Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Good Form Preview - Tuesday @ Geelong

The Game Plan for Geelong – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bets/All-Up ($50)
Goldiedomic (Race 2 no. 1) $1.45
This mare has been ticking along nicely without breaking through for Chris Lang Jnr and seems to have found her perfect race tonight. A quick beginner who loves the short course she should hold her rivals wide from the polemarking draw and lead this lot a merry dance at pretty short odds.

Our Nancy Miles (Race 4 no. 5) $3.75
Not entirely sure what odds we’ll get about this girl but in an even field she looks the standout after changing course late but still battling on very well behind class commodities Sals Mo, Regal Knight and Fearless Leader at her first Victorian run. Ross Sugars has a reasonable opinion of her and I think she’ll be winning here w/ any luck at all.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Rubys Bad Boy (Race 5 no. 13)  $4.25
This guy did more than enough in his first Australian campaign last prep, he handles the stand start Ok and his list of rivals here does not include any starts so if you’re getting Ok odds get involved tonight.

The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
Race 2
As mentioned earlier I think Goldiedomic (1) is very close to a moral here so let’s play the two Tricks outlined below and hope the top one lobs!

1/ 2,6,9/ 2,6,9. $26 gets 433.33%
1/ 2,6,9/ 4,7,8,11. $24 gets 200%

Race 5
Standing start affairs are always fraught w/ danger but the class should rise to the top here tonight. We’re probably not going to retire on what we win but after a good couple of days it should keep the coffers ticking along.

4,8,11,13. $32 gets 133.33%
4,8,11,13/ 4,8,11,13/ 1,10. $12 gets 50%
4,8,11,13/ 4,8,11,13/ 2,5. $6 gets 25%

The Quads (x3)
5/ 4,8,11,13/ 1,5,6,7,8,9/ 6,7,12. $48 gets 66.67%
5/ 4,8,11,3/ 1,5,6,7,8,9/ 2,3,10. $24 gets 33.33%
2,4,6/ 4,8,11,13/ 1,5,6,7,8,9/ 6,7,12. $28 gets 12.96%


The Game Plan for Geelong with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).
Best Value
 (Race 5 No 1 Hellfire Angel) ($50 Each Way) $6.50
This guy flew home after getting shuffled a long way back behind Macho Comacho last start. He usually steps well and from his inside front line draw he should land in a good spot early and be right in the finish.  
Money Race
Race 2 (Quinella)
1,4 for $50

Quads (x4)
2,4,5,6/ 1,2,4,13/ 8,9/ 6 $40 gets 125%
2,4,5,6/ 1,2,4,13/ 7/ 6 $10 gets 62.50%
2,4,5,6/ 1,2,4,13/ 8,9/ 2,3,4,7 $40 gets 31.25%
2,4,5,6/ 1,2,4,13/ 7/ 2,3,4,7 $10 gets 16.625%



TAB.COM.AU LATEST
MOVE OF THE WEEK:
Albion Park October 15: Modern Slippa $3.50 into $1.75 (1st)
($600 @ $3.50; $1000 @ $2.40; $800 @ $1.90).

WHERE THERE'S SMOKE THERE'S FIRE:
Pinjarra October 14: Korobeit Angel $2.20 into $1.50 (1st);
Shepparton October 15: Crusader Acey $2.60 into $1.40 (1st);
Redcliffe October 17: Pegleg Webb $2.80 into $1.60 (1st);
Bathurst October 18: Itdontmattertome $3 into $1.45 (1st);
Albion Park October 19: Lets Walk The Walk $5.50 into $2.60 (1st).

LEFT IT IN THE BAG:
Globe Derby October 14: Traveller $21 into $6.50 (unplaced);
Pinjarra October 14: Dreamy Eyes $8 into $3 (unplaced);
Shepparton October 15: Turnoffate $10 into $3.20 (unplaced);
Penrith October 17: Mikaela's Delight $12 into $4 (unplaced);
Newcastle October 19: Cold Kentucky Rain $9 into $4 (unplaced).

HITS:
Melton October 18: Woodlea Beau $500 at $11 ($5000+ return);
Melton October 18: Forever Perfect $500 at $9 ($4000+);
Penrith October 17: Bending Spoons $4000 at $2 ($4000+);
Hobart October 13: Star Chamber $2500 at $2.60 ($4000+);
Globe Derby October 19: Nothingmuch $500 at $8.50 ($3750+).
 
