Good Form Preview - ID Heat & Much, Much More

The Game Plans for ID Heat Night @ Melton

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Bets

Yankee Rockstar (Race 2 no. 6) $1.70 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now 

Yet another smart youngster for Emma Stewart who is unbeaten in two runs to date, the latest of those on this circuit two week ago when running by Adam Cartwright in the Premiere and with the lead likely to be his tonight he should continue on his winning way.

Restrepo (Race 4 no. 2) $1.90 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

Gun 4YO who comes off a record-breaking triumph in the Central Victorian Pacing Championship at Charlton a month back and although this is big step up in grade for him tonight he does have the barrier draw advantage over main rival Smolda, looks like getting the lead and he should be too slick for them thereafter.

Guaranteed (Race 5 no. 10) $1.70 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

Star colt who was unlucky not to win the Victoria Derby at his latest run two weeks back when second to Ohoka Punter and although he will have to earn it tonight from the back row draw I think Chris Alford will inject him into the contest early, may even work to the lead and it will be shut the gate if that scenario plays out.

  

Best Roughie

Miss Moonlite (Race 3 no. 8) $21/$2.20 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

This is a strong race for her to contest first up from a break but she has looked sharp in two trial victories on this circuit recently and looks like getting the gun run behind likely leader Pembrook Caesar so I think she represents great value each way on a 1 x 3 basis.

Quaddie

2,11/ 10/ 1,4,7/ 1,2,3,6,7,12.  $100 gets you 277.77%

Big6

1,7,8,9/ 2,11/ 10/ 1,4,7/ 1,2,3,6,7,12/ 6.  $100 gets you 69.44%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

All Up

Yankee Rockstar (Race 2 no. 6) $1.70 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

This guy has a boom on him the size of Texas and given he has comfortably beaten chief rival Adam Cartwright (9) both times they’ve met and Presidential Secret (2) would need to be one right out of the box to beat either, then $1.70 looks amazing value to me.

I Can Doosit (Race 8 no. 6) $1.55 TAB Fixed Odds – Clickhere to bet on this horse now

The simple fact here is that My Escapee, who like this guy is trained by Mark Purdon, simply dominated I Didn’t Do It last time they me t and this bloke would crush My Escapee if they were racing at home. I Can Doosit has had his issues of late but Purdon is a genius and I’m confident he’d only need to be half right for a very easy victory in this.

That almost no-risk combo is worth $2.64 for every $1 invested. Unbelievable but true.

Best Value

Rodrigo (Race 7 no. 6) $7.50 TAB Fixed Odds & Veranjee (Race 7 no. 7) $10 Tab Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on these horses now 

In an extremely open race, Rodrigo (6), that has been low flying all campaign and arrives here off a luckless second in the Terang Pacing Cup, and Veranjee (7) who looked back to his multiple Country Cup-winning form last start, both seem amazing value at $11. I marked both at about half that quote so if you’re getting double figures tonight I suggest you get involved on an Each Way basis.

Best Roughies

Cyamach (Race 5 no. 9) $31/$4.42 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

This guy came to Australia with massive wraps on him and was very unlucky in both heat and final of the Victoria Derby. He may not be in the same league as Guaranteed but he’s certainly up there with the rest and so long as nothing untoward has happened since he’s been in Australian the $5+ for the place here seems extraordinary odds indeed.

Savesomtimetodream (Race 6 no. 6) $51/$8.27 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

Plenty will scoff at the suggestion, but I still think this bloke has some chance of qualifying for the Inter Dominion Final. What he will need is for Smoken Up or someone else to ensure a quickly run affair and perhaps Glen Craven to hold the top for a fair while with Keayang Cullen (1) but if a couple of things fall into place he has the turn of foot to sneak a placing here and at $6.81 the place he’s worth a little nibble if things go right tonight.

Quaddies (x2)

1,2,11/ 10/ 1,4,7/ 1,2,3,6,7,12. $81 gets 150%.

1,2,11/ 5,8,9/ 1,4,7/ 1,2,3,6,7,12. $19 gets 11.73%.

Bill Hutchison (@Hutchysays)

Best Bet

Pembrook Caesar (Race 3 no. 1) $1.60 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

Very smart mare even better suited this week over the sprint trip than she was last time out when defeating a very similar field in the Angelique Club Cup. Don't leave likely trailer Miss Moonlite (8) out of any multipl bets in this race either.

Best Value

Katmandonny (Race 1 no. 2) $6

This bloke is a bright prospect who will use this race as a stepping stone to bigger and better things. Tendaho (9) is also more than handy but this bloke looks the better betting proposition from their relative draws.

