THE GAME PLAN for Shepparton – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)
Best Bet
Forbidden Forest (Race 2 no. 11) $3
This guy has had the two runs back from a break for solid efforts behind smart types Royal Hustler and My Hard Copy on this circuit and to say that he will relish the drop in grade tonight is an understatement.He does have the poor draw to overcome and will have to do the work in the run but his class should see him go very close in what is a moderate affair.
Best Roughie
Charli Springfield (Race 1 no. 1) $21
Handy type who wasn’t disgraced last time at Ballarat when fifth to star filly Our Femme Fatale and her narrow third to Korobeit Angel (Rogers Passion 2nd) at Swan Hill prior where she trailed the speed was quite good.She looks like sitting behind Rogers Passion once more tonight from the ace alley and is worthy of a ticket each way at the generous odds.
The Money Races
Race 1
Rogers Passion looks the leader here and the one to beat but she is by no means a moral with Illawong Joyful, Charli Springfield and Luke Hobbs in with a shot at knocking her off so I’m going to play safe and take the below trifectas for $100 total spend.
2/ 1,8,12/ 1,3,4,6,8,10,12. $50 gets you 277.77%
1,8,12/ 2/ 1,3,4,6,8,10,12. $50 gets you 277.77%
Race 4
Majestic Reign holds all the aces from the pole draw and should win but she is rising in class a tad tonight and it wouldn’t totally shock me to see her rolled so I’m going to err on the side of caution and take the below trifectas for $100 total spend.
1/ 2,3,5,6,8/ 2,3,5,6,8.$80 gets you 400%
2,3,5/ 1/ 2,3,5,6,8.$30 gets you 166.66%
Race 5
Just Live Life is the yardstick here and although he draws widely he should push forward, race handy and be extremely hard to get past with Ezee Duzit Lombo his only threat so I’m going to base my trifectas around the pair.Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.
7/ 9/ 1,2,3,8,10.$40 gets you 800%
7/ 1,2,3,8,10/ 9.$40 gets you 800%
9/ 7/ 1,2,3,8,10.$20 gets you 400%
Race 6
Modern Velocity ticks all the boxed here as she should get a comfortable lead and over the short course she will take plenty of running down, but she is still in danger of being rolled so I’m going to again play safe with the below trifectas for $100 total spend.
2/ 1,3,4/ 1,3,4,5,8,12.$80 gets you 533.83%
1,4/ 2/ 1,3,4,5,8,12.$20 gets you 200%
Race 7
This is a cracking race to wind up the Quaddie with Whata Avenue, My Hard Copy and Dobop looking much better than their opposition and I think they will fill the trifecta so I’m boxing them up for $100 total spend to hopefully cap off a successful night on the punt.
The Game Plan for
Kilmore – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington) Best Value Minti Choice (Race 5
no. 9) $7 There is no doubt that Lively
Princess (1) is flying this campaign and deserves to rate on top here but
the ace alley is no spoil for her here as she’s not a quick beginner and may
get incarcerated in transit. If that occurs then this guy, who is also low
flying right now, can upset the apple cart and at the $7 quoted in today’s Herald
Sun he’s worth an Each Way crack.
Best Roughie Shot From The Hip
(Race 7 no. 3) $12 He is an enigmatic but gifted pacer who returns to racing
for the first time in four months today. A recent trial placegetter behind Vic
Derby heat winner Macha at Melton, this bloke should be much shorter than $12
here and can also be backed on a Each Way basis.
Money Race Race 2 Many punters shy at Claiming races but I love them. The form
is usually well established and as long as you remain vigilant about horses
changing hands then they rarely thrown up too many curveballs. This race is no
different. Keeper Of The Fire (5) has
been excellent since shifting to Shaun Kittel and while he’s not the best horse
engaged he’ll almost certainly fill a hole. It’s for that very reason that we’re
roving around him in Trifectas today as outlined below.
On
a night where there are going to be a number of short-priced favourites, some
deservedly so, others not so much, but I’ve come up with the below trio who
just look too good in their respective races.
If
you’re feeling daring, and I always am, you can take them in an all-up on TAB
Fixed Odds which will net you $4.25 for every $1 you invest.
Im
Corzin Terror (Race 1 no. 4) $1.40 TAB Fixed Odds – Click
here to bet on this horse now
Star
5YO who is unbeaten on Aussie soil for Dean Braun and he looked simply awesome
winning his heat of this final at Shepparton where he
worked to the lead from his second row draw and scooted home in 27.1 to win by
a space. He takes on some smart customers tonight but draws to advantage
and he should have little trouble justifying his short quote.
