Good Form Preview - Dirty Dozen at Melton

HUTCHY'S VIDEO PREVIEW

THE GAME PLANS for Melton

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

BEST BETS/ALL UP

Frith (Race 5 no. 10) $2

Top class filly who has had a bumper season already, winning 6 of her 7 outings and she arrives here off the back of dominant victories in heat and final of the Gold Bracelet at Bathurst.  She took out the Young Oaks prior and finished a game second to Itz Nosurprisesthere in the NSW Oaks before that and I think she will be too good.

Im Smouldering (Race 8 no. 5) $2.10

Performed well through the NSW Oaks series at Menangle, winning a heat stylishly before going on to run a close-up third to Itz Nosurprisesthere in the Final and she was tuned up for this with an easy Shepparton triumph from the front end 8 days ago.  I expect her to push forward, race up on the pace and be a shade too strong.

*You can back these individually for as much as you like but I’m going to roll them together in an all up for $100.

THE MONEY RACES

I’ve come up with Races 3,5 and 8 as the best to target from an exotic point of view and tonight I’m going to get stuck into some First Fours.  Below is how I’m playing for $300, which along with the above all up plus the Quaddie and Big6 will take my total outlay for the night to $600.  Here we go!

Race 3

2,3,4/ 2,3,4/ 2,3,4/ 5,6,8,9,10,11,13.  $50 gets you 104.16%

2,3,4/ 2,3,4/ 5,6,8,9,10,11,13/ 2,3,4.  $50 gets you 104.16%

Race 5

10/ 1,2,6,7/ 1,2,3,6,7,9/ 1,2,3,6,7,9.  $100 gets you 125%

Race 8

5/ 1/ 8/ Field.  $40 gets you 500%

5/ 1/ Field/ 8.  $24 gets you 300%

5/ 8/ 1/ Field.  $12 gets you 150%

1/ 5/ 8/ Field.  $16 gets you 200%

1/ 5/ Field/ 8.  $8 gets you 100%

QUADDIE $100 Spend

2,4,8/ 10/ 1,2,3,4,8/ 1,3,4,5,8.  $100 gets you 133.33%

BIG6 $100 Spend

2,3,4/ 2,4,8/ 10/ 1,2,3,4,8/ 1,3,4,5,8/ 5.  $100 gets you 44.44%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Bet

Shake It Mama (Race 7 no. 3) $2 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse

This will be no news to my Twitter followers as I’ve been banging on about Shake It Mama winning this race ever since she was opened at $2.70 earlier in the week. Put simply, she is a terrific beginner who should find the front pretty easily and if she does they will not run her down. Even if for some strange reason she doesn’t get to the front, I still think she’ll be a bit too good. Even if you didn’t get the $2.70, get on at $2 because she’ll be shorter tonight.

Best Value

Mister Sheedy (Race 3 no. 3) $5

Not sure we’ll be getting $5 about this bloke but if he’s anything like that quote then it’s suggested you have a straight out crack. He was on-fire at this track and distance through heat and final of an MO series last month, winning in 1:52, then running second in 1:52.9 after working overtime from a second line draw. The favourite Bellas Delight (2) is a huge hope of getting crossed in this and if Mister Sheedy can roll to the top or even sit parked he should probably win.

Speed Map Special – Best Roughie

Illawong Joyful (Race 4 no. 6) $13 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse

I have the feeling something very beautiful could be in store here and I’m more than happy to share it. The facts are, this girl goes 1000% better when she finds the front, which she almost certainly will tonight. Her main danger, Itz Nosurprisesthere (8) was poor last start and has drawn atrociously tonight – it will take an incredible Chris Alford drive to get her into the race. Almost all of Illawong Joyful’s rivals have question marks or convictions, including those above her in the market. And finally, Illawong Joyful was outstanding last time out when pulling throughout if fast early fractions. Greg Sugars takes over from sister Kylie tonight and if you put plenty on the WIN and three times as much the PLACE you should walk away pretty pleased with yourself.

The Money Race
 
Race 7

This looks an incredible betting race on what appears a sensational night for punting. As outlined above, I think Shake It Mama (3) will work to the front and just win. Equally, if you ignore the disappointing performance of Steam Washed (1) last start – her first run for a month – she should hold the leader’s back and comfortably run second, or third at very worst. Following that theme Valiant Sue (8) should be three pegs and a massive chance of running a place but there are a few other possibilities so check out the Game Plan below for my five Trifectas.

