Saturday, December 7, 2013

Good Form Preview - Saturday Night @ The Cranny Cup

The Game Plan for Cranbourne Cup Night – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Not only is tonight’s Cranbourne Cup programme incredibly mouth-watering from a purists perspective it also represents a great opportunity for us to open the punting shoulders with three heat-into-final affairs (which I absolutely love) and some seriously classy horses right throughout the card. Tellingly, I feel I’ve found 3 winners across the 10 race card I’d be shocked to see get rolled plus 3 Money Races, 3 Roughies, who will all go around in the night’s two features and another 3 Quads.

Best Bets/ Formula 4 ($100 gets 20 Units)
As mentioned above, I’m very keen on no less than five runners tonight, but rather than have a bullish All-Up I’m going to take a Formula 4 where one of the below can get rolled and we should still make some coin.

Goodtime Marjie (Race 3 no. 8) $1.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
The draw is awkward but her class is undeniable. Good enough to split Frith and Glenferrie Shuffle in a heat of the Vic Oaks last term, she looks thrown in to this C1 to C4 affair and with Chris Alford in the cart I’d be shocked if she got rolled.

No Bettertime (Race 4 no. 1) $1.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
I’ve liked this bloke for some time and his two efforts so far this prep have only confirmed my high opinion. Unforeseen things can always happen in races but all things being equal he should lead and he should win.

Magical Telf (Race 8 no. 3) $1.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Even if nothing specific was in his favour I’d think this bloke was close to unbeatable tonight but the fact he has stablemate and noted enforcer Saab Quality (7) to ensure Living Lord (2) doesn’t get everything his own way in front only fortifies my conviction that he has this race on toast.

Cowboy Cadillac (Race 9 no. 4) $1.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy is an absolute certainty to finish 1st or 2nd but I really believe he’ll win as the way I see things panning out he will be in front and dictating terms with little pressure outside him and every chance to boot clear in the lane. If there’s a stack of pressure he could be vulnerable but I’m happy to have him in this list of near good things.

Blitzthemcalder (Race 10 no. 3) $1.20 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Not much needs to be said here. If he trots he wins. End of story.

The Money Races (Flexi Trifectas for $80)
Race 4 – Click here to bet on this race now
Really and truly I can’t see No Bettertime (1) getting rolled here so the top two best are the key ones, but the two horse who should figure on the podium with him, or potentially threaten him with the right run, are Forest Fury (9) and Don’t Wanadie (12). Stynz Boy (8) is the other key runner based purely on the run the run that he will get.

1/ 9,12/ 8,9,12. $40 gets 1000%
1/ 9,12/ 2,6,11. $18 gets 300%
9,12/ 1/ 8,9,12. $16 gets 400%
9,12/ 1/ 2,6,11. $6 gets 100%

Race 8 – Click here to bet on this race now
I’m convinced that Magical Telf (3) will overwhelm his rivals late here with likely leader Living Lord (2) joining him on the podium and every other runner bar Fiery Achiever (4) capable of joining those two in the Trick

3/ 2/ 1,5,6,7. $60 gets 1500%
3/ 1,5,6,7/ 2. $20 gets 500%

Race 9 – Click here to bet on this race now
This is the most convoluted of our Money Races but it should bear fruit so long as Cowboy Cadillac (4) runs top 2 and Waterhorse (5) joins him on the dais.

4/ 5/ 6. $30 gets 3000%
4/ 5/ 1,7,8. $30 gets 1000%
4/ 6/ 5. $10 gets 1000%
5/ 4/ 6. $5 gets 500%
5/ 4/ 1,7,8. $5 gets 166.67%

Best Roughies ($5 x $15)
I See Icy Earl (Race 5 no.10) $51/ $10.09 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
The feature trot is a race where they’re equally likely to walk most of the way or turn it into a last man standing affair. If the latter scenario plays out I remain convinced that the above squaregaiter can rip home quickly enough to cause a massive boilover – or figure in the placings at a super price.

American Muscle (Race 7 no. 1) $61/$5 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
I’m a little bit surprised at the ongoing disdain for this guy. Put simply, he has the gate speed to lead these for as long as he likes and if he hands up to the right horse early then he’ll get every chance to run a drum at $5 the hole.

Broadways Best (Race 7 no. 7) $51/ $11 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
I am more committed to this mare than I have been in most of my relationships so I’m not going to jump off tonight when she’s paying massive odds. The truth is she’s had no luck at all this campaign and while there’s very chance she’ll get none again tonight, the possibility of a brutal staying test will play right into her hands.

The Quads (x3) Click here to bet on the quaddie now
1/ 1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10/ 1,7,9/ 2,4,9,12. $96 gets 100%
1/ 1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10/ 5,6/ 2,4,9,12. $16 gets 25%
9,12/ 1,2,5,6,7,8,9,10/ 1,7,9/ 2,4,9,12. $38 gets 19.79%

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Saturday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Washmepockets: 1:53.38

Fastest Last Half – Broadways Best: 53.96secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Youranut: 27.05secs

Sectional Superstar
Victoria May (Race 6 no.7) – $3.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
First up last week for Alison Chisolm, Victoria May galloped after the start and lost considerable ground on the field.

After picking herself up she flew home to be beaten less than three metres behind Breeders Crown champion Carpenters Daughter.

She has to contend with the seven barrier but if she gets any luck in the run she will be very hard to beat.

