Good Form Friday - Dirty Dozen @ Tabcorp Park

THE GAME PLAN for Melton 

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Value Bets

Paintball (Race 1 no. 11) $3.20

I’ve been taken by both of her runs back from a break and although she draws the back row tonight I think that will work in her favour as there will be some pace on early and I can see her charging home off some cover late.

Matty Chrimes (Race 7 no. 7) $7

This is a race of some depth but I think this guy has a terrific each way chance as I can see him rolling forward, getting to the death without too much hassle and with a lack of any real pace in the race he should be hard to get past.

The Money Races

Race 2

I’m not telling you anything you probably don’t already know here but Fearless Leader and Bettor Believe It look miles better than their rivals and should run 1,2 so I’m loading up on the exotics with that pair.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

Quinella: 1,5.  $40

Trifecta: 1,5/ 1,5/ 4,8,9.  $30 gets you 500%

First Four: 1,5/ 1,5/ 4,8,9/ 2,4,6,8,9,10.  $30 gets you 100%  

Race 3

Similar to the previous race Nats Survival and Lively Princess appear to have the wood on their rivals and should finish 1,2 so I’m going to attack the exotics with that pair.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

Quinella: 1,2.  $40

Trifecta: 1,2/ 1,2/ 3,4,5,6,7,9.  $30 gets you 250%

First Four: 1,2/ 1,2/ 3,4,5,6,7,9/ 3,4,5,6,7,9.  $30 gets you 50%

Race 6

Regal Knight should be too good for these with Machin Out a clear second pick and almost guaranteed to fill the exacta so I’m going to base some exotics around that pair.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

Exacta: 4/ 2.  $40

Trifecta: 4/ 2/ 1,3,8.  $30 gets you 1500%

First Four: 4/ 2/ 1,3,8/ 1,3,7,8,10,11.  $30 gets you 200%

Quaddies (x2) $100 Outlay

5,13/ 7/ 4/ 2,6,7,9,10,11.  $50 gets you 416.66%

5,13/ 1,2,6/ 4/ 2,6,7,9,10,11.  $50 gets you 138.88%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value

Lets Slash An Burn (Race 7 no.9) $9

It wasn’t that long ago that this guy split Smoken Up and Decorated Jasper in the VHRSC Classic and while this field is more than handy, there does look to be a heap of early speed engaged and if Emmett Brosnan can smoke the pipe until the dust settles then attempt to outstay his rivals then the $9 quoted in today’s herald Sun looks very juicy indeed. Back him Each Way.

Best Roughies

Sonofanearl (Race 4 no. 4) $17

This is a simple case of the Speed Map telling us the story. There are no guarantees in Stand Start trotting affairs but this bloke is a bullet from the strands on his day and barring accidents should find the front and have options once he does. He was coming off a six week break when close up in a similar race to this last week and look seven better placed on handicaps tonight. Play Each Way again.

Vapar Raine (Race 6 no. 1) $17

This mare is another Speed Map special. Put simply, she is drawn beautifully to trail likely leader Machin Out and given Regal Knight may have to apply some pressure if he’s to win the race, in behind the speed where she will lob looks the ideal place to be. She is third up from a spell as well and has plenty of talent on her day so back her Each Way at the very plump quote.

Money Races

Race 1

I just can’t help thinking that at their best Dual Agent Tabman (10) & Paintball (11) are a class above their rivals and should be fighting this out. With ordinary luck in running they should finish one-two but their draws are not kind so we’ll play a saver if things don’t go to plan.

10,11/ 10,11/ 8,12. $60 gets 1500%.

10,11/ 8,12/ 10,11. $20 gets 500%.

10,11/ 10,11/ 3,4,5,6,7. $20 gets 200%.

Race 2

It’s a similar case here as Bettor Believe It (1) & Fearless Leader (5) should outclass their rivals if everything goes to plan. Ideally. We’d love to see them leader/behind leader in transit but it’s more likely they’ll be leading and breezing. Either way they should also run one-two but we’ll have a one-three saver to cover our backside.

1,5/ 1,5/ 4,6,9,11,13. $75 gets 750%.

1,5/ 4,6,9,11,13/ 1,5. $25 gets 250%.

Quaddies (x3)

4,5,12,13/ 7/ 4/ 2,4,6,7,9,11. $36 gets 150%.

4,5,12,13/ 7/ 1,2,8/ 2,4,6,7,9,11. $36 gets 50%.

4,5,12,13/ 2,6,8,10/ 4/ 2,4,6,7,9,11. $28 gets 29.17%.