3/ 1/ 8. $80 gets 8000%.
3/ 8/ 1. $20 gets 2000%.
3/ 1/ 4,5,9. $60 gets 2000%.
3/ 1/ 2,11. $10 gets 500%.
3/ 4,5,9/ 1. $30 gets 1000%.

Best Quinella
Our Femme Fatale (Race 8 no. 1) & Im Smouldering (Race 8 no. 5)

This will be news to nobody but the fact of the matter is it may pay $2 and it may well be the easiest even money bet you’ll ever place in your life. These two are head & shoulders above their rivals and will run one-two barring accidents tonight.

Quaddies (x2)

6,8/ 1,2,6,7,10/ 1,3,4/ 3. $75 gets 250%.
1,2,4,5,12/ 1,2,6,7,10/ 1,3,4/ 3. $25 gets 33.33%

Big 6’s (x2)

2,3,4/ 6,8/ 1,2,6,7,10/ 1,3,4/ 3/ 1,5. $75 gets 41.67%
2,3,4/ 1,2,4,5,12/ 1,2,6,7,10/ 1,3,4/ 3/ 1,5. $25 gets 5.56%

*CAVEAT – if either of these bets are FLYING before RACE 7 then consider betting around SHAKE IT MAMA in the Ian Daff Memorial. I think she’d almost a good thing but sometimes it’s better safe than sorry, depending upon your outlay.

Tabcorp Park Melton Trainer Talk – David Aiken

Best Chance

Fast Flyer (Race 10 no.3) – Click here to bet on this horse now.

“She was really good at her first trial but then she had a cold after her second one. She came back last week to qualify and it worked out because she needed the trial anyway.

“I really like her, she beat Quick Draft by a good margin in her first trial and we have an opinion of her too.

“I’ve seen a little bit of Adam Kelly’s one, Fon Design, and she goes well but we really like our filly. She’s a big filly so we will probably give her a little break after this series then aim her at the Sires.”

Others

Composed (Race 3 no.6)

“He’s going alright; he just hasn’t had a lot of luck at the moment. He ran a nice second two starts ago but there is a bit of speed on the inside of him here. Over the short trip we will probably have to go forward but Mister Sheedy ran a 1:52 mile here the other week so he is going to be pretty hard to beat I would think.”

My High Expectations (Race 6 no.1) $2.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now.

“We were rapt in his performances through the Great Southern Star series. I drove him really badly in the first heat but it worked out a bit better in the final.

“The only thing I’m worried about is that it’s his first time back in the draw and he can be a little iffy at the standing starts but he has trained on really well. He worked well this morning so the only real concern is the inside draw. He has been stepping away pretty good he can just sometimes be a little risky.

“He really likes the longer journey. He’s actually pretty versatile, he’s got a bit of speed and he has done really well over in the extended races this season. He is still a metro maiden so hopefully this will be the race where he can get that out of the way. He has really stepped up this year, at the moment he is going as good as any trotter around.”

Cold Sister (Race 6 no.3)

“She’s going really well, she’s just an honest mare which gives her a chance in anything she competes in.”

Real Bonus (Race 7 no.5) $8 TAB Fixed Odds– Click here to bet on this horse now.

“It’s a big step up in class from last Friday night. There is a lot of depth all the way through the field but it is an M0-3 feature race so we expected that.

“It’s a very open race, there are going to be plenty of chances but my girl is going really well at the minute. She’s got good speed early it just depends on how long it’s going to take her to work across.”

Quick Draft (Race 12 no.3)

“We were really happy with her first start. She goes pretty good and we would expect her to be prominent in that race. It can be hard to get a guide on the first starters but we are happy with how she is going.”

STAR TRIALLER

Shake It Mama (Race 7 no. 3) $2 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

Having her first run since finishing down the track in last season’s Breeders Crown Final behind Cheer The Lady and she should be ready to run a race after winning trials at Maryborough and on this circuit in the past month.  She normally leaves the gate well, should settle in or near the lead and is sure to be mighty hard to beat fresh.

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