Monday, December 2, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Warragul

The Game Plan for Warragul – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
There’s no sugar coating the fact that this is a moderate meeting in terms of class and that finding winners in low-class meeting is always a more difficult task that when talented, consistent horses are engaged across the card. Having said that, we do know that the Warragul track suits front-runners like few others in Victoria so by targeting a couple of likely leaders and a couple of decent roughies while also attacking a skinny Money Race and taking a couple of Quads I’m confident we can come out on top.
Best Bets ($25 Win)
Jetts Afella (Race 2 no. 1) $3.80
This bloke is no megastar but he does have some ability and after a string of disappointing efforts he found his feet again with an eye-catching effort last time out at Cranbourne. Critically, he does have gate speed and should lead for as long as he likes here so a repeat of his last start effort should see him prove too good.
Forest Fury (Race 5 no. 3) $3
A couple of these are ticking along OK but if the above mare brings her A-Game she will lead or sit parked and be extremely difficult to beat in either role.
Best Value ($15 x $10)
Punchinello (Race 1 no. 2) $5
I’m well aware that there are only two place dividends here but I’m willing to suggest that this bloke will occupy one of the top two spots based on the fact that I have him leading in a race of moderate pressure and that having trialled quite well at Melton last week he should be fit enough to hold the top and be the one to roll.
Best Roughies ($5 x $20)
Yankidoodledanvers (Race 7 no. 1) $21
There are no guarantees here as this mare hasn’t done much at all to date but she does arrive here for a new stable on the back of some OK trial efforts and if she gets the gun run in behind the speed as expected she should get every chance to place here at least.
Scydnee Bay (Race 7 no. 7) $21
This guy is even harder to read as he’s had just one start in the past 5 years and that was 2 years ago! He did have talent once upon a rainbow however and after two encouraging trial efforts he’s also worth a VERY speculative crack at what may well be exorbitant odds.
The Money Race – Race 4 (Flexi First 4’s for $50)
It does not take a Rhodes Scholar to work out that Living Lord (4) and Regal Knight (5) should fight this race out but I’m equally confident that Atomic Horizon (1) will join then on the podium. The below First 4’s are reasonably risky but we need to take a chance if we’re to take home any cash.
4,5/ 4,5/ 1/ Field. $34 gets 850%
4,5/ 1/ 4,5/ Field. $16 gets 400%
The Quads
4,5/ 1,3,7/ 8/ 3. $30 gets 500%
4,5/ 1,3,7/ 1,4,5/ 3. $18 gets 100%
4,5/ 1,3,7/ 8/ 1,2,4,7,9,10. $36 gets 100%
4,5/ 1,3,7/ 1,4,5/ 1,2,4,7,9,10. $16 gets 14.81%
Northam November 26: Harry Em $8 into $2.20 (unplaced)
($250 each way @ $8; $400 @ $5.50; $800 @$2.60)

Pinjarra November 25: Macintosh $1.75 into $1.15 (1st);
Kilmore November 26: Cold Major $6 into $3.20 (1st);
Bendigo November 28: Lombo Cloud Nine $4.20 into $2.50 (1st);
Menangle November 30: The Gold Ace $5 into $3.40 (1st);
Gloucester Park November 30: Well Hello Dolly $4.80 into $2.60 (1st).

Albion Park November 26: In The Frame Lombo $4.5 into $1.65 (3rd);
Northam November 26: Fully Zapped $12 into $5 (3rd);
Redcliffe November 27: Stormy Warrior $12 into $3.60 (2nd);
Leeton November 30: Ruby Rena $18 into $4.80 (unplaced);
Globe Derby November 30: Hamlett $14 into $3.80 (unplaced).

Horsham November 25: The Avoca Flyer $500 at $12 ($5500+ return);
Kilmore November 26: Bobby Fabulous $500 at $12 ($5500+);
Ballarat November 29: Caledonian Attack $400 at $14 ($5200+);
Albion Park November 26: End Of The Matter $600 at $9 ($4800+);
Menangle November 30: Baby Bling $1200 at $5 ($4800+).

Young November 29: Highview Conall $6000 at $2.20;
Bathurst November 27: Yabba Dabba Do $5650 at $1.40;
Menangle November 30: Majestic Mach $5500 at $1.80;
Ballarat November 29: Cowboy Cadillac $5000 at $2.50;
Menangle November 30: Smoken Up $5000 at $3.60.

December 6: Ladyship Stakes $75,000 Alexandra Park (NZ) G2;
December 6: Breeders Stakes $30,000 Alexandra Park (NZ) G3;
December 6: Lyell Creek Stakes $40,000 Alexandra Park (NZ) G2;
December 6: Golden Nugget $175,000 Gloucester Park (WA) G1;
December 7: Treuer Memorial $100,000 Bankstown (NSW) G1;
December 7: Cranbourne Cup $100,000 Cranbourne (VIC) G1;
December 7: Bill Collins Trotters Mile $50,000 Cranbourne (VIC) G1;
December 7: Lord Mayors Cup $25,000 Albion Park (QLD).  





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