Monday, December 16, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Hamilton

The Game Plan for Hamilton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
After a mammoth Vic Cup Carnival Good Form’s lead analyst Jason Bonnington is taking a break for the first time in a few years to re-charge the batteries so while he is away the Good Form Guru Andrew Evans and I will be helping punters find a winner at each Victorian meeting of the week. We kick-off with a seven race program at Hamilton today and with relatively small fields we should get our chance to attack a few Best Bets in an All Up plus some money races and the all-important Quaddie.

Best Bets/All Up ($50)
Weregonnarock (Race 1 No.1) $1.80
Although beaten out of a place for the first time last start at Tabcorp Park Melton, this little three-year-old trotter has proven more than handy in his eight starts to date. He comfortably accounted for the older squaregaiters prior to that and with his main danger handicapped 60 metres in arrears, he should be too good for his rivals today.

Bliss Man (Race 2 No.1) $1.20
In relative terms this guy is the stone cold moral of the day.  After going down narrowly first-up he has strung together four wins since returning to the stables of Graham Gee. From the pole it would take a disaster for him to be beaten today.

Beau Ciel (Race 7 No.4) $2
Not only does this mare have the score of consistency on her side, she is a last start Melton winner in 1:56.7. It may not have been the strongest C1 in history but if she can take up a handy position in the run then she will be hard to beat.

Best Value ($25 each way)
Dagati Image (Race 6 No.5) $4.20
This isn’t necessarily as easy as most heat into final races with the two preliminary races run at the tight Mount Gambier circuit in vastly different circumstances. In saying that this son of Tinted Cloud didn’t have it easy when first up from a little break, having to sit parked he worked right throughout the run and was sticking on well at the end. If we can get anything like the $4.20 in today’s Herald Sun then he is worth an each way investment.

The Money Races
Race 2 (Flexi Trifecta’s for $50)
As mentioned in our All Up earlier, this race looks fairly easy to read with Bliss Man (1) the likely leader and almost certain winner.  Alta Antonio (7) has the poor draw but in a small field that shouldn’t pose too many problems and his win last time at Mount Gambier is enough to rate him the clear danger. In a skinny race only Seven Nations (5) and Elsu Prince (6) can fill the other podium position.

1/7/5. $25 gets 2500%
1/5/7. $10 gets 1000%
1/7/6. $10 gets 1000%
1/6/7. $5 gets 500%

Race 4 (Flexi Trifecta’s for $50)
I’m really keen on this race from a betting perspective and what’s more there could be some value to be had. Jilliby Mac (2) was in the market last time in a handy C0 race but the wheels almost literally fell off down the back when she got a flat tyre. If we forgive that her debut performance is good enough to see her hard to beat today. The Jiggler (6) broke on debut but then put in a fantastic run when hard up on the promising Znana’s back last week. They spaced the others in that race so if he has any luck at all from the draw he will be right in the thick of it. There are two more key chances in the race so we will play the trifecta’s outlined below.

2/6,7/1,6,7,9. $30 gets 500%
6/2,7/1,2,7,9. $20 gets 333.33%

Quaddies (x4)
2,6/1,2,4,6,7/5,11/4,10. $40 gets 100%
1,7,9/1,2,4,6,7/5,11/4,10. $20 gets 33.33%
2,6/1,2,4,6,7/1,3,7,9/4,10. $25 gets 31.25%
1,7,9/1,2,4,6,7/1,3,7,9/4,10. $15 gets 12.5%


No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.