Thursday, December 19, 2013

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Cranny

The Game Plan for Cranbourne – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
After a decent Quaddie result yesterday plus the Guru landing his best bet on the Maryborough program, Good Form punters should be ready to fire today and after Andrew Evans punched home a couple of winners in the heat at Mildura, our attention can turn to the state’s south-east for the first meeting back at the Cranbourne racing complex since Cranbourne Cup night just over a week ago. Small fields can sometimes be a blessing and I think tonight it should help punters single out with a couple of strong money races along with the Best Bet, Best Value and staggered Quaddie which we will split four ways.

Best Bet ($50 win)
Shakti Bromac (Race 6 Number 6) $2.20
Most of tonight’s Game Plan will centre around this talented son of Falcon Seelster getting the cash in the small field here. He has the ability to race through his classes as a new-season four-year-old and two starts before a break he was a close-up fifth behind Chilli Palmer in a consolation of the Breeders Crown. His first-up run from a spell was OK without being outstanding but with Amazing Kano franking that form since, we can lift that race in our estimations. He only had one trial going into that race so he should strip fitter tonight and all things being equal he should outclass his rivals.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
Popeye Village (Race 5 Number 8)  $5
We won’t be breaking the bank on this guy but first-up with little form to speak of we can only hope he will come up a decent price on the tote. He is as short as $5 in today’s Herald Sun but if we can get something closer to $8 that would be ideal because he is no moral. What we do know is that he has won a trial in handy enough time at Cranbourne since transferring to the Rebecca Cartwright stable and he should enjoy a soft run along the pegs whether that be behind the favourite Krisney Girl (1) or three-back the markers if she gets crossed.

The Money Races
Race 3 ($50 flexi trifecta)
There are a couple of small fields tonight we can single out as top betting propositions and this kicks off in the third event. We will bank our main trifecta here around Mediation (1) following an outstanding run on Yarra Valley Cup day behind Antigua. His form prior was good and he should have the speed to kick through and be behind the leader at worst, giving him a massive shot of taking advantage of the sprint lane at genuine each-way odds in today’s paper. There are three main dangers with Medonc (4) clearly the most talented of the lot and likeliest to roll our top tip. If we play around those two plus Stynz Boy (3) and Art Prevails (6) then we should end up with a result early.

1/3,4,6/3,4,6. $30 gets 500%
1/3,4,6/2,5,7. $10 gets 111.11%
4/1,3,6/1,3,6. $10 gets 166.67%

Race 6 ($50 flexi trifecta)
As mentioned a little earlier this race looks at the mercy of Shakti Bromac (6) so there is no better place to double up than the multiples and with limited hopes to run second, plus a saver trifecta in case a roughie lobs third, we should end up with a decent result if we can land the money. Flyin Indi Air (7) grew wings when winning at Cranbourne four starts back and a repeat performance would rate her the most serious threat however Pumpitup (3) has trialled well and should also be considered a chance of taking the minor prize.

6/3,7/1,3,7. $40 gets 1000%
6/3,7/2,4,5. $10 gets 166.67%

Quaddies (x4)
4/1,6,8,9/6/4. $42 gets 1050%
4/1,6,8,9/6/1,2,7. $24 gets 200%
3,5/1,6,8,9/6/4. $16 gets 200%
3,5/1,6,8,9/6/1,2,7. $18 gets 75%

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