Friday, April 25, 2014

Good Form Preview - Anzac Night @ Melton

The Game Plan for Melton - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value ($30 Win)

Blazeaway Macray (Race 7 no. 1) $4.50
I've always had a soft spot for this mare but she finally repaid the faith with her excellent Jodie's Babe win at HQ last time out. This race is tougher than that one as she's tackling the boys over a longer trip but the lead will once again be hers if she wants it and if she thieves a quarter they'll have a real hard time running her down at what should be OK odds.

Best Roughies - TAB Fixed Odds ($10 Win $30 Place)

Duke Of The Moment (Race 3 no. 3) $21/$3.66 TAB Fixed Odds
The record will show that the last time this bloke took on Brunelleschi (7) and co he was beaten 32m but the fact of the matter is that he was travelling like the winner before he broke up late on that occasion. Since then he's all but won the McNamara Memorial Trotters Cup off 20m & finished close up behind Aleppo Midas (12). Add to those facts that he's a huge chance of finding the lead here and loves the long distance trip and the $21 looks very juicy indeed.

Tsonga (Race 3 no. 9) $21/ $3.66 TAB Fixed Odds
This bloke has enjoyed an unbelievably fruitful Country Cup season and simply loves long distance trips from the standing start. In recent starts he's gone within a whisker of beating El Paco in the Wangaratta Cup after spotting him a 30m start, won the Echuca Cup off 30m and run home boldly at Geelong and Mildura from impossible 40m imposts. He is a brilliant beginner from the strands, won't know himself off the front mark here and can easily win at a crazily inflated Fixed Odds quote.

Whata Avenue (Race 6 no. 6) $16/$3 TAB Fixed Odds
Goodtime Marjie (7) is certainly the one to beat here but she isn't the soundest mare going around and if she's just off her game then the above mare can rifle forward early, perhaps even find the front and prove awfully difficult to beat if she does. Even if the favourite comfortably wins I still think this girl is a massive place hope at the excellent quote of $3 the drum.

The Money Races

Race 2 (Flexi Trifecta for $40)

Follow The Stars (10) looks like being dominant here while Monivae (5) and Artistic Flite (8) are the chief and perhaps only silver medal hopes. We won't make our fortune out of this race but it could kick off a tidy string of exotics for the night.

10/ 5,8/ 1,5,6,8,11. $40 gets 500%

Race 4 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)

Chilli Palmer (5) is a dead-set freak and if he's anywhere near his best he could sit anywhere in this small field and still prove too nippy in the stretch. Likely leader Our Blackbird (3) and enduring champ Smoken Up (8) are the obvious silver medal hopes but I've also made provision for Come On Frank (4) or Five Star Anvil (7) to fill that role.

5/ 3,8/ 1,3,4,7,8. $40 gets 500%
5/ 4,7/ 1,3,4,7,8. $10 gets 125%

Race 5 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)

If my Speed Map is right then Whereibylong (1) will hold up early before handing up to Mindarie Priddy (6) and they will dominate from there with equally talented filly Quick Draft (7) the only hope of causing a minor upset. Those three fillies would appear to have a mortgage on this race but untapped ex-Kiwi Our Cavort (5) and the lovable Bettors Package (11) can both sneak into third.

1,6/ 1,6,7/ 1,6,7. $32 gets 800%
1,6/ 1,6,7/ 5,11. $12 gets 200%
7/ 1,6/ 1,6. $4 gets 200%
7/ 1,6/ 5,11. $2 gets 50%

Race 6 (Flexi Trifectas for $60)

Goodtime Marjie (7) is the obvious measuring stick here. If she's good to go and gets an OK run she'll win or run second at very worst with three key rivals comprising Whata Avenue (6), Eye Like Candy (9) and Tombstone Eden (10) likely to join her on the dais.

7/ 6,9,10/ 6,9,10. $30 gets 500%
7/ 6,9,10/ 1,3,4,5,8. $15 gets 100%
6,9,10/ 7/ 6,9,10. $10 gets 166.67%
6,9,10/ 7/ 1,3,4,5,8. $5 gets 33.33%

The EARLY Quads (x2 for $100)

6/ 10/ 2,3,9,12/ 5. $80 gets 2000%
1,3/ 10/ 2,3,9,12/ 5. $20 gets 250%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Emma Stewart
Best Chance
Whereibylong (Race 5 no.1) $2.50
“I think she will turn the tables on Mindarie Priddy. The 2240 metres suits our filly and a better barrier is ideal. She can either lead or take a sit so she will be our best hope through the entire Oaks series.”

Atticus (Race 2 no.11) $16
“He’s a nice enough sort of horse and the race experience will help him but it’s a nice field so he’ll find it a little hard.”

Celebrity Lass (Race 5 no.9) $26
“This is a tough ask for her but she’s earnt the chance to race against the better ones now.”

Bettors Package (Race 5 no.11) $16
“She’s a great little filly who tries really hard. She will need the right run but if she gets it she will let them know she is there.”

Goodtime Marjie (Race 6 no.7) $2.20
“She’s a lovely mare, she’s got a lot of soundness issues so we try to race her sparingly but she’s pretty good. She’s one of our better four-year-old mares and I think she is up to the likes of Beauty Secret who was good last season at that age.”

Hexham Heartbeat (Race 6 no.11)
“If she gets a run she’d be a great hope.”

Jadahson (Race 7 no.6) $6.50
“He’s been racing a bit fierce in his last couple and beating himself so we’ve got to try and slow him up a bit but his form has been good.”

Metro Mike (Race 7 no.9) $5.50
“He’s a nice big strong horse and we expect him to improve and go through the grades so he should run a top race.”

Punch Line (Race 8 no.1) $7.50
“Her run was better than what it looked when you look at the sectionals. She’s probably our best hope in that race.”

Berisari (Race 8 no.5) $12
“She’s surprised us this time in because she never really showed a lot last time in so she’s definitely the smoky.”

Our Petite Soeur (Race 8 no.7) $34
“She can mix her form a bit and she does have some soundness issues but if the right one turns up they’ll know she’s there.”

Ideal For Real (Race 7 no.9) $14
“He’s our best two-year-old colt so far but he’s very green and he doesn’t know what he’s doing yet but he should go pretty well.”

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