THE GAME PLAN for Ballarat – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)
BEST BETS/ALL UP
The below pair won’t be flash odds but I doubt they will be beaten so I’m going to take them in an all up for $200. If I can get back around $350 for my outlay then I’ll be a happy man.
Illawong Joyful (Race 1 no. 3) $2.20
This speedy filly is a proven 1:57.6 winner this track and distance and she looks ideally-placed tonight as she drops back to the short course after tackling a heat of the Victoria Oaks at Melton last time over the 2240m where she led and just felt the pinch in the last 100m to run a creditable fifth behind Courageousnquick. She should have little trouble leading these tonight and with a lack of any real pressure I expect her to be too slick for her rivals.
Rebel Rustler (Race 4 no. 6) $2
This guy was only having his third start in a race on this circuit last time and after whipping around the field from his back row draw to find the front he demolished his hapless rivals to break his maiden in fine style. He will find this a little bit harder tonight but he looks like strolling to the lead once more and if he reproduces a similar effort to last start they won’t beat him.
BEST VALUE BETS
In the pursuit of a little value I’ve come up with the below pair who I think will be very hard to beat at reasonable odds so I’m going to back them both each way with a total outlay of $200.
Cullen Time (Race 2 no. 9) $8 $30 Win x $70 Place
Big Bang Penny will be hard to beat in this and deserves favouritism but I’m going to have a decent crack at this filly at nice each way odds. She beat home Big Bang Penny in a heat of the Victoria Oaks two runs ago and has since gone on to run a gallant second to My Sunday Girl at Cranbourne where she led, copped some heat and fought on courageously. She was placed behind the very impressive Majorlook at Melton three back too and I think she has a great chance tonight.
Youranut (Race 7 no. 4) $3.20 $30 Win x $70 Place
This fellow really impressed at his first Victorian run for Ross Sugars at Geelong last Thursday night where he sustained a long run from the rear before racing away with the prize in the straight at the end of a 27.9 final quarter in a slippery 1:57.1 for the sprint trip. He will only be improved by that outing and although tonight’s assignment is a tad harder I think he will be mighty hard to hold out once more.
QUADDIES X3 $100 Spend
6/ 2/ 5,11/ 2,4. $12 gets you 300%
6/ 2,3,7,8/ 4,5,8,10,11/ 2,4,5,7,8. $50 gets you 50%
5,7,10,11/ 2,3,7,8/ 4,5,8,10,11/ 2,4,5,7,8. $38 gets you 9.5%
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