MISSES:
Menangle October 19: Heza Presidente $5000 at $1.25;
Albion Park October 15: Chal Fire $5000 at $1.50;
Wagga October 18: Shootforthestarzzz $4000 at $1.55;
Swan Hill October 19: Wolowitz $3600at $1.60;
Menangle October 15: Nickys Invasion $3500 at $2.

PRE-POST THIS WEEK:
October 25: Goulburn HRC Championship Final $30,000 G3 Goulburn (NSW);
October 25: Navy Cup $35,000 G3 Gloucester Park (WA);
October 25: The Preux Chevalier $25,000 Listed Gloucester Park (WA);
October 26: Garrards QLD Pacing Championship (Grand Circuit) $200,000 G1 Albion Park (QLD);
October 27: Kilmore Pacing Cup $70,000 G2 Kilmore (VIC);
October 27: Popular Alm Sprint $30,000 G3 Kilmore (VIC);
October 27: Kilmore Trotters Cup $20,000 G3 Kilmore (VIC). 

Monday, October 21, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Maryborough


The Game Plan for Maryborough – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Pleasingly, after a difficult weekend, I reckon I’ve found a few today! And even more pleasingly, most Good Form followers should be cashed up after the Guru landed a massive Quaddie at Cranbourne last night. Not sure the odds will hold up for all of them but I am targeting 3 Best Bets in a little Formula 2, plus 1 Best Roughie, 2 Money Races & a cavalcade of Quads.

Best Bets/ Formula 2 ($60 gets 20 units)

Eliseos Falcon (Race 2 no. 1) $2.20

I’m well aware that third guy is stepping up to take on older horse early in his 3Yo term but there’s something about him I really like and if he can hold his rivals wide early here as expected I think it will take a big performance to run him down today.

Endorsement (Race 4 no. 1) $3.25

I’m really bullish here. A short course specialist that thrives on leading and won a similar race to this three starts back @ Shepparton, he gets everything made to order here and should be winning as a result.

Lite Jagermeister (Race 7 no. 11) $3.50

In short, I’ve been really impressed with this former Kiwi mare’s last couple of wins where she’s done it tough and proven too strong, so even from the awkward draw here I think she’ll come with one long run and hunt her rivals down.

Best Roughie ($5 x $35)

Cityscape (Race 4 no. 8) $13

In the Speed Map scenario that I have envisaged this bloke is a great hope of punching through and holding the back of likely leader Endorsement (1) here and given he almost always performs best off soft peg-line trips I’m keen he’ll run a drum at pretty handy odds.

The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)

Race 2

As previously mentioned, I’m pretty bullish about Eliseos Falcon (1) winning this race while I’m also confident that the key threat and only hope of blousing that horse is Bliss Man (3). Doey Doeback (2) is also a clear third pick so we should be able to get something out of this race w/ a big %.

1/ 3/ 2. $25 gets 2500%

1/ 3/ 5,6. $6 gets 300%

1/ 2/ 3. $10 gets 1000%

3/ 1/ 2. $9 gets 900%

Race 4

Endorsement (1) is going to play a big role in whether this is a good day or not so we’d really love him to lob from here and then we’re going to favour those likely to follow the pegs and those up on the speed to run in here behind him.

1/ 2,3,8,9/ 2,3,8,9. $38 gets 316.67%

1/ 2,3,8,9/ 4,5,11. $12 gets 100%

The Quads (x6)

1/ 7,10/ 1,7,8,11,12/ 11. $20 gets 200%

1/ 7,10/ 1,7,8,11,12/ 7. $10 gets 100%

1/ 2,3,4,5,6/ 1,7,8,11,12/ 7. $12.50 gets 50%

2,3,8/ 7,10/ 1,7,8,11,12/ 11. $30 gets 100%

2,3,8/ 7,10/ 1,7,8,11,12/ 7. $15 gets 50%

2,3,8/ 2,3,4,5,6/ 1,7,8,11,12/ 11. $12.50 gets 16.67%

Star Trialler (Racing Today)

