Good Form Preview - Tuesday Night at Mildura

THE GAME PLAN for Mildura – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Tonight’s meeting features heats of the Vicbred Super Series for the 3YO fillies and 4YO mares, plus we get to see Maastricht strive to remain unbeaten this campaign in the open class race of the evening so it should be super viewing, but I can’t really find a race where we can play some exotics so I’m pinning my faith on a couple of Best Bets and a crack at the Quaddie where some value in Race 6 will help us reap a decent dividend.  Here we go!

BEST BETS

Mammals Maker (Race 2 no. 2) $1.90           $100 win

I’ve been quite taken by this fillies form of late, especially her victory at Melton three back where she blitzed her rivals by a space in 1:56.9, not to mention her latest run there when gallant in defeat behind Im Smouldering after doing all the work in the run.  She looks beautifully placed from barrier 2 tonight and whether she gets the lead or sits close to the speed I think she will be too strong.

Jilliby Daphne (Race 4 no. 5) $2.40     $100 win

This mare made the ‘Horses To Follow’ section of the Herald Sun yesterday and it is no surprise why as she was super in defeat at Geelong last start when third to Echeveria in 1:55.6 after parking out and although she is likely to have to punch the breeze once more tonight outside of main rival Hexham Heartbeat I still think she will get the cash.

QUADDIES x 2 $100 Total Spend

1,5/ 2,3,4,9/ 2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11/ 3.  $50 gets you 78.12%

1,5/ 2,3,4,9/ 2,3,6,7,8,9,10,11/ 1,2,5.  $50 gets you 26.04%

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Maryborough

The Game Plan for Maryborough – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

There’s no sugar coating it, this is a very tough meeting on which to make money, but I am gambling on two main ideal. One, that we’ve found some genuine value and if any of our four value/roughie tips win well end well in the black and two, that the Quaddie will pay big money and that by playing wide we’ll give ourselves a chance at a very decent collect.

Best Bet

Classy Guy (Race 2 no. 9) $1.90 ($40 Win)
As mentioned in today’s Herald sun form comment, this guy is a blistering beginner who would have been $1.20 here from a front line draw but I’m just hoping that the second-line alley means value for us punters. Put simply, his main rivals here in Aleppo Tiger (4) & Galeforce Grin (7) are pretty limited and with his natural speed he should be able to hunt them down from anywhere in transit.

Best Value

Gavlenn Sunset (Race 8 no. 8) $6 ($20 Each Way)
This guy showed plenty as a two-year-old and has been running on stoutly at his past couple of starts without quite breaking through. He is no moral but given I’m not completely sold on Aldebaran Sunstar (9) & in the hope we might get some value out of this guy I recommend you have an Each way lash and hope hope he gets some favours from the awkward draw.

Alta Antonio (Race 4 no. 6) $10 ($20 Each Way)

This bloke is both tough and genuine and while he did finish last when first-up for Andy Gath last start, he was only 8m from the winner and two horses who beat him there – Exciteusinthecity and Johnny Quid – were impressive winners on Friday night at Melton. I don’t think we’ll get the $10 quoted in today’s Herald Sun but even at $6 he’s worth an Each Way wager (7 horse field & all).

Best Roughies

Marios Dream (Race 6 no. 1) $31 & Waikare Sun (Race 6 no. 2) $26 ($5 by $15 on both)
These two are obviously in the same race today but importantly, they are both good beginners from the mobile start and will be in the firing line throughout. It’s a handy race but I can’t see any budding superstars drawn poorly and the even nature of the event should ensure that those up the front have a significant advantage over their rivals. Don’t break the bank but have something the win and triple the place on both of these and you just might get a very tidy collect.

Quaddies (x2)

1,5,6/ 4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12/ 1,2,4,6,9,11,12/ 7. $42 gets 25%
1,5,6/ 4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12/ 1,2,4,6,9,11,12/ 2,4,6,9. $58 gets 7.51%

 

Good Form Preview - Sunday Session at Cranbourne

THE GAME PLAN for Cranbourne – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Tonight’s meeting looks a ripper from an exotic point of view and I’ve come up with Races 4,5 and 6 as the best ones to attack, plus I’m keen on Machin Out in Race 7, have found a Star Trialler in the 2YO and I’ll be having a crack at the Quaddie too.  Here we go!

