Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Geelong

The Game Plan for Geelong – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Bet

Magical Molly (Race 1 no. 9) $1.90
She was terrific in both heat and final off a strong C1 series at her past two starts and should be whipping around to control – and ultimately win – this race even from her second line draw. I marked her $1.50 so if you’re getting any better than that, get involved.

Best Value

Thunder Fee (Race 2 no. 6) $6 ($25 Each Way)
This mare has excellent potential but the biggest reason I’m backing her tonight is because the horse to beat, Glenferrie Shuffle (4) is likely to be driven very cold, just as she was last start, and I’m not sure she can spot this pacer 15 or 20 metres in transit and run her down off what may well be a very slow speed.

Mary Mon (Race 5 no. 8) $7 ($25 Each Way)

An almost perpetual Black Booker, this filly  has promised the world and is probably yet to deliver but tonight’s race is handy without being overly strong and given Courageousnquick (5) will be favourite and facing facts, isn’t the most reliable pacer ever to race, I’m happy to take the value about a horse with at least her talent at much better odds.

Best Roughies

Realy Under Fire (Race 4 no. 1) $21 ($25 Place)
This bloke is unlikely to win but he looks a very reasonable place proposition at the price having just cleaned up an inferior field to this off a soft trip last time out.

Vesper Lynd (Race 7 no. 4) $21 ($10 x $15)

This mare has won two of her three starts at Geelong and placed on the other occasion. Tonight she finds herself in a handy but hardly terrifying event and at massive odds she has some chance of causing a boil-over and a great hope of running a drum.

The Money Races

Race 1
As mentioned above, Magical Molly (9) should be winning this and if she doesn’t, Panorama Wealth (10) is the only realistic threat. Play the skinny Tricks below and you should get a result.

9/ 4,6,10/ 1,4,6,10. $45 gets 500%

10/ 9/ 1,4,6,10. $5 gets 125%

Race 2

Refer to our first Best Value bet here. Put simply, Glenferrie Shuffle (4) has a great hope of winning, and should run second at very worst, but she’s likely to get a fair way out of her ground and that could make things tough at Beckley Park. The tricks below could pay very well if she gets rolled.

4/ 6,7/ 3,6,7,8,9. $32 gets 400%

6/ 4/ 3,7,8,9. $16 gets 400%
7/ 4/ 3,6,8,9. $2 gets 50%

THE GAME PLAN for Geelong – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

The early part of tonight’s meeting is riddled with short-priced favourites but the latter half of the program should provide a little bit of value and I’ve come up with a couple of Best Bets, some Value Bets where I’m taking on a couple of the shortie and a crack at the Quaddie where I have gone pretty wide in the last three legs hoping for a bit of value.

BEST BETS

Magical Molly (Race 1 no. 9) $1.90    $50 win

This mare comes off a C1 series where she was dominant in her heat success at Cranbourne before running a game second to Authorized in the final at Melton last Friday night and this looks right up her alley despite drawing the back row over the mile.

Quadentate (Race 4 no. 4) $1.60        $50 win

Smart 3Yo who comes off the Southern Cross series at Globe Derby where he was victorious in the final 19 days ago and with the lead his for sure here another triumph is on the cards.

BEST VALUE BETS

Thunder Fee (Race 2 no. 6) $6              $20 win

Glenferrie Shuffle is the one to beat here but I’m not totally convinced she is past the post and I think Thunder Fee has a chance of knocking her off.  Glenferrie Shuffle will drift back after the start and I can see our tip working forward before having a crack for the lead and if successful I think she will run one hell of a race.

Flaming Hero (Race 3 no. 2) $5                        $20 win

Similar to the previous race Guaranteed will be a short-priced favourite and after the issues he had last time around there is no way I want to be on him so once again I’m going for a little upset in the form of this promising type.  He is yet to be tested at this level but with the lead almost certain to be his I think he is worth a crack straight out.

Kisartis (Race 7 no. 1) $3.50                 $15 win x $45 place

This bloke has been a real improver of late and he put the writing on the wall for this with a slashing third to Gotalotofspeed at Ballarat from a poor draw.  He draws to lead or sit behind The Smirker from the pole and he looks a great each way bet. 