Fiery Rum (Race 8 no. 7) $35

This Peter Hornsby-trained trotter has been marked a $35 chance in today’s Herald Sun following two less than encouraging efforts at Menangle back in late August/early September however he has been trialling well at Shepparton of recent times. The one trick here is that he has been prone to make mistakes in his trials and races however when he does everything right he has travelled like a squaregaiter who could easily knock off a T0-T1 race like the one he has drawn tonight. He will start from the outside of the front row today and we will have to hold our breath in the run, but if his manners are in check he will cause them serious havoc.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Good Form Preview - Sunday Sesh @ Cranny


The Game Plan for Cranbourne - with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV)

Best Value

Race 3 No 4 Dancinwithjodi ($25 Each Way) $4.75
This mare has the necessary speed to cross those drawn inside her at the start. She will most likely take a sit from there and in a race that doesn’t have a lot of winning chances she looks a strong each way chance.

Race 6 No 1 Sheila Blige ($25 Each Way) $11
This mare should get the run of the race behind likely leader Yellow Diamond. Her best performances have come when she has been able to get cover and be saved up for one sprint. She looks a great each way hope here in a race where some of her more favoured rivals have drawn poorly.

Money Races
Race 4 $50

5/ 4/ 1,2,3,6 $25 gets 625%
5/ 1,2,3,6/ 4 $15 gets 375%
4/ 5/ 1,2,3,6 $10 gets 250%

Race 7 $50
4,5/ 4,5/ 1,6,8 $30 gets 500%
4,5/ 1,6,8/ 4,5 $12 gets 200%
4,5/ 1,6,8/ 1,6,8 $8 gets 66.66%

The Quads (x5)
5/ 2/ 1,7/ 4,5 $40 gets 1000%
4/ 2/ 1,7/ 4,5 $20 gets 500%
4,5/ 3,5,10/ 1,7/ 4,5 $24 gets 100%
4,5/ 3,5,10/ 8,9/ 4,5 $6 gets 25%
4,5/ 2/ 8,9/ 4,5 $10  gets 125%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, October 18, 2013

Good Form Preview - Saturday Night @ Nyah Cup @ Swan Hill


The Game Plan for Nyah Cup night - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Bet ($50 Win)

Will Atone (Race 9 no. 3) $1.80
This laste bllomer has been flying of late and looks thrown in off 10m when you consider her well above average talent.

Best Roughies ($5 x $20)

Thats Mister Ali (Race 7 no. 2) $26/ $5.44 TAB Fixed Odds
A brilliant beginner from the stand on his day he looks a big chance of finding the pegs first and running a massive race once he does.

Jukebox Music (Race 7 no. 6) $26/ $5.44 TAB Fixed Odds
I think this bloke is in career best form and given he ALWAYS races his best under these conditions the place price in particular looks the way to go. I would wait for Pari odds for both these horses thoguh becayse they'll both pay better than $5 the drum.

The Money Races

Race 4

5,11,12,13 Boxed. $26 gets 108.33%
5,11,12,13/ 5,11,12,13/ 2,6,7,10. $24 gets 50%

Race 5

7,9/ 7,9/ 1,2,3,6,8,10. $36 gets 300%
7,9/ 1,2,3,6,8,10/ 7,9. $14 gets 116.67%

Race 6

2/ 1,3,8,10/ 1,3,8,10. $24 gets 200%
2/ 1,3,8,10/ 4,9,12. $9 gets 75%
1,3,8,10/ 2/ 1,3,8,10. $15 gets 125%
1,3,8,10/ 2/ 4,9,12. $2 gets 16.67%

The Quads (x2)

5,11,12,13/ 7,9/ 2,3,8,10/ 3,10,11,12. $84 gets 65.63%
5,11,12,13/ 7,9/ 1,9/ 3,10,11,12. $16 gets 25%

NYAH CUP

·         The NYAH CUP has been run since 1968 at Nyah with last year the first year on the new track at SWAN HILL.

·         Look out for Daryl Douglas who has won the race 5 times including 4 of the last 6. Kerryn Manning is next best with 3 wins.

·         Not really a roughies type race with the last 5 winners being well in the market (under $8.00).

·         Hard race to trend as run only once a new track (which was opening night. Interestingly most winners were coming off a mobile run in a good class metro race before contesting this race.

·         CONCLUSION: Looking for fancied runner off the front who is coming from metropolitan form..











Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ TP

Jason's Melton preview



The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I’m still nursing the wounds of having not completely cleaned up at Ballarat last night but I am ready to take vengeance of this enticing card. The tricky thing tonight is knowing when to hold ‘em and knowing when to fold ‘em because almost every race looks worth a punt, but in the interests of self-discipline we’re going to target a tidy little All-Up to finish off the program plus three Best Roughies, two Money Races and a quartet of Quads.

Best Bets/ All-Up ($75)
Arber (Race 8 no. 11) $2.50 Click here to bet on this horse now
Put simply, this bloke is better than his rivals when on song and this preparation, he is on song. The draw is his only obstacle here but Jason Lee should ensure he gets a good run into things and if he does he should prove too good.

Racer (Race 9 no. 1) $1.20 Click here to bet on this horse now
This bet is mildly speculative because we’ve yet to see this bloke in Australia but his Kiwi form, which includes vanquishing Breeders Crown star Our Maxim, is 1000 yards better than his rivals here and he is also has the gate speed to use his polemarking draw.

Suspicious Behavia (Race 10 no. 7) $1.70 Click here to bet on this horse now
I’m also going out on a limb a little here as this guy’s been tackling the sprint trips since being transferred to Melbourne, but I just think he’s got something on these and if he finds the front they will not run him down.

Best Roughies ($5 x $20)
Mister Orion (Race 1 no. 3) $12 Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke always needs a stack of luck in his races but he’s almost certain to start in double figures and is one of those horses that will always run on late and is always worth a 1 x 4 wager in this sort of race.

Illawong Kath (Race 5 no. 1) $9 Click here to bet on this horse now
This mare’s giving a little something away in terms of class here but she is travelling much, much better than her figure formline might suggest and gets the ideal draw for her sit-sprint racing style. Again, she’s not my top tip in the race, but she’s a worth a 1 x 4 wager if she starts at decent odds.

Because I Can (Race 7 no. 2) $16 Click here to bet on this horse now
He meets the big guns tonight but really caught the eye behind Abettorpunt last start and given that he looks a 90% chance of finding the early lead and holding everything wide until stablemate Smoken Up relieves him of the top I think he’s a super chance of filling whichever podium position isn’t occupied by  Smoken Up or Bitobliss.

The Money Races
Race 2 ($50 Flexi Trifectas) Click here to bet on this race now
Heat winners Ourbellabro (6) & Alta Tearaway (1) were both pretty impressive in their most recent efforts at Bendigo and given they’ll both occupy forward positions here I expect them BOTH to finish on the dais and form there we’re going to hope for some value in the other top-three position.

6/ 1/ 2,4,8,9. $24 gets 600%
6/ 2,4,8,9/ 1. $10 gets 250%
1/ 6/ 2,4,8,9. $10 gets 250%
1/ 2,4,8,9/ 6. $6 gets 150%

Race 7 ($100 Flexi Trifectas) Click here to bet on this race now
I cannot envisage any scenario where Smoken Up (12) and Bitobliss (13) won’t BOTH finish on the podium tonight and with limited hopes to join them there I’m hopeful and confident we can make something decent out of the race.

12,13/ 12,13/ 1,2,10,11. $64 gets 800%
12,13/ 1,2,10,11/ 12,13. $32 gets 400%
12,13/ 12,13/ 5,7. $4 gets 100%

The Quads (x4) Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
5,6/ 3,6/ 5,9/ 12,13. $56 gets 350%
5,6/ 1,9/ 5,9/ 12,13. $16 gets 100%
5,6/ 3,6/ 5,9/ 1,2,10,11. $24 gets 75%
5,6/ 1,9/ 5,9/ 1,2,10,11. $4 gets 12.5%


The Game Plan for Melton with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).

Best Value
(Race 1 No 2 Run Forrest) ($20W/$30P) $7.50 Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy has been going along well without much luck in recent times. He has enough gate speed to hold a spot at the start and if he ends up getting a favourable run he could land the major prize at good odds.

