Good Form Preview - Mildura Cup Carnival/Night One

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

THE MONEY RACES

Illawong Geraldine, Flaming Flutter and American Muscle look three of the better bets on the program but all will be in the red so in the pursuit of value I’ve decided to play some trifectas in their respective races.  Below is how I’m attacking the three races with a total spend of $300, which along with my $100 Quaddie will take my total spend for the night to $400.  Here we go!

Race 2

3/ 1,2,6,7/ 1,2,6,7.  $76 gets you 633.33%

1,2,6,7/ 3/ 1,2,6,7.  $24 gets you 200%

Race 3

6/ 3/ 1,4,5,7,8,9.  $54 gets you 900%

6/ 1,4,5,7,8,9/ 3.  $34 gets you 566.66%

3/ 6/ 1,4,5,7,8,9.  $12 gets you 100%

Race 5

1/ 7/ 2,3,4,5,6,8,9.  $40 gets you 571.42%

1/ 2,3,4,5,6,8,9/ 7.  $39 gets you 557.14%

4,6,7/ 1/ 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9.  $21 gets you 100%

QUADDIES X 5 $100 Spend

1,9/ 1/ 2,4/ 2,3.  $40 gets you 500%

1,4,8,9/ 1/ 1,2,4/ 2,3.  $25 gets you 104.16%

1,4,8,9/ 1/ 1,2,4/ 5,6,11.  $15 gets you 41.66%

1,4,8,9/ 4,6,7/ 1,2,4/ 2,3.  $10 gets you 13.88%

1,4,8,9/ 4,6,7/ 1,2,4/ 5,6,11.  $10 gets you 9.25%

 

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Plenty of people will tell you that tonight’s programme is loaded up with easy winners but outside Flaming Flutter who’ll start about $1.10, I can’t find one. The Mildura Cup carnival always promotes extremely competitive racing, so there’ll be no easy leads and no easy wins. I don’t even want to take a Quaddie, so I’ve selected three Money Races for the night as the best way to make some coin, with Race 5 clearly the best betting race of the night.

Money Races

Race 1

3,9/ 3,5,9/ 2,3,5,6,7,8,9. $100 gets 500%

Race 3

6/ 3/ 1,4,5,7,9. $50 gets 1000%
6/ 1,4,5,7,9/ 3. $30 gets 600%
6/ 1,4,5,7,9/ 1,4,5,7,9. $20 gets 100%

Race 5

1/ 7/ 2,4,6,8,9. $50 gets 1000%.
1/ 2,4,6,8,9/ 7. $25 gets 500%.
1/ 7/ 3,5. $5 gets 250%.
7/ 1/ 2,4,6,8,9. $10 gets 200%.
4,6/ 1/ 2,4,6,7,8,9. $10 gets 100%.

MILDURA TRAINER TALK – SHAYNE CRAMP

Best Chance

Washington Heritage (Race 6 no.2) – Click here to bet on this horse now

“He always seems to step up to the mark and do enough. He is just a good all-round horse and his work has been super since the Northern heats and Championship, I can’t fault him at all.

“He flies the gate, he’s got blistering gate speed and looking at it I just thought he would roll to the front and prove very hard to beat.

“We haven’t had to go anywhere yet. We will just get him through this week but he is a horse that could go places."

 

Others

Real Magic (Race 1 no.9)

“He’s a nice horse, he got checked out of that heat of the Northern Region race which took him out of it but his other two wins have been super.

“He is pretty tough and pretty fast so I will be telling Greg (Sugars, driver) to put him into the race at some stage. He sat in the breeze and ran a half in 55 when he won at Swan Hill so he is capable of doing a bit of work and still performing well, especially in this class of race.

Elque (Race 2 no.7)“Coming off a long spell he has been better than ever winning his last two so he will just need a bit of luck with the draw. I can’t see why he won’t run a good race if he gets out somewhere. I’m not sure how far he will get but if he continues to show the improvement he has this time in then he will win a few more up here, that’s for sure.

Aldebaran Macha (Race 3 no.4) “It’s hard to compare my three in the race, Aldebaran Macha has only had the one start but he’s always shown a lot of promise at home. He is a horse that can do a little bit wrong, he can pull and things like that but on ability I’d go as far as to say he has as much as anything. I would think he is my best chance in the race.

Hotasel (Race 3 no.5)
“Hotasel has the form on the board, he’s won five out of eight and he is just an honest little horse. The bad draw (five) doesn’t help him but he is the one with the form on the board.

Major Capital (Race 3 no.9)

“Major Capital has been around for a while now, he raced the older horses in the Northern Regions and went really well and he gets back to his own age group which will really help him.

“The last run was a career best; he went super coming from last in a track record to run second. He has run second to Jamies Boy in a couple of free for all’s and this looks like an easier race for him. He is a horse that can do a bit of work so I’d predict him to run a good race. He is very strong."

The Ragpickers Dream (Race 5 no.2)

“He is going better than his form suggests, he hasn’t had any luck at all since we brought him. He’s drawn good and he’s got good gate speed. I would think he is a great chance of making the cup if he can hold a forward position."

 

Jamies Boy (Race 7 no.2) – Click here to bet on this horse now

“I can actually see him holding the front. I know people think that Five Star Anvil is quick out – and he probably is – but Jamies Boy has got equal speed to any horse I’ve trained. I would be very surprised if we didn’t hold him out.

“We’ve never really asked him to run the gate on too many occasions because he hasn’t needed to but I’m confident he can spear out and hold a forward position. He knows this track like the back of his hand.

“My horses – particularly Washington Heritage and Jamies Boy – they haven’t raced for a little while so they are there to have a good hit out; they will be being driven as though these are the Cup races themselves, I won’t be holding anything back that’s for sure.”