BEST VALUE BET

Machin Out (Race 7 no. 9) $2.20         $100 win

This bloke has been freshened up by Lance Justice for tonight’s assignment and I think he will be mighty hard to beat.  Here’s why.  1.  Before a let up he had been mixing it with the likes of Jilliby Ablett, Kotare Roland, Washington Heritage and Savesomtimetodream, all of whom would win this by panels.  2.  There will be some speed early in this with Courageous Spirit, Incoming Flight and Aftermidnight Sam all expected to run the gate, which will suit this guy beautifully as he will get a great run through.  3.  I can see Jason Hackett waiting until the dust settles up front, making the move to sit outside the leader and from there I think he will prove a shade too strong.

THE MONEY RACES

Race 4

There are four strong winning chances here with not a lot between them and I think they will all have their share of admirers so there looks to be some value on offer and I’m going to play the below Trifecta for $100 total spend.

1,2,5,11/ 1,2,5,11/ 1,2,5,6,8,11.  $100 gets you 208.33%

Race 5

There are three standout horses here in the shape of Now And Forever, Authorized and Im Living The Dream and I think they will dominate so I’m going to use them as a base for some First Fours.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

1,4,8/ 1,4,8/ 1,4,8/ 2,3,9,10.  $52 gets you 216.66%

1,4,8/ 1,4,8/ 2,3,9,10/ 1,4,8.  $36 gets you 150%

1,4,8/ 2,3,9,10/ 1,4,8/ 1,4,8.  $12 gets you 50%

Race 6

Similar to Race 5 I think there are only three possible winning chances in Ymbro Toto, Sals Mo and The Smirker and I will again use them as a base for some First Fours.  There is a greater risk involved with this particular race but if we are on the money the dividend will be quite juicy.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

1,3,11/ 1,3,11/ 1,3,11/ 2,6,7,8,9.  $45 gets you 150%

1,3,11/ 1,3,11/ 2,6,7,8,9/ 1,3,11.  $40 gets you 133.33%

1,3,11/ 2,6,7,8,9/ 1,3,11/ 1,3,11.  $15 gets you 50%

QUADDIE

1,2,5,11/ 1,4,8/ 1,3,11/ 2,9.  $100 gets you 138.88%

STAR TRIALLER

Watch This Spot (Race 3 no. 3) $3.20

Kiwi-bred son of Elsu who is making his Aussie debut tonight for the powerful Dean Braun stable and this guy is sure to be well-fancied first up after showing talent in two trials back in his homeland, the latest of those at Rangiora back in early April where he ran home strongly at the end of a 57.3 final half.

Good Form Preview - Saturday Night at Bray Raceway

THE GAME PLAN for Ballarat – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Tonight’s meeting is a very competitive one with no real stand out bets on the program so I’ve decided to go on a First Four Frenzy!  I’ve come up with Races 2,3,4 and 7 as the best to target and have outlined the bets below with a total spend of $400, which along with my $100 Quaddie will take my outlay for the night to $500.  Here we go!

FIRST FOUR FRENZY

Race 2

5/ 6,9,10/ 6,9,10/ 6,9,10.  $60 gets you 1000%

6,9,10/ 5/ 6,9,10/ 6,9,10.  $40 gets you 666.66%

Race 3

Boxed 1,2,7,8,9.  $100 gets you 83.33%

Race 4

1,6/ 1,6/ 2,3,4,5/ Field.  $50 gets you 78.12%

1,6/ 2,3,4,5/ 1,6/ Field.  $50 gets you 78.12%

Race 7

8/ 3,5,7,9/ 3,4,5,7,9,10/ 1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10.  $72 gets you 60%

3,5,7,9/ 8/ 3,4,5,7,9,10/ 1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10.  $28 gets you 23.33%

*For those of you who aren’t too fussed on the above First Four Frenzy and would just like to back a few horses tonight then here are my suggestions.

BEST BET

Wounded (Race 2 no. 5) $2.20

BEST VALUE BETS

Easy Lightning (Race 4 no. 1) $6.50

Artoc (Race 5 no. 7) $10

QUADDIES X 2 $100 Total Spend

1,6/ 1,2,3,7,12/ 1,7,8,9,10/ 8.  $50 gets you 100%

1,6/ 1,2,3,7,12/ 1,7,8,9,10/ 3,5,7,9.  $50 gets you 25%

Good Form Preview - Jewels Day @ Ashburton

The Game Plan for Jewels Day - with Michael Guerin (@guerinsports)