QUADDIE

4/ 1,2,4,5,8/ 1,2,4,7,9,10/ 1,2,6,8,9,10.  $100 gets you 55.55%

 

Good Form Preview - Thursday at Charlton

THE GAME PLAN for Charlton – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

This looks a competitive little meeting with no real standout bets but I’ve come up with a Best Value Bet, a couple of Money Races and a four-pronged attack on the Quaddie as the best way to get an earn out of the program.

BEST VALUE BET

Another Ayjay (Race 4 no. 5) $5          $15 win x $35 place

This guy was in very good form late last year prior to going for a break and he is sure to improve on what he did in a heat of this final on this circuit first up where he ran home well out wide behind Damascus Road.  The return to the front row will suit him down to the ground as he is lightning off the arm and whether Haydon Gray goes for an all-the-way victory on him or elects to take a trail I think he has a terrific each way chance.  

THE MONEY RACES

Race 7

The Good Times is definitely the one to beat here as she should get an easy lead but I do give Lombo Cloud Nine a chance of knocking her off so I’m going to take a few Trifectas based around that pair.  Below is how I’m spending $50.

5/ 8/ 1,9,11,12.  $24 gets you 600%

5/ 1,9,11,12/ 8.  $16 gets you 400%

8/ 5/ 1,9,11,12.  $10 gets you 250%

Race 8

This race has been knocked around a little by the scratchings but it still looks a great race to get involved in as Sukovia and Stonethachristian look much better than their rivals and are a great base for some Trifectas.   Below is how I’m spending $50.

3,9/ 3,9/ 4,6,8,10,11.  $35 gets you 350%

3,9/ 4,6,8,10,11/ 3,9.  $15 gets you 150%

QUADDIES x 4 $100 total outlay

5,7,10,11,12/ 2,5,6,9/ 5/ 5.  $25 gets you 125%

5,7,10,11,12/ 2,5,6,9/ 5/ 8.  $15 gets you 75%

5,7,10,11,12/ 2,5,6,9/ 4,6,7,10/ 5.  $40 gets you 50%

5,7,10,11,12/ 2,5,6,9/ 4,6,7,10/ 8.  $20 gets you 25%

Good Form Preview - Wednesday Night @ Bendigo

THE GAME PLAN for Bendigo – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

There are a number of short-priced favourites on tonight’s program and most, if not all of them should salute the judge, so value will be hard to come by, but I’ve come up with a Best Value Bet, a couple of Money Races where I'm playing a some straight trifectas and a four-pronged attack on the Quaddie as the best way to get an earn out of the meeting.

BEST VALUE BET

Paua Fella (Race 5 no. 8) $8      $15 win x $35 place

Messini will be a clear favourite for this race and he does have very good form lines, but I’m not totally sold on him and I think Paua Fella has a great chance of knocking him off at reasonable odds.  I know he only won a moderate race at Terang last start but he did it easily and he draws to sit right on the hammer of Messini from the trailing draw so watch for him to be coming at that bloke via the passing lane.

THE MONEY RACES

Race 6

Bespoke Artist and Zacharia draw to be leader/behind leader here and they really should dominate with Major Cruiser a clear third pick in my opinion so I’m going to play a couple of straight Trifectas around the trio.  Below is how I’m spending $50.

1/ 8/ 6.  $40 gets you 4000%

8/ 1/ 6.  $10 gets you 1000%

Race 8

Manellira has trialled well at Melton since finishing a game second to stable mate Mindarie Priddy in the Australian Pacing Gold Final at Albion Park back in May and she should be much too good for these with Quick Draft and Celebrity Lass rating well above the rest so I’m going to play a couple of straight Trifectas around the trio.  Below is how I’m spending $50.

3/ 8/ 4.  $35 gets you 3500%

3/ 4/ 8.  $15 gets you 1500%

QUADDIES x 5 $100 total outlay

12/ 1,8/ 1/ 1,3,6.  $12 gets you 200%

5,6,7,11,12/ 1,8/ 1/ 1,3,6.  $38 gets you 126.66%

5,6,7,11,12/ 1,8/ 8/ 1,3,6.  $20 gets you 66.66%

5,6,7,11,12/ 3,5/ 1/ 1,3,6.  $20 gets you 66.66%

5,6,7,11,12/ 3,5/ 8/ 1,3,6.  $10 gets you 33.33%

BLACK BOOKER/STAR TRIALLER

United Legacy (Race 1 no. 10) $2.40

This guy ran the race of his life at Shepparton last start in a heat of the Vicbred Super Series where he missed the start, tacked onto the bulk of the field with a lap to travel and had the audacity to run third to Rustys Reject.  He has since won a trial on this circuit in impressive fashion and this looks a great race for him to bust his maiden.