Metro Mike (Race 4 no. 1) $8 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

This is the clash of the titans between Restrepo (2) and Smolda (11) but don't underestimate this guy, particularly if the favourites lock up in a battle from the top end.

Bitobliss (Race 6 no. 7) $4.20 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

I'd much rather be on thsi bloke than Caribbean Blaster (4) at their relative prices. Punters shouldn't forget that he sat outside CB and put him to the sword in last year's Kilmore Cup and a repeat performance would see him too good once more.

Hall Of Famer (Race 7 no. 2) $4.20 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

Very keen here on the strength of this guy's death seat second after a brutal trip last week. He's now at his peak and should take some catching.

Quaddie

1,2,11/ 1,5,8,10/ 4,7/ 1,2,3,6,12. $60 gets 50%.

Good Form Preview - Dirty Dozen @ Tabcorp Park

THE GAME PLANS for Melton 

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Value Bets

Itscottobegood (Race 1 no. 1) $5

Tried hard when second to Leighmont in his heat of tonight’s final at Kilmore last Sunday where he chased hard from the rear and that run will do him the world of good as it was his first back from a break for new trainer Steve Cleave.  He comes up with the perfect draw this time around, will either lead or sit behind Leighmont and I think he has a terrific each way chance.

Wartime Sweetheart (Race 7 no. 9) $7

The scratchings of The Phantom and In Monaco has really changed the complexion of this race and it has definitely worked in the favour of this bloke as he draws to follow out speedy beginner Because I Can, who looks like holding the lead tonight, which will give him the gun run.  His form on paper doesn’t read too flash but he will appreciate the soft trip and watch for him to be coming at them via the passing lane in the stretch. 

Best Roughie

Another Elsu (Race 1 no. 8) $15

This guy is no star and doesn’t win out of turn but he has been thereabouts of late and his heat effort at Kilmore behind Hellfire Angel when coming from well back was commendable.  He draws to either trail the leader or be three back the pegs and at reasonable odds I think he is in with an upset chance.

Best Trifectas

Looks like a tricky night for those wanting to play the multiples with confidence but I’ve come up with Races 6,8, and 11 as the best ones to attack and I’m going to spend $300 on the below trifectas.

Race 6

6/ 9/ 1,2,7,8,10,11,12.  $56 gets you 800%

6/ 1,2,7,8,10,11,12/ 9.  $28 gets you 400%

8,9/ 6/ 1,2,7,8,9,10,11,12.  $16 gets you 114.28%

Race 8

6/ 3,4/ 3,4.  $40 gets you 2000%

6/ 3,4/ 1,2,5.  $40 gets you 666.66%

3,4/ 6/ 1,2,3,4,5.  $20 gets you 250%

Race 11

1/ 6/ 2,3,4,5.  $80 gets you 2000%

1/ 3,4/ 6.  $20 gets you 1000%

Quaddies x2 $100 Outlay

1,4,5,9/ 1,2,3,6,8,10,11,12,15/ 6/ 1,7,9,10,11,13.  $60 gets you 27.77%

1,4,5,9/ 1,2,3,6,8,10,11,12,15/ 8,9/ 1,7,9,10,11,13.  $40 gets you 9.25%

Jason Bonnington

Best Bet

Keeper of the Fire (Race 9 no. 5) $2.80
This bloke has had a new lease on life since joining Shaun Kittel and while there’s a couple of new Claimers to contend with here this field isn’t a heap stronger than the one he humbled at Kilmore last start. Expect him to stay out of the early speed burn and then dominate his rivals from the breeze tonight.

Bets Quinella

Lierre Noir (Race 11 no. 1 & Lavra Florence (Race 11 no. 6)
This could probably be an exacta with Lierre Noir (1) to beat Lavra Florence (6) but with the polemarker likely to start very short now Lady Patti is out, you may get better value from the Quinella. Simply put, these two are WAY better than their rivals and while this won’t pay flash, the more you put on, the more you win!

Best Value

Just Live Life (Race 3 no. 2) $7
I fully concede that All I Can Be (6) is the one to beat here but this guy has always been a very good horse and he looks like finally making the next step at this rate. That being said, he is great value at $7 in a C4 to C5 affair this evening.

Quaddies (x2)
1,2,3,4,5,9/ 1,2,6,8,15/ 6/ 1,9,10,13. $60 gets 50%.
1,2,3,4,5,9/ 1,2,6,8,15/ 8,9/ 1,9,10,13. $40 gets 16.67%.