Money Races
Race 6 (First Four) $50  Click here to bet on this race now
9/ 4,5,10/ 4,5,10/ 4,5,10 $18 gets 300%
9/ 4,5,10/ 4,5,10/ 1,3,6,7 $12 gets 50%
9/ 4,5,10/ 1,3,6,7/ 4,5,10 $6 gets 25%
4,5,10/ 9/ 4,5,10/ 4,5,10 $6 gets 100%
4,5,10/ 9/ 4,5,10/ 1,3,6,7 $6 gets 25%
4,5,10/ 9/ 1,3,6,7/ 4,5,10 $2 gets 8.33%

Race 8 (First Four) $50 Click here to bet on this race now
9,11/ 9,11/ 5,7,8,10/ 3,5,7,8,10 $35 gets 109%
9,11/ 5,7,8,10/ 9,11 / 3,5,7,8,10 $15 gets 46%

Race 9 (Trifecta) $50 Click here to bet on this race now
1/ 6/ Field $25 gets 357%
1/ Field/ 6 $25 gets 357%
Quaddie x4 Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
5,6,9/ 6/ 4,5,9/ 13 $30 gets 333.33%
5,6,9/ 1,2,3/ 4,5,9/ 13 $30 gets 111.11%
5,6,9/ 6/ 4,5,9/ 2,10,11 $20 gets 74.07%
5,6,9/ 1,2,3/ 4,5,9/ 2,10,11 $20 gets 24.69%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Tim Bolitho
Best Chance
Arber (Race 8 no.11) $2.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He was terrific at Geelong; he couldn’t have been more impressive. He probably gave them 10 lengths going into the back straight and made a mess of them.

“I just think, barring bad luck, he will be in it up to his ears. If they walk early he will have to make his own luck but otherwise we will be hoping for some good speed and he will unwind at the right time.

Others
Alta Tearaway (Race 2 no.1) $2.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
"He’s drawn perfectly and he’s a C3 in that final. He’s going well so we’ll just be hoping he goes as well as he did at Geelong because he will certainly give them something to chase.

Flaxton Filly (Race 2 no.2) $21 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She’s going well but I don’t think she is quite in the class of the other bloke. If she gets the race run to suit her she could make it interesting.

Our Summer Wind (Race 10 no.5) $5.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I think he could be the forgotten horse here, there should be some speed on which will suit him and if he gets tucked up he has a terrific 200-metre sprint. He’s still finding his form and I probably sound a bit like Gai Waterhouse but they are all good chances tonight.

Sectionals
To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Cut For An Ace: 1:54.78

Fastest Last Half – Donegal Delight: 55.33secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Catch Your Breath: 27.00secs

Sectional Superstar
Knapdale Girl (Race 3 no.11)
– $12 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This girl has the horror draw again tonight but it’s impossible to ignore her sectional performance last week.

Not only did she record the quickest first half of the last mile by quite a margin, she has ripped home in the second quickest last half and the clearly quickest last quarter of the race.

With even luck in tonight’s race she can be a major player.


Precedents & Pointers

VHRC CLASSIC

·         There have been 28 editions of the VHRC CLASSIC, the previous 3 at Tabcorp Park Melton. The race history is littered with stars right back to SINBAD BAY, through SOKYOLA, MELPARK MAJOR & SMOKEN UP.

·         Leading driver Brian Gath with 4 wins followed by Lance Justice with 3.

·         The popular elects always prove the ones to beat with all recent winners being well fancied, last year at $1.30 (SMOKEN UP). Last 3 winners $1.30, $4.60 & $2.40.

·         The race has favoured horses up the front with two of the last three leading all the way from front row draws, while DECORATED JASPER sat behind the leader in 2011.

·         The previous three winners have all run well in the same or better class at their previous start with SMOKEN UP coming off a FFA win.

·         CONCLUSION: No tricks here, look for the best horse from the best draw.


ALDEBARAN PARK R.C. FREESTONE TROTTERS CUP

·         There have been 34 editions of the R.C. Freestone Totters Cup, the previous 3 at Tabcorp Park Melton. The race history is littered with stars right back to SCOTCH NOTCH, through TRUE ROMAN, KNIGHT PISTOL & SUNDONS GIFT.

·         The Langs’ have dominated this race with Graeme Lang having won it 7 times followed by son Gavin with 5 and grandson Chris (JNR) with 3.

·         The popular elects always prove the ones to beat with all recent winners being well fancied, last year at $3.10 (MISTER ZION). Odds on favourites feature prominently throughout although MISS WARBUCKS did cause a boilover 2 years ago at $43.60!

·         The race has favoured horses up the front with two of the last three being right on the pace, while great stayer MISTER ZION came with a late run.

·         MISS WARBUCKS bucked the trend but the majority of winners have all run well in the same or better class at their previous start.

·         CONCLUSION: Again not looking for any surprises here, look for the best horse.