The Game Plan for Bendigo – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Bets/All-Up

Bespoke Artist (Race 6 no. 1) $1.80
Manellira (Race 8 no. 3) $1.60

The Money Races

Race 5
1,8/ 1,8/ 3,5,6. $24 gets 400%
1,8,/ 1,8/ 4,9. $4 gets 100%
1,8/ 3,5,6/ 1,8. $16 gets 266.67%
3,5,6/ 1,8,/ 1,8. $6 gets 100%

Race 6

1/ 8/ 3,6. $20 gets 1000%
1/ 8/ 4,5,9,11. $20 gets 500%
8/ 1/ 3,6. $5 gets 250%
8/ 1/ 4,5,9,11. $5 gets 125%

Bets Value

Endorsement (Race 4 no. 7) $7
Paua Fella (Race 5 no. 8) $8
Bettor Move (Race 7 no. 1) $7

Quaddies (x4)

6,7,9,10,12/ 1,8/ 1/ 1,3,5,6. $40 gets 100%
6,7,9,10,12/ 3,5,6/ 1/ 1,3,5,6. $40 gets 66.67%
6,7,9,10,12/ 1,8/ 8/ 1,3,5,6. $10 gets 25%
6,7,9,10,12/ 3,5,6/ 8/ 1,3,5,6. $10 gets 16.67%

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Yarra Valley

The Game Plan for Yarra Valley – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

There are only seven races @ Victoria’s most picturesque track today but there’s plenty of quality on show and if we target the opening three races & have a good crack at the Quad I’ll be shocked if we’re not in front ahead of tonight’s Bendigo card.

Best Bet

Kazaree (Race 1 no. 2) $1.90
Put simply, today’s opening race looks put on for this bloke who ran the race of his life behind Baccarat at this track a fortnight back and has been knocking on the door at all three runs for Ross Sugars this preparation. I’m happy to take $1.60 and if he opens any longer than that then have a decent crack.

The Money Races

Race 1
As mentioned, Kazaree (2) looks close to a good thing here while Cobargo Jack (8) appears equally likely to finish second or third at very worst. Basing my wagers around that philosophy, I’ll be taking the below combinations for an outlay of $50.

2/ 8/ 1. $17 gets 1700%

2/ 8/ 3,4,6,9. $20 gets 500%
2/ 1/ 8. $5 gets 600%
2/ 3,4,6,9/ 8. $8 gets 200%

Race 2

This looks a freakishly good betting race where Tezz Khora (1) should lead, Blazing Orion (8) should sit on his back and they should run one-two with relative ease. I’ve played skinny for third to try & maximise our profit from the race but you can play a little wider if you just want the result.

1/ 8/ 2,4,9,12. $30 gets 750%

8/ 1/ 2,4,9,12. $20 gets 500%

Race 3

Kiwi record holder Border Control (2) should really win this but the matter has been confused slightly by one of Victoria’s fastest starters, Ginger Bliss (1), drawing the pole. Regardless of what happens early I’m near enough to certain that they’ll run one-two and if Benoah (8) can hunt up & hold a handy peg-line spot he’s a great chance of running third or fourth and putting genuine value into the multiples outlined below.

2/ 1/ 8/ Field. $20 gets 285.71%

2/ 1/ Field/ 8. $15 gets 214.29%
1/ 2/ 8/ Field. $10 gets 142.86%
1/ 2/ Field/ 8. $5 gets 71.43%

Quaddies (x3)

1,2,5,6,8/ 2,8/ 1,2,6/ 5. $50 gets 166.67%
1,2,5,6,8/ 2,8/ 1,2,6/ 3. $30 gets 100%
1,2,5,6,8/ 2,8/ 1,2,6/ 6. $20 gets 66.67%

Star Trialler (Racing Today)

Ginger Bliss (Race 3 no. 1) $2.80
This bloke is a brilliant beginner and a very smart horse overall that finished off a recent Kilmore trial win in 56.7 seconds to beat the handy Major Steppe by no less than 60m. He takes on an equine freak today in Border Control (2) but must be conceded a chance from the ideal draw.

