Saturday, March 15, 2014

Good Form Preview - Grand Prix Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Tabcorp Park – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
To be completely honest this meeting is going to head one of two ways; either our big gun Best Bets are going to roll home as expected & set up a windfall result or they’re going to get beaten and leave us in the lurch. One terrific addition to tonight’s Game Plan will be the Early Quad. I’m putting all my faith in mighty old warrior, Smoken Up, to bring that EQ home and I’m so keen on it that I’m not even playing the normal Quad – which comes with a $15K TAB Jackpot – because it looks too hard.  Outside of our Best Bets and Early Quad there are also a couple of Money Races and a Best Roughie so there’ll be plenty to entertain us as the footy season begins!
Best Bets/ Formula 3 ($80 gets 20 units)
Steam Washed (Race 2 no. 6) $2.50 Click here to bet on this horse now
The draw isn’t kind for this girl tonight but her last win in the Ladyship Cup racing better mares than these was simply awesome and if she brings her best form tonight she will be too good.
Smoken Up (Race 4 no. 7) $1.60 Click here to bet on this horse now
Everything has fallen into place for the champion pacer here. Not only does he have a stablemate engaged that looks a great chance of leading early and then handing up to him but once he finds the front there’ll be no pressure at all. His biggest risk of losing is if he goes too slow.
Flying Isa (Race 8 no. 2) $3.20 TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now
I might be reading this race wrong but in my world this record-breaking trotter should scurry across to find the front before stacking his rivals up and letting loose a fair way out. We know that Melton is suited to leaders in big, high quality races and if this bloke leads here, he should really win.
Padrisimo (Race 9 no. 10) $2 Click here to bet on this horse now
There are a few newcomers to the freshman ranks to topple tonight but this little fella has taken all before him and I think it’s fair to say that one of his rivals will want to be reasonably special to knock him over tonight.
Best Roughie ($5 x $15)
I See Icy Earl (Race 8 no. 10) $26  Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy faces his toughest test here but he is racing in career best form and on the off chance that there’s fireworks at some stage in this, no horse is more likely to make up three or four lengths late to hunt their rivals down than him.
The Money Races
Race 6 Click here to bet on this race now
It Is Billy (8) would be $1.40 from any other draw than inside the second line here and I still think that off he gets off the pegs he’ll too big and strong. I’m equally confident that Im Smouldering (1) is his major danger and a virtual certainty to share the dais with It Is Billy (8) while there’s only a handful of others with any hope of also running a drum.
8/ 1/ 3,5,6,9,11. $40 gets 800%
8/ 3,5,6,9,11/ 1. $20 gets 400%
1/ 8/ 3,5,6,9,11. $15 gets 300%
Race 9 Click here to bet on this race now
As  mentioned above I think Padrisimo (10) should be too good here and on exposed form only three of his rivals can really test him here.
10/ 1,6,7/ 1,6,7,8. $36 gets 400%
1,6,7/ 10/ 1,6,7,8. $14 gets 155.56%
The EARLY Quads – Races 1 to 4 - (x4 for $125) Click here to bet on the Early Quaddie now
1,8/ 6/ 2,6,7,8,9/ 7. $20 gets 100%
1,8/ 2,3,5,7,8/ 2,6,7,8,9/ 7. $50 gets 100%
5,7,9,10,11/ 6/ 2,6,7,8,9/ 7. $25 gets 100%
5,7,9,10,11/ 2,3,5,7,8/ 2,6,7,8,9/ 7. $25 gets 20%
* Caveat: Depending upon your personal preferences it may be worth laying-off in the last leg if tonight’s Early Quad if the approximate dividends are big enough. Probably not, but just keep it in mind.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Lance Justice
Best Chance
Smoken Up (Race 4 no.7) $1.60 Click here to bet on this horse now
"It worked out that because of the GSS next week he had to run twice in a row.

"For that reason I didn't trial him prior to last week so he was a little underdone. He should be better for that run. He can still run really good time and he still feels fantastic.

"If they go too hard early i'll just drop him in, wait for a while and then go around them, I mean he doesn't even have to lead, he could sit parked and he has shown how good he is doing that."

Next Best
Machin Out (Race 7 no.10) $16 Click here to bet on this horse now
"He's such a genuine little horse and he'll be out the back but he has a wicked little sprint. He's going to have to show it but I think he can run a place.

"We gave him a little break after his last start but I think he's lifted to a new level in the next few weeks."

Alchemy (Race 4 no.4) $21 Click here to bet on this horse now
"He's a very fast beginner and he will get out of the gate quickly.

"He ofcourse has Smoken Up who also gets out brilliantly so hopefully he can be first to the pegs and they will be one-two in running and finish that way."

Im Barney Rubble (Race 7 no.1) $6.50  Click here to bet on this horse now
"I thought he went okay last time, he was taken on a few times by the stablemate which was ridiculous. Because of that he tried to sit up and it's just not his style, I've no doubt he'll lead and go pretty hard and run really really well."

Toulouse Lautrec (Race 10 no.5) $8.50  Click here to bet on this horse now
"He's been going really well and racing really well but it's really hard in this claiming grade. There are some very good horses having to race in this grade but he is still going well all the same and he should be some chance.

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Kotare Roland: 1:53.01

Fastest Last Half – Savesomtimetodream: 55.11secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Our Blackbird: 26.54secs

Sectional Superstar
Kotare Roland (Race 10 no.4) – $6 Click here to bet on this horse now
Geoff Webster has this guy in a rare vein of form and his last mile at TABCORP Park last week suggests that despite finishing sixth, he is still very much on track.

In a small field he won't have to navigate as many runners and with a genuine tempo expected throughout the race, he can be steaming home at the end.

Speed Maps

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