Guaranteed
(Race 5 no. 3) $1.60 TAB Fixed Odds – Click
here to bet on this horse now
Boom
colt who only enhanced his reputation by winning his heat of tonight’s Derby
here last Saturday night where he worked to the lead, cruised along in front
and threw down a 26.9 final split at his hapless rivals. He comes up with
a beaut draw once more, should get to the lead again and from there it will
shut the gate.
Dr
Hook (Race 6 no. 7) $1.90 TAB Fixed Odds – Click
here to bet on this horse now
Star
Kiwi trotter who was terrific winning his heat of tonight’s final at Ballarat 8
days ago where he was forced to sit in the breeze but still managed to
overpower Kasyanov at the end of a 57.7 last half. He draws outside his
main danger tonight but Mister Zion isn’t a fast beginner and I think this guy
will establish a break on him early, possibly obtain the lead and if that
scenario plays out it is hard to see him being beaten.
Best
Value Bet
Guns
N Roses (Race 9 no. 4) $10/$2 TAB Fixed Odds - Click
here to bet on this horse now
The
best ‘over’ I can find on TAB Fixed Odds is this guy. I know he can be
hard to catch, but I’ve been impressed with his form of late, particularly his
gallant third to the star Kiwi Smolda in 1:54.5 last week where he did his
share of work in the run from a back row draw. He will find tonight’s
race easier, looks a big chance of getting to the pegs first and from there
Gavin Lang will give him every chance. I think he’s a terrific gamble at
the generous odds quoted. I genuinely think he is a $4 chance.
The
Money Races
Race
4
There
is no doubt that Smolda is the one to beat here and he does deserve to be a
short-priced favourite, but I don’t think it will be a pushover for him and it
wouldn’t shock me if Melpark Major caused a mini boilover, so with that in
mind, I’m going to take the below trifectas for $100 total spend to cover all
bases.
6/
10/ 2,3,4,9. $40 gets you 1000%
6/
2,3,4,9/ 10. $40 gets you 1000%
10/
6/ 2,3,4,9. $20 gets you 500%
Race
8
The
TAB have kindly boosted the F4 pool here by $25,000 and have guaranteed
$100,000 will be in the kitty so in what is an open Hunter Cup I think it looks
a great race to have a crack at and hope for a decent dividend. I think
Mah Sish is the one to beat and I’d be surprised if he missed the top three so
I’m going to base my bets around him. Below is how I’m playing with $150
total spend.
5/
3,4,10,12,14/ 3,4,10,12,14/ Field. $50 gets you 22.72%
3,4,10,12,14/
5/ 3,4,10,12,14/ Field. $50 gets you 22.72%
3,4,10,12,14/
3,4,10,12,14/ 5/ Field. $50 gets you 22.72%
Big6’s
x 2 $100 Outlay
5,6,7,8/
6,10/ 3/ 6,7/ 4,5,10/ 3,4,5,10,12,14. $70 gets you 24.3%
5,6,7,8/
6,10/ 4,6,9/ 6,7/ 4,5,10/ 3,4,5,10,12,14. $30 gets you 3.47%
Quaddies
x 2 $100 Outlay
3/
6,7/ 4,5,10/ 3,4,5,10,12,14. $70 gets you 194.44%
4,6,9/
6,7/ 4,5,10/ 3,4,5,10,12,14. $30 gets you 27.77%
Jason
Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
A
G Hunter Cup night provides the best atmosphere of any Victorian trots meeting
every year and I’m sure 2013 will be no different. From a punting perspective,
I’ll be concentrating on the Quaddie & BIG6. That’s where I’m hoping to
make my money. However I’m also keen on Race 1 and hopefully I’ve found a
couple of value options.
Best
Value
Bellas
Delight (Race 7 no. 5) $5.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click
here to bet on this horse now
There
are a lot of shorties on tonight’s 10-race card – and most will probably get
the job done – but if you’d like something you can sink your teeth into then
this mare is the one. A luckless second to Pembrook Caesar (4) second-up
this prep, she went on to rattle home for fifth behind Sushi Sushi and Mah Sish
in the Bendigo Pacing Cup. She had no luck at Menangle last time and back to
the track where she’s won a Breeders Crown & two Vicbred titles she should
be much, much shorter than she is with TAB right now.