Here is the simplest advice for punters considering backing almost any horses drawn wide at the Harness Jewels today -- don’t.
You may be tempted by good odds for class animals, like Isaiah or Franco Nelson, but unless the Ashburton track turns into a mudbath today wide draws aren’t going to be fun for horses or punters.
As much as Ashburton looks like a fair racetrack the super-fast times in elite level racing these days means even on the biggest tracks mile races are dominated by leaders because they don’t come back to those in the second half of the field.
So while not all the races today will be won by the horses in the lead, trail or one-one starting the last 800m, most will.
The most obvious exception could be Daenerys Targaryen  (R2, No.8) because wide draws can easily be trumped by good manners in a two-year-old trot.
She is getting things right at a time when the most talented of this crop, One Over Da Moon (13) is getting them wrong.
If the latter brings his A-game he can still win a race where Twentytwo (12) and Trouble Rieu (7) appeal as each way value.
But that might be just about it for the wide draws today, although Christen Me (R7, No.13) is almost certain to come from his second line draw and win because he is a 1:50 miler racing horses capable of nothing like that.
Jason Rulz (11), Field Officer (1) and Lets Elope (2) are the best trifectas hope there.
As hot as Christen Me will be Adore Me (R3, No.3) will be even shorter as she is a freak, bordering on champion and Horse of the Year.
The most interesting part of her race will be whether Delightful Christian (5) has a crack at her early and then what time Adore Me paces as she wins by about three lengths.
The opening race sets up beautifully for the three favourites Carpenters Daughter (2), Pemberton Shard (1) and Elusive Chick (11) to settle and dominate but Carpenters Daughter is a mare who has plenty of seasonal issues, so the other pair provide better value.
As straight forward as the three-year-old trot looks a mistake by one favourite Royal Aspirations (1) could greatly hinder the other Blitzthemcalder (10) who is drawn to follow him out.
If they are both on their best behaviour then they should lead-trail and Blitzthemcalder would be narrowly favoured to run past the Kiwi trotter.
But they both have their quirks and Prime Power (7) with his gate speed and Sheemon (12) with his manners, appeal as at least place value, maybe each way in the case of the former.
Venus Serena (R5, No.5) is another of the big guns today to draw well and she is also one of the few who probably could have won even if she hadn’t.
Her autumn Alexandra Park form was extremely dominant and she is in the zone. With her gate speed it would be a surprise if she didn’t get the front and from there the race would be hers to lose.
Sabellian (2) is the best drawn of the Mark Purdon trio and has the gate speed to look for an early trail, with the surprise of the race being Purdon choosing to partner Rocknroll Arden (13), giving up the drive on Te Amo Bromac (7).
All are chances but the best place value is Snooki (10) who should do no work on the markers so her $3.50 fixed place quote is very fair.
The four-year-old trot comes down to whether Escapee (R6, No.1) behaves herself and races up to her best form because if she does she should win.
Stent (5) is an obvious danger while the Flying Isa (6), who won the juvenile Jewels here two years ago looks one of the genuine each way value chances of the day around the $10 mark as he will like the mobile and sprint trip.
Aussie raider Allblack Stride (R8, No.4) looks the leader and the one to catch in the juvenile pace but there is plenty of talent drawn to be sitting around him, including Racer (1), Maxim (5), Regulus (6) and Sky Major (11).
Sky Major could be the blowout sitting just off the speed but the his chances and those of Isaiah (8) could well depend on how fast the crucial second 400m sectional is paced.
The best has been saved for last race with four group one winners meeting in the three-year-old male pace but Border Control (1) has the advantage.
He has the gate speed to lead and then choose to stay there or hand up, and if so, who to.
He may not have the raw class of Ohoka Punter (3), Bit Of A Legend (5) or Franco Nelson (8) but what beats him will win.
Bit Of A Legend looks back to his best and is therefore the most likely danger in a great field for what is usually the race of the day.

Best Bet
Venus Serena (Race 5 no. 5) $2 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

Has dominated the fillies and had gate speed to get the front. Trialled well last week and should win.

Next Best Bet

Escapee (Race 6 no. 11) $2.30 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
Speed freak mare who has had shoeing change this week and ready to try for all the way win.

Best Value/ Each Way

Sky Major (Race 8 no. 11) $9/$2.14 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
Should get good run through and has quick sprint so $12 fixed very fair price.

Best Roughie/Place

Sheemon (Race 4 no. 12) $41/$6 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
Very consistent trotter who could duck to fence and follow the big guns, getting a drag into third.