Speed Maps

Race 1

There should be a spirited charge to the first turn here with CHRISTIAN TORADO (2), PUNCHINELLO (3) and WOODLEA BEAU (7) all hoping to find the pegs the first. CHRISTIAN TORADO (2) would almost certainly hand up if he found the top but the other e inclined to keep the front throughout. Off the second line BOBBY FABULOUS (9), GOWAN BRAE (10) and JIMMY THE EDITOR (12) are all capable of making mid-race moves or coming with one run while RUATO BAY (8) gets the awkward draw but will be dangerous if he gets off the pegs early on.

Race 2

LETS GO RABBITOH (1) and IDA TIGER (2) both have good early speed here and should off in an early battle for the front. If LETS GO RABBITOH (1) wins that war he’ll most likely shoot for an all-the-way triumph but if IDA TIGER (2) prevail he may well hand over to fellow fast starter BELATED (4) in the early stages. Either way JEAN BAPTISTE (13) will be on his bike in pursuit of the breeze at some stage in transit while SOTIRIS (8) will probably rely on inside runs and the rest will need luck to figure in the lane.

Race 3

There may well be a two horse battle for the lead here between HERE AND NOW (1) and FIFTH AND BROADWAY (5) but the former horse does thrive when able to lead to should hold all her rivals wide early on. If she does then SOPHIES IDEAL (2) should have the option of dropping in behind her as race favourite GOODTIME MARJIE (8) will almost certainly lag back at the start before circling her rivals in the run. The rest will all need some breaks to figure late although GUMDROPS (7) does possess a handy turn of foot and can be dangerous late if they run along throughout.

Race 4

NO BETTERTIME (1) has shot off the arm pretty quickly at his two runs so far this term and should have the speed to thwart any early from either GENERAL JUSTICE (3) or ELEVENTH COMMAND (6). If he does hold the top then STYNZ BOY (8) is the obvious candidate to lob the gun run in behind the lead while FOREST FURY (9) should make a mid race move in search of the breeze and other fancied runner DON’T WANADIE (12) will rely on a cart into things late or a hectic top end tempo to swamp her rivals late.

Race 5

ELEGANT IMAGE (1) has been crossed from the polemarking draw in couple of big features, including this race last year, but he’s the fastest starter off the front line here and should hold the wide pretty comfortably tonight. MY HIGH EXPECTATIONS (7) isn’t a brilliant beginner but he loves to roll forward and looks almost certain to try and occupy the chair while VULCAN (2) should hold his own and lob a handy spot and COLD SISTER (8) should receive the box-seat peg-line run. The rest will all be relying on some sort of luck although MISTER ZION (3) is likely to make his won three-side on the rack with KYVALLEY BLUR (6), HABIBTI (9) and I SEE ICY EARL (10) just some of the others who can rip home with the right trip in transit.

Race 6

SALS MO (1), ASTRONAUT (5), ARTOC (6) and VICTORIA MAY (7) can all fly the arm on their day so there should be a reasonable charge into the first turn here but SALS MO (1) loves to lead and it’s hard to see the others wresting the lead of him in Chris ‘Puppet’ Alford really wants the top. THE CAVALIER (8) will have to hunt up early to keep the leaders’ back but should end up three pegs at very worst while GOLDEN GRINDER (2) will also want a peg-line run and ALCHEMY (9) can sit back and wait for the dust to settle or make a mid-race move and play bully in the run.

Race 7

There are an endless number of possible scenarios here but one certainty is that AMERICAN MUSCLE (1) will lead for as long as Lance Justice likes and the decision he make will have a huge bearing on how the race is run. In the unlikely event that AMERICAN MUSCLE (1) opts to hold the top then pressure will be brought to bear from multiple McCarthy-trained runners in transit but if he hands up early it will either be to fellow fast starter THE GOLD ACE (2) – who himself may hand up to TERRORWAY (6) – or more likely stablemate YOURANUT (4) who’ll keep rolling forward as the mobile speeds away. Every second line runner barring MUSTANG MACH (8) and IM CORZIN TERROR (10) can race tough and still figure late so expect a brutally run Cranbourne Cup for the second year in a row.

Race 8

A few of these leave the mobile arm pretty swiftly but LIVING LORD (2) looks an 80% chance of finding the front first. Once he get there, expect early pressure from FIERY ACHIEVER (4) before noted stayer SAAB QUALITY (7) pours the speed on from outside the speed. In that scenario BAD CAT (1) will get the soft run he’ll need for any chance of placing while MAGICAL TELF (3) should smoke his pipe a few lengths off the speed before unleashing his paralysing finishing burst in the lane.

Race 9

As so often happens in PBD affairs, expect the outside front-line runners in COWBOY CADILLAC (4), WATERHORSE (5) and MACH RULER (6) to bully their way across those drawn to their inside with COWBOY CADILLAC (4) a warm favourite to take up the running. If he does lead then MACH RULER (6) looks most likely to sit parked with WATERHORSE (5) handy and all the other needing luck to figure at the knock.

Race 10

HONK DEVILLE (1) has a 20m advantage on his rivals here so he should be in front for some time at the start but if BLITZTHEMCALDER (3) steps safely he’ll be up to tackle very, very quickly. Once they find their spots there should be precious few moves and it would not surprise to see an Indian File of six peg-line runners with 800m to go.

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