Melpark Major (Race 4 no. 10) $4 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
I am biased here as 'Donny' is my favourite horse but the philosophy in backing him tonight is pretty simple. To me - and most others - this is a two-horse race between Melpark Major (10) & Smolda (6). In my opinion, whichever horse settles in front of the other will win & I have Donny tracking through behind noted fast-starter Alchemy (3) and staying ahead of his major danger. I'm also confident that Smolda (6) is far from wound up & should be at his most vulnerable tonight.
Best Place Bet
Ginger Bliss (Race 5 no. 7) $4 Place TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
I'm shocked that this guy is still such big odds to run a drum. Simply put, he is the fastest 3YO off the mobile arm in Victoria and there's a massive hope he'll cross the lot before handing up to a suitable horse - most likely race favourite Guaranteed (3). If that scenario pans out he becomes a $1.60 shot to fill a hole so the odds right now FOR A PLACE are juicy indeed.
Best
Trifecta
Race
1
Im
Corzin Terror (4) is
a star. He can lead or sit parked here and win with comfort either way but he’s
at prohibitive odds so this is an ideal First 4 race. I’m playing a little wide
but w/ a little bit of luck we should reap some reward.
I
have already opened the shoulders backing Mah Sish (5) to win the
feature race of the night, but as I’ve said a few times this week, the Hunter
Cup is the Melbourne Cup of the trots, so playing wide – and for value – and
hoping for a collect is a pretty good philosophy. Here’s how I’m attacking the
race that stops a (trotting) nation.
THE GAME PLAN for Mildura – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)
Best Value Bets
Glacial (Race 1 no. 4) $3.50
This is a pretty open race to start the night but I really think this guy will be hard to beat.He hasn’t been dangerous in two goes this campaign but did trial well here last week when second to Washington Heritage, who would be $1.04 to beat these, and with a lack of any depth to his inside he is a great chance of working to the lead, which will see him very hard to run down.Back him each way on a 1 x 3 basis and I doubt you’ll miss.
One Wise Man (Race 3 no. 5) $5.50
There’s no doubt that Washington Heritage is the one to beat here but he does have the extreme draw to overcome over the short course, which is never easy, so in the pursuit of value I think this bloke is in with a shot at causing an upset.He begins well, looks a big chance of getting the lead and once there Jodi Quinlan will give him every possible hope. I’m having something on him each way on a 1 x 3 basis.
The Money Race
Race 7
Looks a bit of a tricky night for multiple players but I thought this race looked an ‘easy kill’ with Daylight Dan in front and Shelby Cruzin on his back so the best way to attack it is via a trifecta with those two to run 1,2 and the remaining Shayne Cramp runners to fill third.Don’t expect a huge dividend but it should prove profitable nonetheless.Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.
THE GAME PLAN for Warragul – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)
The Money Races
Race 3
Classy filly Musical Delight resumes from a spell here and although she may be a little ‘soft’ she should have little trouble disposing of this lot first up with Local Vicka Lombo and Glenferrie Park clearly the next best so I’m going to take them in a trifecta for plenty as well as another one with some other runners to fill third as a plan B.Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.
5/ 3,10/ 3,10. $60 gets you 3000%
5/ 3,10/ 1,2,4,6,7,8. $40 gets you 333.33%
Race 4
These bottom up C0 races can sometimes be a bit tricky but Dicky Beach and Ymbro Awesome draw ideally and look better than their rivals so I’m going to base a couple of trifectas around the pair,Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.
2,5/ 2,5/ 1,3,7,8,9.$50 gets you 500%
2,5/ 1,3,7,8,9/ 2,5.$50 gets you 500%
Race 5
Heats of this final were conducted here 11 days ago with Cute Art clearly the testing material on what we witnessed there, but she does draw the back row so I’m going to take a few trifectas with her to win and Sheila Blige to fill 2nd or 3rd plus another with her to get rolled as a saver.Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.
9/ 1/ 2,3,4,7,8,10,11.$28 gets you 400%
9/ 2,3,4,7,8,10,11/ 1.$28 gets you 400%
1,4,7,8/ 9/ 1,2,3,4,7,8,10,11.$44 gets you 157.14%
Best Roughie
Hellfire Angel (Race 5 no. 8) $15
Didn’t run a bad race for third in her heat of today’s final behind Cute Art at her second run back from a break where she pulled hard in the 1 x 1 before working home well in a slippery last quarter.She draws to trail likely leader Sheila Blige and if Gavin Lang can get her to settle it wouldn’t surprise me to see her get up via the passing lane at generous odds.