 

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night at Bendigo

THE GAME PLAN for Bendigo – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Bets

Onetolove (Race 2 no. 7) $1.70

Handy filly who comes off a slashing third to Magic Moment Lombo at Shepparton just over two weeks ago where she ran home strongly from the rear in slick sectionals.  She looks to have a class edge on her rivals tonight and if she gets the right run in transit from the car park draw she should be a touch too good.

Teo Enteo (Race 7 no. 3) $1.40

This guy has been in fine form this season, winning 4 of his 8 outings and he comes off a game second to the rising star Im Corzin Terror at Shepparton a month ago where he trailed that bloke throughout and tried hard in a 27.1 final quarter.  He had a trial hit out on that circuit last week to keep him ticking over and he should beat these with ordinary luck.

Best Quinella

Race 4

Dual Agent Tabman and Classy Western (approximate return: $2)

This pair look much better than their opposition with the former always competitive in whatever he contests and the latter having trialled stylishly at Melton 10 days ago for his first up run tonight.  Dual Agent Tabman looks like working to the lead with Classy Western coming at him late and I’d be surprised if they don’t snare the top two spots.

All Up

For those feeling a little more daring you can couple the above bets into an all up and your return will be around $4.50 for every $1 you invest.  I’m going to play that way for $100 and also back them all individually.  Happy punting!

Quaddies x2 $100 Outlay

4,9/ 1,2,3,7,8,11/ 1,3,4,6/ 3.  $60 gets you 125%

4,9/ 1,2,3,7,8,11/ 1,3,4,6/ 4,5,8.  $40 gets you 27.77%

STAR TRIALLER

Classy Western (Race 4 no. 9) $2.50

More than handy 4YO who resumes from a break tonight off the back of a solid Melton trial success 10 days ago where he finished off in 27.8 and accounted for the quality mare Illawong Sister Styx and Magical Telf so he looks primed for a big run first up.

Good Form Preview - Thursday at Cranbourne

THE GAME PLAN for Cranbourne – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Bets

Ymbro Awesome (Race 6 no. 12) $2.50

This guy is yet to win in 5 runs this time in but there is no doubt that today’s race is by far the easiest he will contest this season and he really should be too good for this lot even though he will have to earn it from where he is drawn.

Scruffy Major (Race 7 no. 3) $3.20

Talented type who was much too good for a moderate lot here last week and he will find this much harder but he draws to either lead or sit just off the speed from his handy gate and I think he will be a touch too slick for his rivals over the concluding stages.

Best Trifectas

As mentioned above I’m keen on Ymbro Awesome and Scruffy Major to win their respective races and I think they look a great base for some trifectas as well so below is how I’m going to play with $100 spent on each race for a total of $200.

Race 6

12/ 6/ 4,5,7,9,10,11.  $40 gets you 666.66%

12/ 4,5,7,9,10,11/ 6.  $40 gets you 666.66%

6/ 12/ 4,5,7,9,10,11.  $20 gets you 333.33%

Race 7

3/ 1,5/ 1,5,8,9.  $60 gets you 1000%

1,5/ 3/ 1,5,8,9.  $40 gets you 666.66%

Quaddies x4 $100 Outlay

4,8,11/ 1,3,4,5,8,11/ 12/ 3.  $40 gets you 222.22%

4,8,11/ 1,3,4,5,8,11/ 12/ 1,5.  $40 gets you 111.11%

4,8,11/ 1,3,4,5,8,11/ 6/ 3.  $10 gets you 55.55%

4,8,11/ 1,3,4,5,8,11/ 6/ 1,5.  $10 gets you 27.77%

STAR TRIALLERS

Muscle Stride (Race 4 no. 8) $3.50

Jayne Davies-trained son of Grinfromeartoear who is on debut tonight and he appears to have his share of ability going by his trial efforts on this track last month, one when victorious over winner since Artique and the another when second to star filly Musical Delight.  The draw isn’t ideal but with the right luck in running expect this guy to be more than competitive first up.

BLACK BOOKERS – Horsham Yesterday

Gollahman

Was slow to begin and got back in the run but once he wound up in the straight he really hit the line hard to finish a solid second to the handy Hayes And Kydd.  He is still learning what this caper is all about but has his share of talent and will be breaking his maiden status very soon.

Gosh Heza Rebel

I’ll admit I’m talking through my kick here, as I have been on him his past four runs, but this bloke has been most unlucky the past month or so and again yesterday when fourth to Lifes A Bonus after never really getting a proper crack at them in the stretch.  Surely he will get the right luck in running shortly in a suitable race and will be mighty hard to beat when he does.

