Friday, March 7, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I’ve enjoyed the spate of Saturday night meetings at Melton in recent weeks but there’s something very special about being able to wager @ Vic harness HQ on Friday, at the end of another long working week! Tonight’s card is particularly attractive too, with a few short priced favourites we can roll into an All-Up, along with 1 Value pick, 1 genuine Roughie, 2 Money Races and 4 widish Quads.

Best Bets/All-Up ($50)
Flaming Hero (Race 4 no. 11) $1.40
This race promised to be a pearler at one stage with the above pacer and Dieing Secret set to fight out a thrilling finish but with that latter horse’s mid-week scratching I cannot foresee any situation where the favourite doesn’t win and win easily here tonight.

It Is Billy (Race 7 no. 7) $1.80
He’s always come with very big wraps, but this bloke really took things to the next level with his arrogant, other-worldly triumph at this course in 1:53.3 seven days ago. If he goes close to replicating that effort here they won’t see which way he went.

Keayang Cullen (Race 9 no. 5) $1.60
The start will be crucial here, but if this bloke can spear across his rivals as expected before taking a sit on Smoken Up (2) in transit, I just don’t see how he won’t out-sprint him in the lane.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Citysneak (Race 2 no. 4) $6
I love this bet. Put simply, this is an extremely open race and given this mare: a) Performed at least as well as any other runner engaged here in last Sunday’s heats when sitting parked and only just getting bloused by My Sunday Girl (5) & b) Looks drawn to lead over the 1720m trip which is a huge advantage at Melton, I think she’s a super bet at what should be pretty handy odds.

Best Roughie ($5 x $15)
Neville Vaughan (Race 8 no. 2) $18 TAB Fixed Odds
This is a pretty speculative bet but that’s why we’re only having a little crack. My philosophy here is that the above trotter has the requisite early speed to cross over and finds the pegs first and in a very even and every tricky race he’ll have plenty of options and a big winning chance if he does. It must be remembered that he should almost have won this race last year from the trail and he does race best over the short course trip.

The Money Races
Race 7
As mentioned above, I’ve got It Is Billy (7) cruising forward from his wide front line draw & proving a class above his rivals but if there’s one horse who can test him – or at very least join him on the dais – it’s his last starts conqueror Cyrus (11). Outside of them it’s a pretty even race so play a little wider for the other placing here.

7/ 11/ 1,3,5,6,8,10. $42 gets 700%
7/ 1,3,5,6,8,10/ 11. $21 gets 350%
11/ 7/ 1,3,5,6,8,10. $12 gets 200%

Race 9
The speed map scenario is pretty simple here. Keayang Cullen (5) is an 80% chance of flying to the front here before taking a trail on the back of Smoken Up (2). If that scenario prevails then they should finish one-two with the former horse too good. Our Blackbird (6) is a clear third pick for mine.

5/ 2/ 6/ Field. $50 gets 2500%
5/ 2/ 1,4/ 6. $25 gets 1250%

The Quads (x4 gets $130) 
5,7/ 1,4,7,10/ 7/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,8. $56 gets 100%
1,2,3,4,6,8,9/ 1,4,7,10/ 7/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,8. $49 gets 25%
5,7/ 1,4,7,10/ 11/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,8. $14 gets 25%
1,2,3,4,6,8,9/ 1,4,7,10/ 11/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,8. $11 gets 5.61%

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Gumdrops: 1:53.10

Fastest Last Half – Lovable Larrikin: 55.61secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Valley Of Diamonds: 27.08secs

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Craig Demmler
Best Chance
Glenferrie Dreamer (Race 5 no.7) $3.50
“I can put the first-up result down to my fault because I got him shoed the morning of the race and I didn’t think it would affect him but it probably did in the end.

“He trialled on Monday night and went exceptionally well. The draw and opposition is an ask but out of the three I’m very confident he will run a good race.
Glenferrie Shuffle (Race 2 no.8) $3.50
“She was probably disappointing but they ran good time. She’s had a few troubles and we’re starting to get on top of them I think. I‘m hoping that she was a run short and she has never been the best in front.

Glenferrie Blade (Race 3 no.5) $21
“I’ve only had her for about three weeks but Geoff Walker did a fantastic job breaking her in. She lacks a bit of high speed but she makes up for it in toughness.

“After tonight I might tip her out and freshen her up for a bit and bring her back for the sires.”

Speed Maps

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