Good Form Preview - Nyah @ Swan Hill

THE GAME PLAN for Nyah @ Swan Hill – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

The Money Races

Race 1

Rogers Passion and Korobeit Angel look much better than their opposition and should run 1,2 and I think there are limited place chances so I’m taking the below trifecta for $100 total spend.

1,2/ 1,2/ 6,8,9,10,11.  $100 gets you 1000%

Race 4

This isn’t an easy race by any stretch of the imagination but the way Patrique went last time at Bendigo suggests to me that he should go close in this so I’m going to play some trifectas around him for $100 total spend.

4/ 5,6,9,10,12/ 5,6,9,10,12.  $50 gets you 250%

5,6,9,10,12/ 4/ 5,6,9,10,12.  $25 gets you 125%

5,6,9,10,12/ 5,6,9,10,12/ 4.  $25 gets you 125%

Race 5

Similar to the previous race this is an open affair but Tapper Torney looks the one to beat in my opinion and I’d be surprised if he missed the top two so I’m playing the below trifectas with him for $100 total spend.

6/ 2,3,8,10/ 1,2,3,4,7,8,9,10.  $70 gets you 241.37%

2,8,10/ 6/ 1,2,3,4,7,8,9,10.  $30 gets you 142.85%

Race 7

The scratching of Art Shadow has opened this race up a bit but I think Pocket Legend is the hardest to beat, as he will either lead or at worst end up behind the speed so I’m basing my trifectas around him for $100 total spend.

3/ 5,6,8,9/ 5,6,8,9.  $70 gets you 583.33%

5,6,9/ 3/ 5,6,8,9.  $30 gets you 333.33%

Quaddie

4,5,6,9,10,12/ 2,6,8,10/ 3,10,12/ 3,5,6,9.  $100 gets you 34.72%

STAR TRIALLER

Tapper Torney (Race 5 no. 6) $3.70

Gets in well with the claim for Zac Phillips and this guy has trialled well on this circuit since winning in claiming grade at Ballarat just over three weeks ago where he parked out and got the better of Lota Vision (Melton winner since) in the shadows of the post.  He will race up on the pace once more and prove hard to get past in an open contest.

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Kilmore

THE GAME PLAN for Kilmore – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Roughie

Juan Amigo (Race 5 no. 2) $15

This guy hasn’t been disgraced at his past two behind quality types Eljulio and La Pucelle from behind the mobile and he gets back to his more favoured standing start today.  He ran a solid second to Lights And Music in one of these races at Maryborough three back where he began well, trailed the leader and battled on well so if he can jump to the front or get a cheap run on the pegs he can be dangerous at good odds.

The Money Races

Race 1

Truman is the one to beat here with Soho Eastwood and Christian Sloy his only dangers so I’m going to play around with that trio in some trifectas for $100 total spend.

4/ 3,6/ 3,6.  $60 gets you 3000%

4/ 3,6/ 1,2.  $20 gets you 500%

3,6/ 4/ 3,6.  $10 gets you 500%

3,6/ 4/ 1,2.  $10 gets you 250%

Race 4

Mister Sheedy is clearly the one to beat with Shifting Sand his main and only threat so I’m going to play some trifectas around the pair for $100 total spend.

7/ 4/ 1,2,5.  $45 gets you 1500%

7/ 1,2,5/ 4.  $40 gets you 133.33%

4/ 7/ 1,2,5.  $15 gets you 500%

Race 6

Im Cool and Im Jensen look to have the wood on their rivals and are a big chance of running 1,2 with Pirates Wealth likely to be three-back the pegs and in with a value chance of filling third spot so I’m going to take a cheap trifecta with them and another one with the field to fill third for a $100 total spend.

1,2/ 1,2/ 9.  $10 gets you 500%

1,2/ 1,2/ Field.  $90 gets you 500%

Race 7

Our Missionary Man will be much too good for this lot with Mr McArdle the one to anchor some trifectas around as he should do enough from the pole to keep the early lead before more than likely handing up to Our Missionary Man.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

6/ 1/ 2,3,4,8,9,10.  $70 gets you 1166.66%

6/ 2,3,4,10/ 1.  $30 gets you 750%

Quaddie (x2) $100 Outlay

7/ 2,5,7,8,9,11/ 1,2/ 6.  $70 gets you 583.33%

4/ 2,5,7,8,9,11/ 1,2/ 6.  $30 gets you 250%

Good Form Preview - 100 Years @ Bray Raceway

The Game Plans for Ballarat

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Tonight’s Centenary meeting at Bray Raceway is a little tricky but I feel sure that there are four outstanding bets which should yield at least three winners. As a result I’m advising punters to take a formula three and cross their fingers that all four horses get the prize. Here they are.

