Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Good Form Preview - NYE @ Lords Raceway

The Game Plan for Bendigo – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
When Harness Racing Victoria form expert Gareth Hall called me and told me how good this meeting was I couldn’t quite picture it with just six races on the program. But the proof is in the pudding and after assessing the meeting, I’m a convert. From a punting perspective there are plenty of ways to attack the six races so we will have a decent lash for the Good Form followers and hope to make an extra coin or two leading in to the New Year celebrations.

Best Bet ($100 win)
Flaming Flutter (Race 3 No.4) $1.90
Geoff Webster has done a magnificent job guiding this fella through his three-year-old season and his win in the Mildura Guineas before going for a break is testament to his prospects as a four-year-old. He comes into this race off the back of a thorough demolition at the Melton trials on December 23 and prior to that he stepped OK in a standing start trial back on December 9. If he is anywhere near his best tonight he should be winning at close to flip of the coin odds.

Best Roughie ($25 place)
Bellmac Kody (Race 5 No.1) $16
There is no need to break the bank here but this little trotter has shown plenty of talent in his juvenile and three-year-old careers and despite meeting two extremely talented horses tonight, I think he is a massive place hope. He returned from a break in much easier class at Charlton but still proved too strong for them so if he can step away and lob handy in along the pegs, I think he will run a big race.

The Money Races ($50 flexi trifectas)
Race 2
Like the second money race in the Game Plan tonight, we aren’t here to create a windfall, but as punters little wins can lead to big profits at the end of the night. So to kick things off we will play what looks a relatively easy trot race to read. Rostevarran (2) is in terrific form and should enjoy the smaller field here so rates at the one to beat while Just Call Me Earl (5) is on the verge of breaking through and is the clear second pick in the race and can even challenge our top tip. A fair way away, yet well clear of the fourth hope in the race is Mister Elwood (2) so we will play the trifectas this way.

2/5/3. $27 gets 2700%
5/2/3. $15 gets 1500%
2/3/5. $5 gets 500%
5/3/2. $3 gets 300%

Race 3
Again we have three main hopes in the opening leg of the Quaddie with one other who can blow them out at his best so we will anchor our best bet on the program, Flaming Flutter (4) in a few trifectas and play a couple more with either of the two dangers in Almost El Eagle (2) and Bushrod (6) to beat him. Nimble Jack (1) is the other that can fill a hole.

4/2,6/2,6. $15 gets 750%
2,6/4/2,6. $10 gets 500%
4/2,6/1. $10 gets 500%
4/1/2,6. $10 gets 500%
2,6/4/1. $5 gets 250%

The Octo-Quad ($100)
A very special Quaddie deserves a very special intro and that’s what we have tonight at Bendigo. Kicking off with race three, we have played our quaddies relatively conservatively while Jason Bonnington has been away but it’s time to whip out the eight-timer, the Octo-Quad. We will be staggering each of the first, third and fourth legs in order to not only make sure we snag the wily beast, but also to ensure we get a return on our investment. This is how we will be playing below.

4/1,2,3,7,8/2,11/10. $18 gets 225%
1,2,6/1,2,3,7,8/2,11/10. $15 gets 50%
4/1,2,3,7,8/1,10/10. $12 gets 150%
1,2,6/1,2,3,7,8/1,10/10. $10 gets 33.33%
4/1,2,3,7,8/2,11/2,4,11. $15 gets 50%
1,2,6/1,2,3,7,8/2,11/2,4,11. $13.50 gets 15%
4/1,2,3,7,8/1,10/2,4,11. $7.50 gets 25%
1,2,6/1,2,3,7,8/1,10/2,4,11. $9 gets 10%

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