Friday, April 11, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

Adam Hamilton's Preview

The Game Plan for Tabcorp Park Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It always feels warm and comfortable to be back punting @ Victorian harness HQ and with the inclement weather prevailing throughout the state tonight feels even better than normal. If you’re brave enough to tackle the wind at Tabcorp Park there’s actually some super racing on offer but I’ll be kicking back with a Makers’ Mark & Coke and attacking one Best Value Bet at an inflated Fixed Odds Quote, 3 Money Races and a Quartet of Early Quads. We’re also up $465 for the week to date so we can lose all $400 tonight and still be ahead since Monday!

Best Value ($15 x $35)
Gumdrops (Race 7 no. 9) $12 TAB Fixed Odds
I’m more than willing to acknowledge that one-time Miracle Mile winner Baby Bling (11) is the horse to beat here and Blazeaway Macray (5) is also likely to get her chance from the head of affairs but unlike most Mares races at Melton I can see them going very quickly here and given her brilliant turn of foot and double figure Fixed Odds quote, I’m happy to have something on the above pacer tonight.

The Money Races
Race 2 (Flexi Trifectas for $90)
The scratching of The Boss Man has really tightened this race up. Now it does look a two horse war between Glenferrie Typhoon (4) and Josephine Jones (11) with a small gap back to Rumbustious (6) and Morning Fawlty (7). If all four horse stay in gait they’ll comprise the Trifecta here for sure but I have made provisions if bad manners play a role.

4,11/ 4,6,7,11/ 4,6,7,11. $60 gets 500%
4,11/ 4,6,7,11/ 2,3,5,12,13. $30 gets 100%

Race 4 (Flexi First Four for $60)
This is a vintage crop of 3YO fillies and there aren’t many better than Mindarie Priddy (3) and Quick Draft (4). They should lead and sit parked here and one of them should salute with the other real big gun being Whereibylong (5). It’s only a small field so we may have to play a First 4 rather than a Trifecta to make some serious folding with Bettors Package (2) and Punch Line (6) both capable of finishing third and fourth.

3,4/ 3,4,5/ 2,3,4,5,6/ 2,3,4,5,6. $60 gets 250%

Race 8 (Flexi Trifectas for $60)
Cold Major (1) steps up yet again tonight but he’s been an enormous improver this season and should dictate proceedings from the head of affairs. I personally think he’ll lead all the way but if he does get nabbed I think he’ll finish no worse than fourth and with limited rivals capable of figuring on the podium this is another good race for a couple of exotic wagers.

1/ 3,7,8,9/ 3,7,8,9. $42 gets 350%
3,7,8,9/ 1/ 3,7,8,9. $18 gets 150%

The Early Quads (x3 for $140)
2,3,6,10,11/ 4,11/ 2/ 3,4. $100 gets 500%
2,3,6,10,11/ 6,7/ 2/ 3,4. $30 gets 150%
2,3,6,10,11/ 4,11/ 2/ 5. $10 gets 100%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Emma Stewart
Best Chance
Whereibylong (Race 4 no. 5) $3.50
She is just a very classy filly; she had a few little issues up in Sydney but she’s actually spot on now. I’ve got no doubt she’s the best of my three chances in the race and I actually think she’s better than the other two (Mindarie Priddy and Quick Draft) as well.

Johnny Quid (Race 1 no. 10) $16
He’s up in that sort of grade now where he really needs the right run to win. It’s a very even race though and it wouldn’t shock us to see him go pretty close.

Ideal For Real (Race 3 no. 3) $10
We really like him. To be completely honest he’s probably not ready for the Gold (APG Series) because he’s still very green but he’s got a nice turn of foot and down the track he’ll make a more than handy horse.

Bettors Package (Race 4 no. 2) $12
She’s just that little bit below the very good ones but she’ll get a nice run from the drawn and if they really run along she won’t be too far away.

Punch Line (Race 4 no. 6) $16
She’ got terrific upside. She’s very lightly raced but we’ve got a pretty big opinion of her. She definitely ranks second behind Whereibylong but above Bettors Package of our three in the race.

Hes Kinky (Race 5 no. 9) $6
The way he won last start is the way he’s got to be driven from now on. We just need to drop him out at the start of his races and let him finish off because he’s got an excellent turn of speed if he’s held up for one run.

Tara Toplady (Race 5 no. 12) $12
I really feel for her because she just can’t  seem to win one of these races without the perfect draw but having said that she’ll probably get to $100,000 just by running placings so hopefully she can finish close up again tonight.

Shake It Mama (Race 7 no. 6) $4.40 TAB Fixed Odds
She’s going pretty well. I think she’ll need a couple of runs to really hit her peak this preparation but we really think we’ve got the right at the moment and if you follow her a little further into her campaign this time around I think you’ll see the real Shake It Mama stand up.

Atticus (Race 9 no. 5) $2.50
He’s had a couple of runs to prepare him for this but he’s still learning and he’s still pretty green. Having said that I think this is the right race for him and outside of Mach Doro we think he’s up to anything else competing in the (APG) series.


To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Quarter– Beachstar: 26.67secs
Fastest Last Half –  Keayang Cullen: 55.06secs
Fastest Last Mile –  Major Steppe: 1:55.4

Speed Maps

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