Best Bets

Our Femme Fatale (Race 1 no. 4) $1.20
This filly will be extremely short but she has lengths on her rivals for class, trialled brilliantly and will at least kick our night off with success.

It Is Billy (Race 5 no. 2) $2.60
The only question mark with this guy is that he isn’t brilliant off the arm - having said that, if he can settle handy and peel three wide down the back I’d be surprised if they hold him out late

Easy Lightning (Race 6 no. 7) $2.20
This just looks his race. A speedy beginner he may have drawn wide but has mostly hand-up material drawn inside and even if he breezes I think he’ll be a shade too good.

Metro Mike (Race 7 no. 1) $2.20
Another one who’s only concern is getting buried back in the field with the speed drawn outside him. Even if he does get shuffled back a little I still think with the likely pressure here his superior late speed will prove the difference tonight.

I advise punters to play safe but if you want to have a little crack at the all-up it should pay between $12 & $16 per $1 investment.

The Money Races

Race 1
As previously mentioned, Our Femme Fatale (4) has this race on toast and to be honest there’s very few horses who can even run a drum, so play skinny and attack like this.
4/ 1,5,9/ 1,2,5,9. $90 gets 1000%.

Race 5
Once again, I’ve already outlined my thoughts that It Is Billy (2) should win here with ordinary luck but just in case everything goes pair shaped and he runs second I’m having a saver too.
2/ 1,4,5,6/ 1,4,5,6/ 1,4,5,6,8,9. $48 gets 100%.
1,4,5,6/ 2/ 1,4,5,6/ 1,4,5,6,8,9. $12 gets 25%.

Race 6
Yet another race where I’m looking to play around my clear top tip, which in this case is Easy Lightning (7).  He looks close to a moral and its pretty skinny after that as well.
7/ 4,5,6,12/ 4,5,6,12. $60 gets 500%.
7/ 4,5,6,12/ 8,9,11. $15 gets 125%.

Race 7
Metro Mike (1) is the one to beat but there are three legitimate dangers so have a crack at the following First 4’s and hope for a little slice of value.
1/ 3,4,7/ 3,4,7/ 3,4,5,7,8. $72 gets 400%.
3,4,7/ 1/ 3,4,7/ 3,4,5,7,8. $28 gets 155.56%.

Bill Hutchison (@Hutchysays)

Best Bet

Easy Lightning (Race 6 no. 7) $2.20
He is a duel 3YO winner who grades extremely well at CO level and looks to have these covered.

Best Value

Frameworks Pride (Race 2 no. 1) $4
Ran a bold race in front at Geelong when beaten on the line last week. He’ll be a lot fitter for that and in a moderate field he’ll be mighty hard to run down.

Best Trifecta

Outstanding filly Our Femme Fatale (4)  makes here return here and while she’ll be too short to back straight we can make some cash by isolating her to win in a skinny Trifecta.
4/ 1,2,5,9/ 1,2,5,9. $60 gets 500%.

Quaddie
1,3,5,6,9,10/ 2,4,5/ 7,12/ 1,3,6,7. $72 gets 50%.

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Cobram

THE GAME PLAN for Cobram – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

The Money Races

Race 3

Not a strong race for the mares and there appear to be limited winning/place chances so I’m attacking it via a trifecta and hoping for a decent dividend.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

2,3,6/ 2,3,4,6/ 2,3,4,5,6.  $30 gets you 370.37%

Race 5

Our Warwick Lad looks the one to beat here and I can’t see him missing the top two so I’m going to base some trifectas around him.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

4/ 5,10,12/ 2,5,6,7,9,10,11,12.  $60 gets you 285.71%

5,10,12/ 4/ 2,5,6,7,9,10,11,12.  $40 gets you 190.47%

Race 6

Twindet, Jumbalaya Lombo and Riddle Me That look to have a slight edge on their rivals in a tricky race and I think they are a value base to have some first fours.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

1,2,7/ 1,2,7/ 1,2,7/ Field.  $40 gets you 133.33%

1,2,7/ 1,2,7/ Field/ 1,2,7.  $40 gets you 133.33%
1,2,7/ Field/ 1,2,7/ 1,2,7.  $20 gets you 66.66%

Quaddies (x2) $100 Outlay

3/ 4,5,10,12/ 1,2,7/ 1,2,6,7,8.  $50 gets you 83.33%

4,5,6,7/ 4,5,10,12/ 1,2,7/ 1,2,6,7,8.  $50 gets you 20.83%