Good Form Preview - Tuesday night @ Kilmore

The Game Plan for Kilmore – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

There are three Vicbred Super Series heats tonight but it is still a very tricky card for punting. The first of those VSS heats, for the four-year-old trotting mares looks by far the best betting race of the day ahead of the night's final event so we will focus on those couple of Money Races along w/ one Best Value, one Best Roughies and some Quaddies as per usual.

The Money Races

Race 4
I don’t think there’s much between Waikare Patricia (2), Gatesys Girl (3) & Sundons Promise (7) in terms of talent and all are outstanding mares in their own right but Waikare Patricia (2) is probably the best of them & tonight she gets the best draw as well, so expect her to win or come second at very worst. If all horse stay in gait the three big guns will comprise the Trifecta but it’s worth remembering that these are trotters and given Gatesys Girl (3) & Sundons Promise (7) can both make mistakes I’ll be taking a couple of savers with plenty to finish third if things don’t go to plan.

2/ 3,7/ 3,7. $50 gets 2500%

3,7/ 2/ 3,7. $20 gets 1000%
2/ 3,7/ 5,6,8,9,10. $20 gets 200%
3,7/ 2/ 5,6,8,9,10. $10 gets 100%

Race 8

This field has been decimated by scratchings but they should only serve to ensure that Dusty Smiles (2) & Statelyness (1) run one-two here  w/ the former horse likely to jag the prize. It is more than likely that Dance With Mia (4) will lob three back the poles and run third, or fourth at very worst, so play your First 4’s accordingly.

2/ 1/ 4/ 5,7. $25 gets 1250%

2/ 1/ 5,7/ 4. $10 gets 500%
1/ 2/ 4/ 5,7. $10 gets 500%
1/ 2/ 5,7/ 4. $5 gets 250%

Best Value

Thinking Of You (Race 5 no. 2) $4 ($30 Win)
This is an unusual race but one thing we can almost be assure of is that the above filly will roll to the front and make it a genuine staying test from there on in. She simply pulled way too hard in the breeze outside Im Smouldering last time and with the lack of class and depth in this race she should get most of these off the bit and chasing a fair way out from home so I give her a great chance of leading all the way at pretty handy odds.

Best Roughie

Discrimination (Race 7 no. 5) $31 ($10 Each Way)
This bloke has stacks of ability and was incredibly stiff not to win last start when working overtime in the run and only going under late to subsequent Vicbred Super Series heat winner Classic Bliss at Yarra Valley. He won’t find the lead first here but it would not shock me to see Blazeaway Macray (3) hand up to him if Lance Justice puts the foot down early so at the $31 quote he looks a super Each Way play.

Quaddies

2/ 2,5,9/ 9/ 3,5,8,9,10,11,12. $58 gets 276.19%
3,7/ 2,5,9/ 9/ 3,5,8,9,10,11,12. $42 gets 100%

THE GAME PLAN for Kilmore – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

There are a stack of short-priced favourites on tonight’s program and most, if not all of them should salute the judge so value will be hard to come by, but I’ve come up with a couple of Money Races and a four-pronged attack on the Quaddie as the best way to get an earn out of the meeting.

THE MONEY RACES

Race 5

Gypsy Babe was most unlucky last start in a heat of the Vicbred at Shepparton first up from a spell and I think she will make amends tonight, but I do concede chances to Thinking Of You and Earth Angel so I’m going to base a couple of Trifectas around that trio, hopefully covering all bases.   Below is how I’m spending $50.

5/ 2,9/ 1,2,4,6,8,9,12.  $30 gets you 250%

2,9/ 5/ 1,2,4,6,8,9,12.  $20 gets you 166.66%

Race 6

Getya Wings Out is a top class filly who comes off the Southern Cross series in South Australia where she took out both heat and final at Globe Derby in fine style and I think she will be too good for this lot with Lierre Noir a clear second pick so I’m going to base some Trifectas around that pair.  Below is how I’m spending $50.

9/ 10/ 2,5,6,8,12.  $25 gets you 500%

9/ 2,5,6,8,12/ 10.  $25 gets you 500%

QUADDIES x 2 $100 total outlay

2/ 2,5,9/ 9/ 3.  $40 gets you 1333.33%

2/ 2,5,9/ 9/ 8,9,10,11,12.  $60 gets you 400%