Good Form Preview + Weekend Sectionals

The Game Plans for Geelong
 
Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Bets

I’m pretty excited about tonight’s card, as it looks a sensational opportunity for us to build a bank for the Good Form Punters Challenge @ Melton on Saturday night or just to have a crack at the magnificent racing right around Australasia this weekend.
Below are my four Bets Bets on the card. I suggest you take a formula three and hope that all four horses get the prize.

Minti Choice (Race 3 no. 7) $1.90
This guy isn’t overly big but what he lacks in size, he more than makes up for in courage, particularly this campaign. A go-forward horse at almost all costs, he’ll lead or breeze here and it will take a big performance form one of his rivals to see him get rolled.

Blazeaway Macray (Race 4 no. 1) $1.50
She is a very talented mare who arguably ran the race of her career first up at Ballarat when forced to park out through savage mid-race sectionals and still hanging on for second to Lombo Sleek Streak. She’s very likely to lead from the ace alley here and unless something extraordinary happens she should hold her rivals at bay in the run to the line.

La Pucelle (Race 5 no. 9) $2.70
It’s probably fair to say this hugely talented mare wasn’t quite at her best last start but the run was still good and her prior form reads very well for a race of this nature. Also in her favour is the likelihood of a frenetic early tempo with several horses off the front line desperate to go forward at the start. She should sit back, have one crack at them and be a shade too good.

Mach Robyn (Race 6 no. 3) $2
There is a little question mark over this mare as she’s first up from an eight month break but she’s got a fir bit of class on the field she faces here and whether she leads or breezes I’d be surprised if she can’t knock this lot over tonight.

Money Races

Race 1
This looks a super betting race to kick off the night as there are three horses who look miles better than their rivals and two who should fight out the prize. See below for my four Trifecta combinations.

9,10/ 6,9,10/ 6,9,10. $60 gets 1500%.
6/ 9,10/ 9,10. $6 gets 300%
9,10/ 6,9,10/ 2,7. $32 gets 400%.
6/ 9,10/ 2,7. $2 gets 50%.

Race 3
This is another great betting race where Minti Choice (7) holds the key as he really should win and should certainly finish second at worst. Outside him there are also limited chances so get involved with the Trifectas below at some pretty high percentages.

7/ 3,6/ 2,3,6. $80 gets 2000%.
7/ 2/ 3,6. $10 gets 500%.
7/ 3,6/ 9. $10 gets 500%.

Race 4
I’m super bullish about Blazeaway Macray (1) leading from pillar to post in this and if Cute Art (8) lobs her back as expected then she’s almost as good a thing to finish second. Pass It To Billy (5) also looks the clear third pick so have decent go at the straight Trifecta & have plenty of savers all around those numbers.

1/ 8/ 5. $30 gets 3000%.
1/ 8/ 3,9. $30 gets 1500%.
1/ 5/ 8. $10 gets 1000%.
1/ 3,9/ 8. $10 gets 500%.
8/ 1/ 5. $10 gets 1000%.
8/ 1/ 3,9. $10 gets 500%.

Race 6
If the real Mach Robyn (3) turns up here, she will just win. If the everyday Sporty Mac (2) turns up, he’ll run a place. That’s’ the philosophy and these are the Trifectas.

3/ 2/ 6,10. $60 gets 3000%.
3/ 2/ 8,9. $15 gets 750%.
3/ 6,10/ 2. $20 gets 1000%.
3/ 8,9/ 2. $5 gets 250%.

Quaddies (x4)

1/ 3,6,9/ 3/ 2,3,6,7,9. $60 gets 400%.
8/ 3,6,9/ 2/ 2,3,6,7,9. $15 gets 100%.
1/ 3,6,9/ 2/ 2,3,6,7,9. $20 gets 133.33%.
8/ 3,6,9/ 2/ 2,3,6,7,9. $5 gets 33.33%.

Bill Hutchison (@Hutchysays)

Best Bet

Blazeaway Macray (Race 4 no. 1) $1.50
I don’t usually tip shorties but this mare looks the best of good things. A Breeders Crown Consolation winner before going for a spell, she showed new fortitude when sitting in the breeze and narrowly beaten in a hot race first-up at Ballarat. Cute Art (8) is worth coupling with her in exotics as she’ll get the gun run in behind this favourite.

Best Value

Dam Lucky (Race 3 no. 6) $4.00
I’ve been impressed with this guy’s improvement in recent times. He led all the way at Kilmore then came from miles back when fourth to Minti Choice (7) last week. He draws better than that horse this time around and can reverse the decision.

Play of the Day – Race 3

2,3,6,7/ 2,3,4,6,7,9/ 2,3,4,6,7,9. $80 gets 100%.

Quaddie

1,8/ 3,4,9/ 2,3,6/ 1,2,3,6,8,9. $100 gets 92.59%.