nico Serrano (9) will be way too good for their rivals and if they both stay in gait they should run the Quinella. I’ve also isolated likely leader Conchs Critter (4) and the very consistent Drop Of Paradise (3) as the only other threats although this really is a feast or famine kind of bet.

8,9/ 8,9/ 3,4. $30 gets 750%

8,9/ 3,4/ 8,9. $12 gets 300%
8,9/ 3,4/ 3,4. $8 gets 200%

Race 5

The polemarking draw is a tiny concern for Sapphire Swayze (1) here but on the score of talent alone he has panels on his rivals here today. He also has the great Gavin Lang on board so should win comfortably. If he does do that and the in-form Asoka (4) shares a place on the podium with him then we should get something from the Tricks outlined below.

1/ 4/ 2,8. $20 gets 1000%

1/ 2,8/ 4. $10 gets 500%
1/ 4/ 5,6,7. $15 gets 500%
4/ 1/ 2,8. $5 gets 250%

The Quads (x3 for $100)
1/ 2,3,4/ 3,6,8/ 6,7,10,11. $72 gets 200%
1/ 1,6,8/ 3,6,8/ 6,7,10,11. $14 gets 38.89%
4/ 2,3,4,/ 3,6,8/ 6,7,10,11. $14 gets 38.89%